It is officially spring, not because the calendar says so but because baseball season is up next. Opening Day is set for Thursday, March 30th, when all 30 MLB teams will get their seasons underway. With just a handful of days remaining until then, it’s time to analyze offseason moves and dive into some futures bets for the season.
Sportsbooks nationwide are tasked with setting season win totals for all 30 MLB teams based on what they expect each team to accomplish during the year. These figures are calculated by taking into account the outcomes of last year, offseason moves, player growth and much more. While those setting these lines are experts and can be extremely accurate, there is certainly no exact science to this and there are always lines you can exploit to your advantage.
The MLB regular season is by far the longest in American sports and is a marathon, not a sprint. Lots can happen during the season, most notably injuries, slumps and trades. When making these preseason futures bets it’s difficult to predict these factors. This level of unknown can always come back to bite teams — and bettors in the long run.
Now that the dust has settled on the offseason, and all other changes considered, there are a handful of win totals worth exploring. The thing about the MLB is there are always going to be teams that have much different results one season compared to the next, just like there will always be the more consistent clubs year after year. Let’s see which franchises offer the most value with their futures bets this season.
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Betting the Top Dogs
The San Diego Padres have done everything in their power to build the strongest roster in the MLB. They added All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts as well as a powerful lefty designated hitter in Matt Carpenter. They will also be getting their franchise player in Fernando Tatis, Jr. He returns from suspension and will be shifting to right field this year. Their starting and relief pitching remains very strong in support of arguably the best lineup in the sport. The line for the Padres is set at 94. This should be a layup for a team that could very well finish the season with the National League’s best record.
Just a few months after coming two wins away from a championship, the Philadelphia Phillies have somehow improved their roster heading into the new league year. They secured the league’s top free agent in shortstop Trea Turner. He should bridge the gap nicely until franchise leader Bryce Harper is able to return from elbow surgery. In addition to a frightening lineup the team also made several moves to improve their pitching staff, most notably adding starter Taijuan Walker and closer Craig Kimbrel. The team is much more well-rounded in multiple aspects this season. They should be a significant threat to get right back to the World Series. A year after winning 87 games, surpassing this year’s win total of 89 seems extremely likely.
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Breakout Season for Mariners?
The Seattle Mariners have been on the rise for a few years now, as they have become very savvy with their consistent offseason and in-season additions. The team’s strength last season was their pitching. They decided to bolster offense this offseason to account for a lack of power in the lineup in 2022. They added second baseman Kolten Wong, right fielder Teoscar Hernandez, and utility man AJ Pollock. Last season the M’s broke a 20-year postseason drought by winning 90 games and look ready to make that a tradition. Their win total is only 88 this year and the team should improve, or at least repeat their 90-win output.
Look for Angels, Red Sox to Overachieve
The entire world has been rooting for the Los Angeles Angels to become a playoff team since the incredible duo of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani was assembled a few years ago. Well, this year looks like their best bet to qualify for the postseason. They last did so back in 2014.
Both Trout and Ohtani have been among the best players in the World Baseball Classic. They each led teams USA and Japan, respectively, to the championship game.
The Angels finally added a top-end starting pitcher in Tyler Anderson, which the fanbase has been begging for years now. The team also made a series of position players additions. They added infielders Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela as well as outfielder Hunter Renfroe. The Angels seems to find a way to disappoint every season. Still, they should definitely be able to surpass 81.5 wins and post at least a winning season.
The Boston Red Sox enter the season with minimal expectations in a loaded American League East division. The team has made some under-the-radar moves during the offseason that give them a chance to be competitive. They signed a couple of pitchers with strong track records in starter Corey Kluber and closer Kenley Jansen. They also added infielders Justin Turner and Adalberto Mondesi to go along with Adam Duvall in the outfield.
Their biggest splash of all, however, was signing top-international free agent Masataka Yoshida. He was arguably the best player in the World Baseball Classic. He will instantly become a Rookie of the Year favorite. This team should have a very strong chance at eclipsing 77.5 wins this season.
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