Before we deep-dive into the three College Football Playoff games this week, it’s worth first spotlighting the opening matchup. Wednesday’s Cotton Bowl features No. 2 Ohio State taking on No. 10 Miami in a pivotal postseason showdown.
This is one of those games where we pick the favorite—in this case, Ohio State—to win, while we pick the underdog (Miami) to cover.
The Hurricanes don’t have the overall talent to knock off the defending national champions. Miami has the offensive line, defense, team speed, and underlying momentum to keep this matchup tight. That was evident in its 10–3, grind-it-out road win over Texas A&M in the opening round of the College Football Playoff.
The oddsmakers favor the Buckeyes by 9.5 points, and the Buckeyes are covering at an 83.3 percent clip this (10-2-1). They also expect another rock fight, with a modest total running from 40.5 to 42.5 points. We’re expecting the same, with Ohio State eking out a narrow victory that goes Under Caesars total of 41.5—but features a Miami cover.
Last week: 2-1. Season (ATS): 29-25.
Orange Bowl
Aside from being the most entertaining game of the playoff quartet, this game comes down to your personal definition of football dominance. Do you favor speed? Or do you favor power?
If speed is your thing, you’re all-in on the Oregon Ducks, who possess a gear few teams in the country can keep up with. Oregon ranks second in yards per rush (5.9) and fourth in yards per play (7.2), two of the five offensive categories in which the Ducks have a top-10 national ranking. That includes points per game (39.2, ninth). Oregon takes care of the ball, turning it over only 11 times this year.
If power is your passion, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are hard to pass up. Behind standout LB Jacob Rodriguez, the Red Raiders have one of the best front-sevens in the country. They lead the nation in rushing yards allowed (68.5) and rushing yards per play (a miserly 2.3). They are top-10 in seven other defensive categories, including points (10.9, third), yards per game (254.4, third), yards per play (4.0, third), and yards per completion (9.3, second). To that, we add a plus-17 turnover margin.
Both feature numerous NFL draft picks on both sides of the line. And both lead the nation in explosive plays (plays of more than 20 yards). Two key factors stand out in this matchup. Oregon cannot afford a repeat of its alarming second-half defensive collapse against James Madison. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has established itself as one of the most consistent and dependable teams for bettors to back. The Red Raiders are 9-1 ATS in their last 10.
This is where Oregon flew the coop last year, getting dominated by eventual national champion Ohio State. We love the Ducks’ speed and don’t think a repeat is in line. But Oregon is 1-2 ATS when favored by less than a touchdown, and we do like the Red Raiders getting points in what should be a nail-biter.
Best Bet: Texas Tech +2.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Rose Bowl
As a Southern California native growing up an hour from Pasadena, welcome to the Gridiron Guru’s favorite bowl game. Watching “The Grandaddy of Them All” on a sunny New Year’s Day is baked into his DNA.
What isn’t baked into his DNA—or anyone who has watched this iconic game in the last 60 years—is INDIANA! And INDIANA is anywhere from a 6.5-point to a 7-point favorite. Two years ago, if you had said, “I’m taking Indiana against Alabama, and oh yeah, they’re playing in the Rose Bowl,” you would have been a candidate for being committed.
We’re committed, however, to the Hoosiers here. And why isn’t it hard to figure out? The Alabama Crimson Tide struggles to run the ball (122nd in rushing yards per game, 125th in rushing yards per play). This plays right into Indiana’s No. 1-ranked rushing defense per attempt (26.8) and No. 3 rush defense in yards allowed (77.6).
In turn, that means Alabama QB Ty Simpson has to do it all. And he has to do it all against a defense averaging 8.6 tackles for loss per game and holding teams to 257.2 yards per game (fourth).
We’re not saying this is impossible; after all, Kalen DeBoer has Alabama 6-2 SU against top-10 teams in his two seasons. And Simpson has found a way to wriggle the Tide out of underdog situations. Alabama is 2-1 SU as an underdog. But this is where the Tide recedes from the CFP.
Best Bet: Indiana -7 (-105 at BetMGM)
Sugar Bowl
Here comes the second CFP rematch for Ole Miss. And while familiarity may breed contempt, especially among SEC teams, in this case, it doesn’t breed success.
When we last saw these two, the Georgia Bulldogs were rolling to a 43-35 victory behind 510 yards of offense that defined “complete game.” The Bulldogs combined QB Gunner Stockton’s 289 yards and four TDs with a run game that ground the Rebels into paste—221 yards and 4.5 yards per rush.
What wasn’t lost in that game and will be brought up regularly is the fact that Georgia rallied from a 9-point deficit with 17 fourth-quarter points. And the Bulldogs did this against an Ole Miss team that isn’t as good as it was then. Yes, the Rebels are 6-0 since that October 18 loss. But their only victories of that six came against Oklahoma and in its CFP rematch against an outmanned Group of 5 Tulane.
What will also be brought up is the fact that Georgia is a better team than it was 2 ½ months ago. The Bulldogs held three upper-tier Power Four opponents—Texas, Georgia Tech, and Alabama—to a combined 26 points. That defensive performance suggests they are well equipped to neutralize Ole Miss’ second-ranked offense, which averages 498 yards per game.
Georgia was 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS as a favorite of seven points or less. There is a chance for a back-door cover—Ole Miss is 8-5 ATS this year. But there’s a better chance the better team right now simply closes that door.
Best Bet: Georgia -6.5 (-115 at Caesars)
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