To illustrate how dominant Scottie Scheffler is relative to his peers on the PGA Tour, we last found the world’s No. 1-ranked player going into the final round of the WM Phoenix Open five shots behind a packed leaderboard; nine players were within two shots of the lead. And we found him in that final round playing his B-minus game.
His B-minus game left him one shot shy of the Chris Gotterup/Hideki Matsuyama playoff. Yes, Scheffler managed to beat 122 other players without his A-material.
And now we find Scheffler joining 79 of his peers in the first Signature Event of the PGA Tour season—the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Those events feature a $20 million purse, no cuts, and an 80-player field. It’s the third consecutive year the iconic course on the Monterey Peninsula has hosted a Signature Event, and a stellar field that includes No. 2 Rory McIlroy, No. 3 Justin Rose, and No. 4 Tommy Fleetwood awaits Scheffler.
Not to mention less-than-stellar odds. Scheffler is an understandably miserly +300 at BetMGM to hoist the trophy Sunday afternoon. Understandable, considering he is No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Approach (1.056), No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Par-5s (43.4 over his last 50 rounds), No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Total—Short Courses (1.837), and No. 2 in Average Proximity Feet Gained Toward the Hole from 100-125 yards (7.12). Those are all key metrics for Pebble Beach, one of the shorter courses on the PGA Tour and one featuring the smallest greens on Tour.
With that factor looming as large as the Monterey Peninsula landscape will loom on your TV, you want players on your tickets who sing arias with their wedges and short irons. Pebble Beach isn’t a bomber’s course, but owning the par-5s and nailing your approaches are crucial.
Along with those metrics, Pebble Beach rewards the old Woody Allen saying that “80 percent of success is showing up.” The last 16 winners here played in at least two previous AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Ams, and 15 of the last 17 winners own at least a 16th-or-better finish in one of their previous three starts here. Course knowledge on a classic course like Pebble Beach, or its sister course, Spyglass Hill, always plays well.
With those factors, here are a few wagers we like.
Scottie Scheffler First Round Lead (+650)
Yes, you can get Scheffler at the aforementioned +300 to win, but we’re hungry for more value. He has consecutive top 10s at Pebble Beach and two years ago, fired a Friday-best 64. With his approach game anchoring his considerable overall game, Scheffler can dismantle Pebble Beach with one of those rounds that leaves the rest of the field talking to themselves.
Russell Henley Outright Winner (+2,800)
Props to any of you for knowing Russell Henley is the No. 6-ranked player in the world. But that’s only one reason why Henley is your trendy pick to overcome Scheffler, McIlroy et-al. He finished T5 here last year, is second in Good Drives Percentage (how often a player hits the green on their second shot) at 64.5, eighth in Strokes Gained: Approach (0.774), and ninth in Strokes Gained: Around the Green (.0.356). And did you know few players outside of Scheffler have been more consistent over the last nine months than Henley? He hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in almost nine months, which encompasses 10 events and includes top-10s in both the U.S. Open and Open Championship. This year, he already has a top-10 at the American Express. Henley is as solid a pick as you can find across the board.
Pierceson Coody Top 20 (+152)
Despite this being Coody’s Pebble Beach debut, you can get him to win at +5,600, which isn’t a bad flier to take. But we like him for a more cashable top-20 finish, starting with the fact that he has three top-10 and six top-20 finishes over his last 10 starts. This includes his runner-up at Torrey Pines and 10th last week at Phoenix. He’s 4-for-4 in top-20s this season, with his worst finish at T18 at the American Express. Yes, Coody can mash the ball, but where he stands out this week is on Pebble Beach’s poa greens. He is the No. 1-ranked putter on poa in the field. Need more? Coody is sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 12th in Birdie Rate. He’s another candidate you can float across the board: win, top-10, and top-20.
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