We crunched the numbers and looked at the last 20 Super Bowl matchups. We learned that if you lack a juggernaut offense or don’t have a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback, then you better have a very good defense if you expect to have a chance to reach the Super Bowl.
Last year’s Super Bowl was a matchup between two teams among the top three best defenses in the NFL. The San Francisco 49ers were one of the best all-around teams last year with an offense that generated the third-highest scoring offense at 28.9 ppg, along with the third-best defense that allowed only 17.5 ppg. They won the NFC Championship but lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 58 in an overtime thriller.
The Chiefs held opponents to 17.3 points per game in the regular season last year as the second-best scoring defense behind the Baltimore Ravens (16.5 ppg). When fans think about the Chiefs, they think about a high-octane offense led by Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. But it was their defense anchored by Chris Jones that helped them win the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons.
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The Data: Top 8 Defense Helps
Since the 2004 season, six Super Bowl champions finished in the top two in scoring defense that season. Nine champions had a top-four defense, and 13 of the last 20 Super Bowl winners had a top-eight scoring defense.
In the last 20 years, the runner-up in the Super Bowl had a top-three defense at least six times and two of them were ranked #1 overall. And there were 13 instances when the runner was in the top eight overall.
As far as matchups go over the last 20 years, the Super Bowl had at least one team with a top-five defense on 13 occasions. And 18 matchups included at least one team that finished the regular season in the top eight scoring defense.
There were four instances in which the Super Bowl teams both finished in the top five in defense, and eight times they both finished in the top eight.
Let’s take a quick look at defenses heading into the season, including the Top 7 in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) to find the best value with their Super Bowl odds or conference championship odds.
Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl Odds: +1000
AFC Championship Odds: +550
Win Total: 11.5 o/u
2023 Record: 13-4
2023 PPG Allowed: 16.5
2023 DVOA Ranking: 1
2024 DVOA Ranking: 1
The Ravens allowed only 16.5 points per game in 2023, which lead the NFL in defensive scoring. When you have a smothering defense like the Ravens, it’s inevitable that their defensive coordinator will get offered a head coaching job. Former DC Mike Macdonald earned a well-deserved promotion as the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks. Former linebackers coach Zach Orr takes over for Macdonald as the Ravens new DC.
All eyes are on Justin Madubuike who tallied 13 sacks last year and set a franchise record for most sacks by a defensive tackle. They lost linebacker Patrick Queen, but still have Roquan Smith dominating the interior. Meanwhile, defensive back Kyle Hamilton was a Swiss army knife last season and lined up all over the field. The versatile Hamilton was tied for most sacks by a DB in 2023 with three.
If you’re looking for a value play on Super Bowl futures, it’s hard to ignore the Ravens and one of the top defenses in the league at +1000 odds.
Cleveland Browns
Super Bowl Odds: +4000
AFC Championship Odds: +2200
Win Total: 8.5 o/u
2023 Record: 11-6
2023 PPG Allowed: 21.3
2023 DVOA Ranking: 8
2024 DVOA Ranking: 2
Jim Schwartz‘s stingy defense allowed the fewest total yards in the NFL last season. The Browns epitomized smashmouth football last season. Myles Garret won the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year with 14 sacks, including 13 in the first ten games of the season. He made up for a subpar year from Za’Darius Smith, who’s expected to play much better this season. Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome are the cornerstones of the secondary.
The Browns’ defense keeps them in every game, but it’s Deshaun Watson and the offense that is the big question mark. The Browns could offer one of the best values on the board, at +4000 odds to win the Super Bowl, if Watson starts playing like he did for the Texans in 2020.
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New York Jets
Super Bowl Odds: +2000
AFC Championship Odds: +1100
Win Total: 9.5 o/u
2023 Record: 7-10
2023 PPG Allowed: 20.9
2023 DVOA Ranking: 24
2024 DVOA Ranking: 3
The Jets have one of the best D-lineman in Quinnen Williams, two great linebackers in CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams, and have a shutdown corner with Sauce Gardner.
The Jets have had a great defense the last few seasons despite an atrocious offense and inept offensive line. Even if Aaron Rodgers didn’t blow out his Achilles in the first game of the 2023 season, he would’ve had to overcome a horrendous O-line. Rodgers has fully recovered, and the Jets upgraded their O-line. Gang Green hopes their stellar defense can carry them into the playoffs, and hopefully Rodgers can work his magic and the Jets squeeze out just enough offense to make a deep run.
Bettors are not sold on the Jets… yet. If they start winning early in the season, expect the public to jump on the bandwagon. You can lock them in now at +1100 odds to win the AFC Championship and +2000 odds to win the Super Bowl.
San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl Odds: +600
NFC Championship Odds: +250
Win Total: 11.5 o/u
2023 Record: 12-5
2023 PPG Allowed: 17.5
2023 DOVA Ranking: 2
2024 DVOA Ranking: 4
The 49ers saw a spike in their broken tackle rate from 9.8% to 15.1%, but they vastly improved their secondary and defending the deep ball. Nick Bosa is their main dude once again. His sacks dipped from 18.5 to 10.5 because quarterbacks did everything possible to avoid his side of the field.
The 49ers had too many injuries in 2022 and missed a shot at advancing to the Super Bowl. They won the NFC last season but lost to the Chiefs in overtime in Super Bowl 58. The well-balanced 49ers are expected to have both a top five offense and defense this season, so it’s not surprising to see them among the favorites to win Super Bowl 59 at +600 odds.
Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl Odds: +1500
NFC Championship Odds: +700
Win Total: 10.5 o/u
2023 Record: 12-5
2023 PPG Allowed: 18.5
2023 DVOA Ranking: 4
2024 DVOA Ranking: 5
Mike Zimmer takes over as the Dallas Cowboys new defensive coordinator, and he inherits a Top 5 defense led by one of the best players in the league in Micah Parsons. Only three players in NFL history recorded more sacks than Parsons (40.5) in his first three seasons.
The Cowboys typically have a successful regular season until the wheels fall off the bus in the playoffs. That’s why they’re only +700 odds to win the NFC and +1500 odds to win their first Super Bowl in almost 30 years.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl Odds: +5000
AFC Championship Odds: +2800
Win Total: 8.5 o/u
2023 Record: 10-7
2023 PPG Allowed: 19.1
2023 DVOA Ranking: 9
2024 DVOA Ranking: 6
The Steelers’ defense is anchored by TJ Watt, who racked up 19 sacks last season. They also added linebacker Patrick Queen from the Ravens. They rebuilt a secondary around safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was nursing a knee and hamstring last season. Joey Porter Jr. stepped up in the second half of his rookie season, and he’s expected to make another big leap in his second season.
The Steelers have a Top 7 defense, but they could have a bottom five offense. Fans were thrilled when the Steelers finally ended a disastrous campaign with the predictable and snooze-worthy Matt Canada as their offensive coordinator. Yet, the Steelers missed a chance to making bold move by hiring an up-an-coming young coach as their new OC. They hired Arthur Smith instead. Smith lost his head coaching job with the Atlanta Falcons after two seasons, and now he inherits a QB room with Russell Wilson, and Justin Fields.
Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl Odds: +500
AFC Championship Odds: +300
Win Total: 11.5 o/u
2023 Record: 11-6
2023 PPG Allowed: 17.3
2023 DVOA Ranking: 5
2024 DVOA Ranking: 7
If the Chiefs have a shot at becoming the first team in NFL history to win three Super Bowls in a row, it’s because their defense will play a huge role once again. Aside from Chris Jones, the Chiefs boasted the youngest defense in the NFL last season, but they all thrived under defensive guru Steve Spagnuolo. The Chefs allowed 15.5 ppg in the playoffs and also held high-scoring teams like the Ravens and Miami Dolphins to under 10 points. During the 2023 regular season, the Chiefs allowed 24+ points only twice.
The Chiefs are +300 to win the AFC Championship for a third year in a row, and +500 odds for a Super Bowl three-peat.
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Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl Odds: +1500
AFC Championship Odds: +800
Win Total: 10.5 o/u
2023 Record: 11-6
2023 PPG Allowed: 18.3
2023 DVOA Ranking: 3
2024 DVOA Ranking: 12
The Buffalo Bills finished last season with the third-best defense in DVOA, but they lost a couple of key players which is why they slipped to #12 heading into 2024.
This will be a do-or-die season for head coach Sean McDermott. If the Bills fall short of a trip to the Super Bowl, he can kiss his job goodbye.
The Bills lost to the Chiefs three times in the last four postseasons, and Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 against Josh Allen in the playoffs since 2020. The Chiefs have been the Bills’ kryptonite. Could this finally be the year that Allen and the Bills come out on top? The legion of fans in Bills Mafia are getting restless. The Bills are +800 odds to win their first AFC Championship in three decades, and +1500 odds to win their franchise’s first Super Bowl.
Detroit Lions
Super Bowl Odds: +1200
NFC Championship Odds: +550
Win Total: 10.5 o/u
2023 Record: 12-5
2023 PPG Allowed: 23.2 ppg
2023 DVOA Ranking: 7
2024 DVOA Ranking: 13
Despite giving up a lot of points, the Detroit Lions finished seventh overall last season in DVOA. They’re ranked #13 at the start of this season with lots of room for improvement. The Lions unleashed a flurry of second-level blitzes last season as a deterrent against double-teaming Aidan Hutchinson (11.5 sacks). Safety Brian Branch had an impressive rookie campaign in 2023. The Lions are excited about incoming rookie CB Terrion Arnold, a first-round pick from Alabama.
The Lions were a “final four” team last season after losing to the 49ers in the NFC Championship. If their defense holds up, they can get another shot at a trip to the Super Bowl. The Lions are +550 odds to win the NFC and +1200 odds to win the Super Bowl.
