What a difference two weeks in November can make in the NFL futures market. The Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles are tied for the best record in the NFC at 8-2, and both teams are now co-favorites to win Super Bowl 60. According to an update from BetMGM, the Rams and Eagles are +600 odds to win the Super Bowl. This also marks the first time during the regular season that the defending champion Eagles are the Super Bowl favorite.
Let’s take a quick look at the contenders at the start of Week 12…
Philadelphia Eagles: Defending Champs Favorites Again
Record: 8-2
Super Bowl Odds: +600
The Eagles continue to win close games thanks to a much-improved defense. They’re ranked #8 in scoring defense, allowing 20.1 ppg. Since their bye in Week 9, they allowed 16 total points in their last two victories.
The offense, which is the highest-paid unit in the NFL, has been erratic all season. The Eagles generated 26 total points in the previous two games and still won both. Saquon Barkley’s output is significantly lower than last season’s bombastic performance. AJ Brown’s stats dropped off a cliff, and he has not been shy about his frustrations with the playcalling. At least the Tush Push is still unstoppable!
If the season ended today, the Eagles would secure the #1 seed in the NFC because they hold a tiebreaker over the Rams (in head-to-head win percentage).
L.A. Rams: Best All-Around Team
Record: 8-2
Super Bowl Odds: +600
The Rams are one of the premier teams in the NFC this season, courtesy of a top-five offense and defense. They edged out the Seattle Seahawks in Week 11 to seize sole possession of first place in the NFC West. Matthew Stafford’s MVP odds continue to improve, and he’s now +150 as the betting favorite over Drake Maye (+200) and Josh Allen (+475). The Rams would earn the #2 seed if the playoffs began today. If Stafford can remain healthy, the Rams are a bona fide contender as the best all-around team in the league.
Buffalo Bills: Back on Track
Record: 7-3
Super Bowl Odds: +850
The Bills bounced back from a shocking loss against the Miami Dolphins by winning a shootout against Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 11. The Bills begin their toughest stretch of the second half with four away games over the next five weeks. There’s also a Week 17 game against the Philadelphia Eagles that could be a potential Super Bowl 60 matchup.
At 7-3, the Buffalo Bills are the highest AFC team on the futures board at +850 odds. They’d also begin the playoffs as an AFC Wild Card team with the #5 seed.
Kansas City Chiefs: Best Team That Might Not Make the Playoffs?
Record: 5-5
Super Bowl Odds: +850
The Chiefs became the consensus favorite to win the Super Bowl after an impressive victory over the Detroit Lions in Week 6. They relinquished the top spot after a disappointing 22-19 loss against the Denver Broncos in Week 11. Their second loss in a row is somewhat troubling because it occurred after a bye week. Prior to their most recent loss, Andy Reid was 22-4 in his career after a bye week with a 9-3 post-bye record as the head coach of the Chiefs.
In the overall AFC standings, the Chiefs are 5-5 and find themselves in ninth place. Only the top seven teams from each conference advance to the postseason, so the Chiefs do not have much wiggle room.
The Chiefs were seeking a 10th consecutive division title entering this season. They’re currently in third place in the AFC West behind the Denver Broncos (9-2) and L.A. Chargers (7-4), and a long shot to win the division at +600 odds.
Last season, the Chiefs won 15 games but probably have a better team this year, yet they’re only 5-5. They caught a bit of luck last year with a 10-0 record in one-score games. This season, the Chiefs are unlucky and 0-5 in close games.
According to a prop bet from DraftKings, the Chiefs are a -185 favorite to secure a playoff berth. If you want to fade the Chiefs, they’re +150 odds to miss the postseason for the first time since 2014. It looks like they’ll have to finish the season with at least a 5-2 record if they expect to qualify for the postseason.
Detroit Lions: Still on the Prowl
Record: 6-4
Super Bowl Odds: +900
The Eagles recently defeated the Lions and prevailed in a defensive joust. The Lions were averaging 31 ppg before Week 11 but scored just 9 points in their worst offensive output of the season. Head coach Dan Campbell rarely backs down from a chance to go for it on fourth down, but the Lions went 0-for-5 on fourth-down conversions. The Eagles’ stonewall defense denied the Lions five times and momentarily knocked the Lions out of a potential playoff berth.
The Lions are 2-3 in their last five games, including 1-2 after their bye week. They’re currently on the playoff bubble in the NFC as the eighth-place team in the conference. They also slipped to third place in the NFC North behind the Chicago Bears (7-3) and Green Bay Packers (6-3-1).
Oddsmakers installed the Lions as a slight favorite to win the division at +120 odds just ahead of the Packers (+140) and Bears (+400). Despite this current hiccup, the Lions are fifth overall on BetMGM’s futures board at +900 odds to win the Super Bowl.
Keep an eye on a Week 15 showdown in L.A. against the Rams — that should be fun. The Lions could still be fighting for a playoff spot or a division title at the end of the season when they hit the road to play the Vikings on Christmas, and they end the season in Chicago against the Bears in Week 18.
Denver Broncos: Rocky Mountain High
Record: 9-2
Super Bowl Odds: +1500
After a 1-2 start, the surging Broncos won eight games in a row. They’re playing like a prototypical Sean Payton team with a stifling defense and just enough offense to win games. They allowed 17.5 ppg, which is the third-best scoring defense in the NFL. During their winning streak, the Broncos won six one-score games with a 5-0 record in games decided by three or fewer points.
After holding off the Chiefs in Week 11, the Broncos are tied for the best home record in the NFL this season with a perfect 6-0 at Mile High Field in Denver. The Broncos are now -310 odds to win the AFC West ahead of the Chiefs (+550) and Chargers (+550).
Indianapolis Colts: No Surprises, Legit Contender
Record: 8-2
Super Bowl Odds: +1100
Now that we have passed the midseason point, the Colts are no longer the surprise team in the NFL. Daniel Jones is playing excellent ball and has revitalized his career after a traumatic stint with the New York Giants. The true hero of the Colts and team MVP has been running back Jonathan Taylor (17 total touchdowns). The former NFL rushing leader is one of the primary reasons the Colts are near the top of the standings.
The Colts are the only team putting up 30+ points a game by averaging 32.1 ppg. The highest-scoring offense generates the most total yards in the league, just short of 400 per game. Jones engineers the third-best passing offense in the NFL while Taylor leads the third-best rushing attack. The Colts also have a Top 10 defense that is ranked #9 in scoring, allowing only 20.6 ppg.
The Colts will be fresh off a bye in Week 12 when they head to Kansas City to face the Chiefs, who are in a must-win spot.
Seattle Seahawks: Darnold Blues
Record: 7-3
Super Bowl Odds: +1200
Until Sam Darnold delivers a clutch performance in a big game, skeptics will continue to doubt him. Darnold threw four interceptions in a two-point loss against the Rams. The Seahawks coughed up first place in the NFC West but would still secure the #5 seed if the playoffs began today, thanks to a 7-3 record.
The high-octane Seahawks averaged 32.8 ppg in their previous eight games before the Rams held them to only 12 points and one touchdown in Week 11. They host the Colts in Week 14, which should be a wild shootout between the top two scoring teams in the NFL. They also have a rematch against the Rams in Week 16, which gives Darnold a chance to avenge his stinker of a performance in Week 11.
With oddsmakers doubting Darnold in big games, the Seahawks are priced at +1200 odds to win the Super Bowl.
New England Patriots: Good, But Not That Good?
Record: 9-2
Super Bowl Odds: +1600
The Patriots are tied for the most wins in the NFL, but they’re eleventh overall on the futures board. The Patriots are +1600 odds to win their first Super Bowl in the post-Brady and Belichick era. Oddsmakers are well aware that the Patriots took advantage of the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, which is why their futures price is much lower than their record would indicate. We’ll see how they really stack up when they face the Bills and Ravens in December.
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