The PGA Championship used the be the last major of the season but since it moved to May, some of the luster has come off the tournament. But it doesn’t keep the bettors from finding the angles at the Valhalla golf club.
Scottie Scheffler, winner of two straight and four of his last five events, is the tournament favorite this week at +450.
Only one other player—Rory McIlroy, who won at Valhalla in 2014—is shorter than 10/1 on the odds board, based partly on his victory last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. Rounding out the top three is defending champion Brooks Koepka (+1400).
Max Homa Outright (+3300) & Top-10 Finish (+275)
Max Homa is due.
There’s no course data to cite with Homa this week. However, he’s excelled historically at Quail Hollow, which is the second-most correlative course, per datagolf.com.
Last week, Homa finished T-8th at the North Carolina track. That’s his second consecutive top-10 at Quail Hollow, where he also won in 2019.
Plus, Homa has quietly notched two consecutive top-10’s at major championships, including a T-3 at the Masters.
In terms of his statistical modeling, there’s clear evidence supporting a strong week for Homa.
Sample his last 36 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards, and bettors will find he’s fifth in the field in SG: T2G.
Additionally, he’s 11th in Par 4 Efficiency: 500+ yards and 26th in Par 5 Efficiency over his last 36 rounds.
Homa also sits ninth in opportunities gained on tracks longer than 7,400 yards and ranks eighth in birdies or better gained in his last 36 rounds on bent greens.
If Homa can boost his iron play expect a strong finish this week.
Xander Schauffele Top-10 Finish (+150)
If not for Scheffler’s dominance this season, we’d likely be discussing Schauffele’s brilliant run of form.
He notched a runner-up finish at Quail Hollow last week to McIlroy—his second straight second-place finish in North Carolina—and has four top-10’s in his last five starts.
Expand the sample to consider all events since the American Express and bettors will find Schauffele has no missed cuts, eight top-20’s and seven top-10’s.
That’s pretty impressive for a guy who has gone 14-2-2 in his last three starts at the most correlative track to Valhalla.
If you’re going to bet on an outright victory, it makes sense to hedge with at Top-10 on Schauffele,
He’s not without some blemishes—50th in opportunities gained on long courses and 54th in Par 4 Efficiency: 500+ yards.
But, counterbalancing those rankings is the fact he’s fourth in Greens in Regulation (GIR) gained, 17th in birdies or better gained on bent greens and 16th in scrambling over the last 36 rounds.
As a result, if you can get a solid price on him to finish top-10 it makes sense.
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Wyndham Clark (+2500)
Valhalla presents a different course profile to Los Angeles Country Club , where Clark won a major championship in 2023.
However, Clark has shown he can excel equally on long and short courses.
He claimed a win at Quail Hollow in 2023 and finished second to Scheffler at Bay Hill earlier this year.
Additionally, following a slow start in January, Clark has quietly posted four top 5 finishes in his last eight events, including a win at Pebble Beach.
Clark has also demonstrated a keen ability to play his best on the most challenging courses.
Since the beginning of the 2023 PGA Tour season, he’s excelled at different and complementary categories, and especially at long courses, like Valhalla.
Finally, Clark has posted strong records in key stats this year—fourth in Par 4 Efficiency, sixth in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards and 15th in Par 5 Efficiency.
Based on those outputs, Clark is worth a bet to capture his second major championship.
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