As expected, the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder are facing the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. But despite being the heavy favorite, they lost game 1. In the Eastern Conference, the New York Knicks beat the Cleveland Cavs in Game 1.
The Thunder are the favorite to repeat as NBA champions at -165 odds, according to BetMGM. The Spurs (+310) are the second favorite, followed by the Knicks (+550) and Cavs (+2000). After the opening games, the odds shifted—Thunder were +130, Spurs were +160, Knicks were +430, and Cavs were +4000.
It was not surprising the top two seeds were eliminated in the wide-open Eastern Conference. The #4 Cavs (52-30) went on the road to win Game 7 and defeated the #1 Detroit Pistons in the conference semifinals. The #7 Philadelphia 76ers upset the heavily favored #2 Boston Celtics in the first round, but were swept by the #3 Knicks in the second round.
The Western Conference Finals feature a heavyweight showdown between the #1 Thunder (64-18) and #2 Spurs (62-20). It’s the first time a pair of 62-win teams meet in the postseason since the 1998 NBA Finals (Bulls vs. Jazz). It’s also the first time it happened in the conference finals since 1981 (Celtics vs. 76ers).
Knicks: Smoking Hot, Clear Path to the Finals
Playoff Record: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS
Conference Odds: -265
Championship Odds: +550
The Knicks could be rusty with an eight-day layoff entering the conference finals. Then again, that extra rest was beneficial for OG Anunoby, who missed two games last series with a hamstring injury. Anunoby, the most versatile defender on the Knicks, emerged as the second-best scorer (21.4 ppg).
The Knicks will ride-or-die with Jalen Brunson (27.4 ppg, 6.1 assists). Although Karl-Anthony Towns saw his scoring (17.4 ppg) dip, he leads the team in rebounds (10.0) and assists (6.4). The Knicks have looked unstoppable since Towns took over with the point-forward duties. Towns unlocked the offense by allowing Brunson to play off-ball more frequently.
Leading the league with a +19.4 scoring differential, the Knicks outscored their opponents by 180 points, which is also one of the reasons they’re 7-3 ATS.
The Knicks are also shooting lights out from 3-point range (40.8%), which tops the league. The starters have been especially sharp, including Anunoby (53.8%), Towns (48.3%), and Brunson (40.9%). The Knicks also have reliable snipers off the bench with Miles McBride (44.9%), Landry Shamet (43.5%), and Jose Alvarado (52.9%).
They went 2-1 against the Cavs in the regular season. Mike Brown’s rotation can go 10 or 11 deep depending on the situation. They have a much deeper bench, and they’re well rested.
Many teams struggle to match up against the Cavs’ imposing frontcourt duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Knicks are better equipped to handle them if Towns avoids foul trouble and Anunoby remains healthy. Brown has also experimented with bigger lineups featuring both Towns and Mitchell Robinson on the floor together.
The Knicks have a plan to disrupt the high-octane Cavs and their backcourt. The energetic Josh Hart (10.3 ppg) is the soul of the Knicks and their second-best rebounder (9.0). Hart’s primary assignment is to slow down and harass James Harden.
Mikal Bridges (13.0 ppg) busted out of his offensive slump, but now he draws the toughest defensive assignment against Donovan Mitchell. Don’t be surprised to see Anunoby defending Mitchell as well.
Cavs: Winning Back-to-Back Game 7s
Playoff Record: 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS
Conference Odds: +210
Championship Odds: +2000
The Cavs are damn lucky to still be alive after surviving two close calls. The feisty Toronto Raptors almost bounced them in the first round. The Cavs then rallied back from a 2-0 deficit against the Pistons to win the second round. Despite a poor performance from James Harden in Game 7, the Cavs advanced when the Pistons imploded.
You never know when Donovan Mitchell (25.6 ppg) will explode for a monster game. He posted four 30+ point games this postseason, including a 43-point eruption against the Pistons in Game 4 to tie the series.
The Cavs acquired Harden (20.1 ppg, 6.2 assists) to alleviate Mitchell’s scoring burden. He’s done a great job distributing the rock, especially among the big guys, but his tendency to fade in big games is troubling. If Harden shows up, then the Cavs can beat the Knicks.
The Cavs rely on a bombardment of 3-pointers (37.4 per game), but the Knicks are also the best team defending the 3-point line (31.2%). If the Cavs can knock down their treys, they can hang tough with the Knicks’ revamped offense. Sam Merrill (40.4%), Max Strus (37%), and Dean Wade (36.8%) lead the Cavs, but they’ll need better efficiency and shot selection from Harden (33.3%) and Mitchell (31.1%). Mitchell’s erratic shooting is concerning after the Pistons held him to 28.8%.
The big men tandem of Mobley (17.0 ppg) and Allen (13.1 ppg) anchors both ends of the court. They averaged 1.9 blocks apiece and combined for 15.3 rebounds.
The Cavs lack bench depth, which the Knicks can expose if the series extends to six or seven games. Fatigue becomes a factor later in a series, especially for a team that survived consecutive seven-game matchups.
The Cavs went 1-2 straight up against the Knicks this season. The Cavs were one of the worst betting teams in the NBA (33-49 ATS), but they went 7-7 ATS in the playoffs.
Thunder: Defending Champs Face a Real Opponent
Playoff Record: 8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS
Conference Odds: -260
Championship Odds: -165
The Thunder had yet to lose a game this postseason until Game 1 after sweeping the Phoenix Suns in the first round and the L.A. Lakers in the second round. Seven of the eight victories were by at least nine points. Mark Dagineault’s squad posted the second-best scoring margin this postseason at +16.6.
The Thunder now face their biggest challenger in the Spurs, who dominated the regular season series with four wins.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander captured the MVP in back-to-back years, and he leads all players in playoff scoring with 29.1 ppg. Jalen Williams (20.5 ppg) returns after missing six games with a strained hamstring. Ajay Mitchell (18.8 ppg) continues his fantastic season. Chet Holmgren (18.6 ppg), the fourth member of the Thunder averaging 18+ points, also leads the team with 9.1 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, and 1.4 steals per game.
The Thunder boast a deep bench with a trio of elite 3-point shooters in Jared McCain (54.2%), Cason Wallace (46.2%), and Alex Caruso (38.2%). The trio averages 22.2 ppg for the second unit.
Lu Dort, a defensive pest, earned a reputation as a dirty player. If the Spurs take early control of this series, expect Dort to resort to bullying tactics with Victor Wembanyama as his main target.
Spurs: Wemby Time
Playoff Record: 8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS
Conference Odds: +210
Championship Odds: +310
The Spurs were the second-best betting team in the regular season, and they continued that success in the playoffs at 8-3 ATS.
The Spurs’ three postseason losses came by a combined 10 points, and Wembanyama failed to finish two of those games due to a concussion and ejection.
This series is Wemby’s chance to shine. He leads the Spurs in key statistical categories with 20.3 ppg, 10.7 rebounds, and 4.1 blocks per game. If you don’t count the games he didn’t finish, he’s averaging 24.3 ppg. His 3-point shooting has been inconsistent. He shot 43.8% from deep in the first round, but Minnesota held him to 25% in the last round.
Stephon Castle (19.9 ppg) and De’Aaron Fox (18.8 ppg) are reliable secondary scoring options. Rookie Dylan Harper continues to impress off the bench. Harper averaged 14.7 ppg and 6.2 rebounds per game against Minnesota.
The Spurs and Thunder shoot an identical 38.4% from deep, but the Thunder attempt four more treys per game. The Spurs have the second-best 3-point defense this postseason (31.9%). If the Spurs can thwart the Thunder’s 3-point attack, they’ll put themselves in a prime spot to win.
Against the Thunder, the Spurs went 4-1, beating their rival in three different cities, including a win in Las Vegas during the NBA Cup in December.
The Spurs gave the Thunder problems this season because they defend them well, especially on the perimeter. They’re a disciplined team that doesn’t commit many fouls. That’s paramount when facing a foul-baiter and flopper like Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Thunder is the more experienced team and holds a slight edge in coaching. It will be nearly impossible to win Game 7 in OKC, so the Spurs will have to lock up this series in six games or fewer.
Pauly’s Conference Finals Predictions: Knicks in 6 to win the East as a best bet. Spurs in 6 to win the West as a long shot.
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