The first time the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers tangled, the Detroit Lions weren’t the Lions. They were the Portsmouth Spartans, in 1930. They were four years away from moving to Detroit, becoming the Lions, and morphing into your Thanksgiving football appetizer.
Game Information
Green Bay Packers (4-6) at Detroit Lions (8-2)
Kickoff: Thursday, 12:30 ET, FOX or fuboTV
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Point Spread: Detroit -7.5
Total: 47, Over -110, Under -110
Moneyline: Detroit -350, Green Bay +275
And until recently, that was an appetizer Lions’ fans felt went down like tainted cranberries. Starting with a 47-13 Packers blowout in November 1930, Green Bay has owned this series. The Packers are 105-76-7 in the 188 games between the two. That includes 21 Thanksgiving games, including every Turkey Day between 1951 and 1963.
Recently, however, Detroit has reclaimed a sense of ownership. The two are 5-5 straight up in their last 10, but the Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Packers. They’ve also won seven consecutive games against NFC North opponents, including a 34-20 beating of Green Bay back in late September.
Let’s break down what these two offer.
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The Pack Gets Back
Somehow, Green Bay has won two of its last three, using the Matthew Stafford-less L.A. Rams and the underwhelming L.A. Chargers as their springboard into the fringes of the NFC playoff picture. The sweep of L.A. was sandwiched around an underwhelming loss to the offensively-punchless Pittsburgh Steelers. Whether they stay on the fringes or drop out of the picture depends on two factors: their defense continuing to overperform and quarterback Jordan Love figuring out how to complete passes away from Lambeau Field.
Green Bay’s defense has allowed only 20.2 points per game (10th in the NFL). It’s a middling 17th in yards allowed (327.9). As for Love, the Packers’ passer has completed only 56.9% of his passes on the road, the site of six of Love’s 10 interceptions. With top running back Aaron Jones likely out, the load falls on A.J. Dillon to keep the Lions from blanketing the air. Expect this to play a part in where this one goes.
The Lions Don’t Sleep Today
Contrast that with what the Lions are up to this season. They’re averaging 30 points a game at home, where QB Jared Goff is completing nearly 71% of his passes and throwing 10 of his 16 TDs. The Lions are among the league’s most prolific offenses. They rank only behind the Miami Dolphins in yards per game (399.6). They are sixth in points per game (27.2).
At the same time, they’re scoring points at Ford Field, the Lions are giving up more than their fair share. Visiting teams are averaging 21.4 points per game against the Lions at home, which becomes easier to process when you realize Detroit surrendered 38 to the Chargers and 28 to the offensively-inept Chicago Bears. It becomes even easier to process when you realize the Lions are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game—nearly 23 a game.
So, What’s the Call?
Detroit is a 7.5-point favorite, terra incognita to a team that hasn’t been Thanksgiving Day favorites since 2016. The Lions haven’t exactly gobbled up their opponents, losing six in a row and going 3-3 ATS. They are 2-1 ATS this season when favored by a touchdown or greater, failing to cover only against the Bears.
Green Bay hasn’t exactly been a covering machine. The Packers are 2-3 ATS on the road this year and haven’t covered in their last three road games.
So, when you put these all in the mixmaster, taking the Lions and giving the points seems to be the play. And it’s not a bad one for all the reasons we illustrated, including 7-3 ATS this season. But a better bet may be the Over-47, since the Lions are 5-2 to the Over in their last seven. They can yield points as fast as they score them.
Now, add in the Lions are 9-4 to the Over when they’re favored under Head Coach Dan Campbell and the Over is the tastiest wager on this game’s menu.
