Ten teams changed head coaches this offseason, which is nearly one-third of the league. The New York Giants hired John Harbuagh, who won a Super Bowl with the 2012 Baltimore Ravens. The Pittsburgh Steelers hired Mike McCarthy, who led the 2010 Green Bay Packers to a Super Bowl victory.
Six new head coaches are rookies, including Klint Kubiak. The Las Vegas Raiders hired Kubiak fresh off his victory in the Super Bowl as the offensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks.
Harbaugh opens as the betting favorite to win the NFL Coach of the Year at +600, according to BetMGM. Jesse Minter (Baltimore Ravens) is second overall at +700, followed by Joe Brady (Buffalo Bills) at +1100, and Robert Saleh (Tennessee Titans) at +1200.
John Harbaugh (Giants)
Coach of the Year Odds: +600
Giants Record Last Season: 4-13
Projected Win Totals: 7.5
Super Bowl Odds: +6000
The Giants barely survived one of the NFL’s ugliest stretches over the last nine years. They posted a 44-104-1 record with eight losing seasons and one playoff appearance. They finished in last place in the NFC East in the previous two seasons.
Since Tom Coughlin’s departure in 2015, the Giants churned through four head coaches. Bob McAdoo lasted 28 games and was fired late into the 2017 season after a 2-10 start. Pat Shurmur went 9-23 over the next two seasons, followed by Joe Judge (10-23) in his two seasons. Brian Daboll (20-40-1) led the Giants to their only winning season in the last nine years with a Wild Card appearance in 2022. However, the Giants grew progressively worse under Daboll’s leadership, and they fired him after a 2-8 start last season.
Harbaugh is the most accomplished coach the Giants hired in a very long time. The betting market expects an immediate turnaround, which is why Harbaugh is the frontrunner to win Coach of the Year. The Giants have a projected win total of 7.5, which seems ambitious considering they won only seven games in the last two seasons.
Jesse Minter (Ravens)
Coach of the Year Odds: +750
Ravens Record Last Season: 8-9
Projected Win Totals: 11.5
Super Bowl Odds: +1100
The Ravens parted ways with Harbaugh after 18 seasons and one championship. They hired Jesse Minter, who served as an assistant under Harbaugh for four seasons. Minter was most recently the defensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Chargers.
Expectations are high for Minter in his rookie season. The Ravens are the betting favorite to win the rough-and-tumble AFC North at -115, and they’re the second-highest AFC team to win the Super Bowl at +1100.
Joe Brady (Bills)
Coach of the Year Odds: +1100
Bills Record Last Season: 12-5
Projected Win Totals: 10.5
Super Bowl Odds: +1000
The Bills won 12 games last year, yet still fired head coach Sean McDermott after a heartbreaking overtime playoff loss to the Denver Broncos.
Joe Brady spent the previous two seasons in Buffalo as their offensive coordinator, where he developed a strong relationship with Josh Allen. The Bills hired from within the organization and promoted Brady, who became the NFL’s youngest head coach at 36.
The Bills are the second favorite on BetMGM‘s futures board at +1000 odds. Talk about a high-pressure situation for Brady. The Bills are opening a new stadium too, so the Bills Mafia are fired up for this upcoming season.
Robert Saleh (Titans)
Coach of the Year Odds: +1200
Titans Record Last Season: 3-14
Projected Win Totals: 6.5
Super Bowl Odds: +25000
Robert Saleh went 20-26 as the head coach of the New York Jets. Owner Woody Johnson made Saleh a scapegoat at the start of the 2024 season and fired him. The Jets imploded after his dismissal, particularly the defense, which proved that Saleh was not solely responsible for the team’s struggles.
It’s doubtful the Titans can win enough games to make Saleh a worthy Coach of the Year candidate or exceed their win total of 6.5. However, keep an eye on the Titans as a team that could cover games late in the season. Say what you want about the “LOL Jets,” but the Jets played hard under Saleh, especially the defense in the second half of the season.
Mike McCarthy (Steelers)
Coach of the Year Odds: +1400
Steelers Record Last Season: 10-7
Projected Win Totals: 8.5
Super Bowl Odds: +8000
The Steelers parted ways with Mike Tomlin, who never posted a losing season in his 19 years with the team. Although Tomlin stepped down, speculation persisted that he was forced out.
The Steelers tapped Mike McCarthy as their new head coach. McCarthy, a Pittsburgh native, has a career record of 174-112-2 as the head coach of the Packers and Cowboys. Aside from the year he won the Super Bowl with the Packers in 2010, he has a 7-11 record in the postseason, including a 5-7 record over his last 12 playoff games.
McCarthy also reunites with quarterback Aaron Rodgers. They won a Super Bowl together in Green Bay 16 years ago. Their relationship eventually soured, and the Packers fired McCarthy in 2018. The Steelers should’ve gone after a younger coach like Kubiak or LaFleur instead of McCarthy.
Kevin Stefanski (Falcons)
Coach of the Year Odds: +1500
Falcons Record Last Season: 8-9
Projected Win Totals: 7.5
Super Bowl Odds: +1000
Kevin Stefanski gets a much-needed fresh start in Atlanta after a turbulent six-year run in Cleveland. Despite a 45-56 record, Stefanski won the Coach of the Year twice. The front office made numerous bad decisions in the last few seasons, creating one of the league’s most unstable quarterback situations. The lowlight was the Deshaun Watson trade. The Browns overpaid to acquire Watson, then foolishly inked him to a hefty five-year, fully guaranteed contract.
After back-to-back 8-9 seasons, the Falcons fired head coach Raheem Morris. They brought in Stefanski in hopes he can get the most out of their offensive stars like Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. New GM Ian Cunningham made a questionable addition with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. Stefanski just left a team with a messy QB situation, but if Tua doesn’t work out or gets injured again, at least he’s only under contract for one season.
Klint Kubiak (Raiders)
Coach of the Year Odds: +1600
Raiders Record Last Season: 3-14
Projected Win Totals: 5.5
Super Bowl Odds: +15000
The Raiders are desperate for stability after two decades of futility. They advanced to the postseason only twice since 2002 without any playoff victories. They posted two winning seasons in the last 23 years, with just one since they moved from Oakland to Las Vegas in 2020.
After Jon Gruden reigned in 2021, the Raiders miscalculated with their head coaching hires. Josh McDaniels lasted 25 games, and Antonio Pierce coached only 26 games. Pete Caroll went 3-14 last season in a one-and-done stint.
The Raiders are betting that Klint Kubiak will turn around the franchise. Kubiak’s outside and wide zone philosophy was the core of the Seahawks’ rushing attack, which should benefit Ashton Jeanty. The Raiders wisely tapped veteran Kirk Cousins as the starting quarterback. They won’t throw Fernando Mendoza, Heisman Trophy winner and #1 overall pick, into the fire until he’s ready.
You hate to see a talented young coach get stuck with a troubled franchise like the Raiders. They also play in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL and are doomed to finish in last place. The top-heavy AFC West includes the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, and L.A. Chargers. All three teams have win totals around 10 games or better.
Todd Monken (Browns)
Coach of the Year Odds: +2200
Browns Record Last Season: 5-12
Projected Win Totals: 5.5
Super Bowl Odds: +25000
Todd Monken finally gets a shot at a head coaching gig. He won back-to-back national championships as the offensive coordinator with the Georgia Bulldogs before he returned to the NFL as an OC.
Monken spent the last three seasons as the OC of the Ravens, so it’s interesting to note that the Ravens hired Jesse Minter instead of promoting him to head coach after they parted ways with Harbaugh.
Cleveland jumped at the chance to hire Monken to replace Stefanski. Monken’s first tough decision is to start Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders at QB in Week 1.
Jeff Hafley (Dolphins)
Coach of the Year Odds: +4000
Dolphins Record Last Season: 7-10
Projected Win Totals: 3.5
Super Bowl Odds: +50000
Jeff Hafley was the head coach of Boston College for four seasons before he joined the Green Bay Packers as the defensive coordinator over the previous two seasons.
The Dolphins cleared house in the offseason, firing long-time GM Chris Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel. Hafley was a surprising choice to replace McDaniel. Then again, new general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan was familiar with Hafley as the head of player personnel with the Packers.
The Dolphins are in rebuilding mode. With Malik Willis slated as quarterback, they have a win total of 3.5. It’s a low bar for a rookie head coach in Hafley, yet some fans want the Dolphins to tank for a shot at a franchise quarterback like Arch Manning in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Mike LaFleur (Cardinals)
Coach of the Year Odds: +4000
Cardinals Record Last Season: 3-14
Projected Win Totals: 3.5
Super Bowl Odds: +50000
Mike LaFleur, the younger brother of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, spent the last five years as an offensive coordinator, including three seasons under Sean McVay with the L.A. Rams. He was also a passing game coordinator under Kyle Shanahan for four seasons in San Francisco. He studied under two excellent offensive gurus in Shanahan and McVay.
It was only a matter of time before LaFleur became a head coach, but the Cardinals are a tough fit. They’re a troubled franchise in a strong division. The NFC West has the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. And the Rams are the favorite to win Super Bowl 61. Bookies lack faith in the Cardinals, who won only three games last season and have a projected win total of only 3.5.
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