The NFL Super Bowl Odds are out and available. The odds for NFL Conference and Division winners are posted as well.
One of the advantages of wagering early is the odds are better prior to the start of training camps. The bookmakers don’t have any information that they can use to influence the price. Everything before OTA and training camps is the anticipation of how the public will respond to the number posted.
Odds to Win Super Bowl
- Kansas City Chiefs +600
- Philadelphia Eagles +750
- San Francisco 49ers +850
- Buffalo Bills +900
- Cincinnati Bengals +1000
- New York Jets +1500
- Dallas Cowboys +1500
- Baltimore Ravens +2200
- Miami Dolphins +2500
- Jacksonville Jaguars +2500
- LA Chargers +2500
- Detroit Lions +2500
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
The bettor should look at the team that he is contemplating a wager on and ask how likely this is to happen?
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Know the Teams Before Betting
A Super Bowl wager on the Houston Texans would not be a sound investment on a team that only won three games last year. If you look at another team in the AFC South, the Tennessee Titans, you have a team that would justify an investment. While the Titans only won seven games last year and failed to make the playoffs, they won the division the previous two years.
The odds of the Titans winning the Super Bowl are +10000. The Texans have the odds on the board at +20000. A sizable win and a more likely option for the longshot guy that’s reading this.
Let’s look at a play that is a little sharper. The Philadelphia Eagles were the NFC Conference Champions. While they lost in a keenly contested game in the Super Bowl to the Kansas City Chiefs, they have great value to win the Lombardi Trophy this season. The Eagles are +750 to win the Super Bowl. Only Kansas City has better odds.
The Chiefs are in a tougher conference and the 49ers will have to figure out the quarterback position. With three viable candidates, Brock Purdy, who is uncertain if he will play in 2023, Trey Lance returning from injury, and Sam Darnold, who is looking for a fresh start after underachieving with the New York Jets and the Carolina Panthers. The Eagles improved their team during the NFL Draft and via trades. The Birds are the likeliest of the three teams to win the Super Bowl right now.
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Conference, Divisional Odds Provide More Value
If we look at the Conference Odds, we get a little more value than a Super Bowl bet. The top six teams received odds boost if they were selected to win the conference. Only the Dallas Cowboys odds did not equate to half of the odds projected for them to win the Super Bowl.
The Conference odds on Dallas are +650. If you like the Cowboys to win the NFC, I would wait for the price to rise slightly and then jump on it. This is a case where waiting will increase your payout.
The Divisional winners in the NFL usually come down to the top two teams in the division. There is wiggle room for a dark horse if an injury occurs to a key position player or a slew of injuries to a certain side of the ball. Here are several of the top divisional winner odds from teams ot at the top of the Super Bowl odds projection.
- Baltimore Ravens +275
- Jacksonville Jaguars -170
- Minnesota Vikings +310
- Seattle Seahawks +310
Each of these teams made the playoffs last year and two of them, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Minnesota Vikings won their divisions in 2022. The Ravens didn’t have Lamar Jackson for the final five games and the playoff game against division rival Cincinnati Bengals.
If Jackson is healthy that could swing the AFC North back to Baltimore. The Jags are the strongest team in their division and merit laying a price to take them. While the price is higher than the Chiefs to win their division at -160 or the Eagles at -105, the competition in the AFC South is not daunting.
As you make your future wagers on the Super Bowl, Conference and Division winners, look for value in the price and the likelihood of the event occurring.
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