The new NFL season is underway. Few predicted the Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl last season. Will another surprise team emerge, or will a favorite prevail in Super Bowl 61?
According to BetMGM, the Los Angeles Rams are the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +500. They’re followed by the Buffalo Bills (+1000), Baltimore Ravens (+1100), and defending champion Seahawks (+1100).
We sorted all 32 teams into competition tiers, including the top four betting favorites, serious contenders, division winners or Wild Card hopefuls, dreamers, long shots, moon shots, and tanking teams with zero chance.
TIER 1: FAB FOUR FAVORITES
Rams +500: The Rams traded for Myles Garrett, and Aaron Donald came out of retirement for one last shot at glory in what could be Matthew Stafford’s final season. The Rams will try to fade history. Since 1996, 20 preseason Super Bowl favorites priced at +500 or shorter did not win the championship.
Bills +1000: Sean McDermott failed to deliver a long-overdue championship. Heck, the Bills never advanced to the Super Bowl during his nine-season tenure. The Bills fired him and promoted Joe Brady from OC to head coach. That change could help Josh Allen and the team finally win their first AFC title in 30 years and return to the Super Bowl. They’re also opening a new stadium, which adds to the excitement. The Bills (+1000) are the second favorite at BetMGM.
Ravens +1100: The Ravens parted ways with longtime head coach John Harbaugh because his teams faltered in the postseason. Fans are fired up about the hiring of Jesse Minter, and the betting market reflects that enthusiasm. The Ravens are tied with the Seahawks as third favorites.
Seahawks +1100: The defending Super Bowl champions face skepticism. Then again, history is against them. The Chiefs in 2023 and 2024 were the only team to win consecutive Super Bowls in the past 20 years. The Seahawks lost running back and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker to free agency. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left the team to fill the head coaching vacancy in Las Vegas. Even hardcore fans are skeptical that Sam Darnold and the offense will match last season’s output without Kubiak’s guidance and Walker’s rushing ability.
TIER 2: SERIOUS CONTENDERS
Chiefs +1500: Travis Kelce postponed retirement for one last chance at winning a fourth Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Mahomes is still recovering from knee surgery, but the addition of Kenneth Walker is arguably their best running back in a very long time.
Chargers +1700: The Chargers went 11-6 in each season since Jim Harbaugh took over as head coach, but they couldn’t get past the Wild Card in either postseason. They hired Mike McDaniel as their new OC. It will be fun to watch Justin Herbert run his innovative playbook. This could finally be the year the Chargers win the AFC Championship and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. They offer tremendous value at +1700.
49ers +1700: Kyle Shanahan is recovering from a gnarly car accident, while jokes and memes about the power substation next to the practice facility persist amid the team’s injury woes. Christian McCaffrey’s health will determine their future. If he remains healthy, then they can go deep. If he misses significant time with injuries, it could be an ugly season.
Broncos +1800: It’s strange to see the Broncos priced so high, considering they should’ve gone to the Super Bowl if Bo Nix hadn’t fractured his ankle. The Broncos boast an elite defense once again. In a surprise move, head coach Sean Payton relinquished play-calling duties… for now.
Lions +1800: Dan Campbell and the Lions are primed for a bounce-back season after missing the playoffs. Even with the best running back in the league in Jahmyr Gibbs, and a Top 5 wide receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, the offense sputtered last season. The Lions fired offensive coordinator John Morton and hired Drew Petzing to replace him. If their offense gets back on track, the Lions could make a run.
Eagles +1800: Never count out the Eagles, who shine when you least expect them. After a disappointing season with Kevin Patullo as the OC, they hired Sean Mannion to revamp the offense. They traded a disgruntled AJ Brown, but still have a treacherous trio in Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and DeVonta Smith.
TIER 3: DIVISION WINNER OR WILD CARD?
Patriots +2000: Drake Maye benefited from the NFL’s easiest schedule last season, and they faced little resistance in the playoffs until they lost to the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. The Pats have a much tougher schedule with everyone gunning for the AFC champions. Adding AJ Brown makes Maye’s downfield attack even more dangerous.
Texans +2000: The Texans have a champion-caliber defense, but their weak offensive line is their largest liability. They need to do a better job protecting CJ Stroud and helping the run game flourish so they can eke out enough offense to win playoff games.
Packers +2000: Defensive star Micah Parsons begins the season on the PUP list while he recovers from ACL surgery. The offensive line is banged up, and they’ll most likely lose RB Josh Jacobs for an extended amount of time after a domestic abuse incident.
Bengals +2200: A healthy Joe Burrow and a soft schedule could give the Bengals a chance to replicate their magnificent run from the 2021 season. Their easy schedule is why they’re favorites to win the AFC North.
Bears +2500: Caleb Williams should excel in his second year running Ben Johnson’s intricate offense. The Bears face a much harder schedule this season. Projected to finish third in the NFC North, they’ll have to win the Super Bowl as a Wild Card squad.
Cowboys +2500: Will the Cowboys end a 30-year Super Bowl drought? They’ve won only five playoff games since 1996, but Brian Schottenheimer’s second season as head coach gives them hope. Dak Prescott has an electric receiving tandem and powerful one-two punch in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
TIER 4: DREAMERS
Jaguars +5000: The Jags surprised everyone last season with 13 wins. Second-year coach Liam Coen will try to lead the Jags to their first back-to-back playoff appearance since the late 1990s. Trevor Lawrence looked great last season, but we’ll see if their rushing attack can produce big plays.
Vikings +5000: Kevin O’Connell helped Sam Darnold revitalize his career in Minnesota before he won a Super Bowl with Seattle. Now, he’ll try to do the same with Kyler Murray. At least Justin Jefferson now has a quarterback who can get him the ball downfield.
Bucs +5000: It’s do or die in Tampa. Head coach Todd Bowles’ job is in jeopardy, and Baker Mayfield is also pissed off that he didn’t get a contract extension. Expect Mayfield to light it up, but they’ll need the defense to step up if they want to make the playoffs.
Colts +6600: The Colts jumped out to an 8-2 record before a horrible collapse, losing seven games in a row to finish 8-9 last season. It’s unknown how effective Daniel Jones will be after recovering from Achilles surgery.
Giants +6600: The market overreacted to John Harbaugh’s arrival. It might take a couple of seasons for a turnaround. The Giants have talented young offensive weapons, but Malik Nabers has been slow to recover from a torn ACL, and Cam Skattebo is returning from a gruesome injury. We’ll see if Jaxson Dart plays smarter to avoid concussion protocol.
Commanders +6600: Dan Quinn is on the hot seat, but his offensive line is decimated with injuries. That’s unfortunate for Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin. Fans are hoping Daniels can reprise his rookie season magic.
TIER 5: LONG SHOTS
Steelers +8000: It’s a Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers reunion, but don’t expect them to compete for a division title since they’re both stuck in the past. Steel Town will miss Mike Tomlin when their beloved squad stays under .500 the entire season.
Saints +9000: The offense showed flashes of promise under Tyler Shough in the second half of last season, but they have too many injury concerns. WR Chris Olave is one concussion away from retirement, and RB Alvin Kamara is banged up to start the season.
Falcons +10000: Kevin Stefanski escaped Cleveland’s QB drama only to have another one unfold in front of him with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix. At least they have Bijan Robinson and Drake London.
Panthers +10000: Carolina got screwed with a tough schedule, so it’s doubtful they’ll even compete for the NFC South title.
TIER 6: MOON SHOTS
Raiders +15000: It’s baffling that Klint Kubiak accepted a job for a troubled franchise in the brutal AFC West. Kirk Cousins is the Week 1 starter at QB, yet everyone wonders when #1 pick Fernando Mendoza gets promoted. Ashton Jeanty’s ankle injury is a huge concern, but when will they trade Maxx Crosby?
Jets +25000: Rumors suggest owner Woody Johnson wants Mike Tomlin and Lamar Jackson at quarterback next season. It’s not even Week 1, and Aaron Glenn is already on the hot seat, and Geno Smith’s days are numbered. Expect another long and torturous season for the LOL Jets.
Browns +25000: New head coach Todd Monken tapped Deshaun Watson as the starting QB despite being booed by fans. How long before the Dawg Pound demands Shedeur Sanders to start? And their defense is cooked without Myles Garrett.
Titans +25000: Robert Saleh inherits a three-win team that could struggle to win five games. He has a promising QB prospect in former #1 pick Cam Ward and rookie WR Carnell Tate, the fourth overall pick this year.
TIER 7: ZERO SHOT, TANK CITY
Cards +50000: Rookie head coach Mike LaFleur joins a dysfunctional organization that will tank for a chance at drafting a franchise quarterback. That strategy failed them with Josh Rosen, before they gave up on former #1 pick Kyler Murray.
Dolphins +50000: The Fins attempt to pick up the pieces after a toxic run under former GM Chris Grier. They’ll also try to tank to secure the #1 pick and a new franchise QB.
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