The baseball season is a month old. We’ve got five full months before the regular season wraps up, which is all that matters for the MVP voters.
The Yankees’ Aaron Judge burst out of the gate and has a stat line of (AVG/HR/RBI/OPS) .400/12/34/1.241 as of May 8. He’s actually cooled off recently, but still is -1100 to be crowned the Most Valuable Player in the American League. He’s led the Yankees to first place in the AL East and has made them forget that Juan Soto exited for the across-town Mets in the offseason.
His rivals include the Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (.308/5/21/.886) is +1000, but has been heating up in early May.
From there, it drops off precipitously. The Rangers’ Corey Seager comes in at +8000, the Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez and the Blue Jays’ Vlad Guerrero at +10000.
The wild card in any MVP status is injury. Judge has been an iron man in recent years, and Witt is on track for the most hits, runs, and games played in a season—a stat that is so historic, the last time that happened would be in 1896.
So one of those two is likely to be the AL MVP.
National League Legends
The National League is still up in the air, despite Shohei Ohtani having a decent start to the season (.299/10/15/1.031). He’s still the favorite at +175, but he has a lot of company. Fernando Tatis Jr. (.319/8/19/.936) is raking it in San Diego and comes in at +500. But he’s surpassed by Kyle Tucker (.284/9/31/.943) in his first year with the Cubs—quickly becoming the fan favorite—at +400.
But it doesn’t stop there. The National League has standouts on almost every team. Take the Arizona Diamondbacks. They are struggling after a quick start, but their right fielder, Corbin Carroll (.297/11/28/.983), is replicating his rookie year after a mild slump last year.
The Mets took a long time to re-sign Pete Alonso (.328/9/34/1.085), but they are very glad they did. He’s leading the team despite the shadow of Juan Soto (.261/7/17/.863), who is heating up after a slow start. Alonso has the betting edge at +450, while Soto might be a good bet at +1600. And the Mets have a third contender as well. Francisco Lindor (.287/7/24/.830) at (+2500). Sometimes, having three good players on one team hurts all their chances at MVP because they split the vote, so keep that in mind.
Also Rans
The MVP is often tied to the best teams, so the Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies, and others all have possible contenders despite their early-season numbers. So taking a flyer on a longshot at this time of the year isn’t that crazy.
For example, outside of Ohtani, two other Dodgers have traditionally played big roles in good years. Mookie Betts (.258/5/22/.773), for example, has had a slow start. He’s trying to be the regular shortstop for the team, so maybe he’s distracted. But a +5000 odds aren’t too shabby. Freddie Freeman (.362/8/29/1.148) was injured early in the year, but has come on strong. And his +1600 reflects that. Who can forget his walkoff grand slam in Game 1 of last year’s World Series?
Or how about the Phillies? Bryce Harper (.243/6/19/.795) is the best player on the team. If they win the NL East—Mets fans know only too well about that team’s proclivity to fail late in the year—Harper could be a great choice at +5000.
The same thing goes for Elly De La Cruz (.265/5/25/.745), the shortstop of the Reds and one of the most exciting players in baseball. Should the Cubs run out of gas—and Cubs fans know the same thing about folding that Mets’ fans do—and the Reds take the division, De La Cruz could be in the running at +5000.
Yes, it’s early in the year, but strange things happen in baseball. Take a flyer on any of these longshots, and you have a rooting interest most of the year.
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