When oddsmakers release win totals, you can find value fading overrated teams at the top of the board. We’re targeting the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, and the Baltimore Ravens this upcoming season.
It’s not pretty at the bottom of the board. The Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals have the fewest projected wins at 3.5 each, according to BetMGM. The Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns, and New York Jets round out the bottom five with 5.5. Despite low totals, we still like several Unders.
Baltimore Ravens 11.5
Last Season’s Record: 8-9
Super Bowl Odds: +1100
Jesse Minter is a rookie head coach, and Declan Doyle is in his second season as an offensive coordinator. Despite the lack of coaching experience, BetMGM lists the Ravens as the third Super Bowl favorite at +1100. Their futures price and win total of 11.5 feels inflated, considering they were only 8-9 last season and missed the playoffs.
The Ravens battle the Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in Week 3, but they do not have a bye until Week 13. They also host the Jaguars and Chargers in consecutive weeks in early November.
Divisional road games in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are always problematic. Those matchups against the Bengals and Steelers will take place in late December. They also play the Bills and Texans on the road.
Seattle Seahawks 10.5
Last Season’s Record: 14-3
Super Bowl Odds: +1100
The defending champs have a low win total of 10.5 after they lost Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker in free agency, and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to a head coaching gig. The market lacks faith in quarterback Sam Darnold after Kubiak’s departure. Brian Fleury replaces Kubiak, but this marks his rookie season as an OC.
The Seahawks could post a losing record in the NFC West if the 49ers remain healthy, particularly Christian McCaffrey. Meanwhile, the Rams are favorites to win the Super Bowl after securing Myles Garrett in a trade.
The Seahawks kick off the season with a Super Bowl rematch against the Patriots before hosting the Chargers and 49ers in early October. Other difficult non-division home games include the Chiefs, Bears, and Cowboys.
In Week 6, the Seahawks visit the Broncos in Denver for Thursday Night Football. After their Week 11 bye, the Seahawks face a punishing road stretch against the 49ers, Eagles, Panthers, and Rams.
San Francisco 49ers 10.5
Last Season’s Record: 12-5
Super Bowl Odds: +1700
The 49ers are a hot mess. Team owner Jed York was picked up in a prostitution sting, head coach Kyle Shanahan nearly died in a head-on collision, and injuries continue to ravage the starting lineup. Some fans even blame a mysterious electrical substation beside the practice facility as the source of the team’s injury woes.
The 49ers play two international games this season. They kick off the season in Melbourne, Australia against the Rams. They also host the Vikings in Mexico City in Week 10.
Some of their more difficult home games are against the Broncos, Commanders, Seahawks, Rams, and Eagles. The 49ers also have tough road matchups against the Seahawks, Cowboys, Chargers on Thursday Night Football, and the Chiefs. Four of their final six games are on the road.
New York Giants 7.5
Last Season’s Record: 4-13
Super Bowl Odds: +6600
John Harbaugh is a major upgrade at head coach compared to Brian Daboll, but the unrealistic fan base thinks the Giants will instantly compete for a division title and return to the playoffs. Even with Harbaugh at the helm, eight or more victories feels like a stretch.
QB Jaxson Dart and RB Cam Skattebo are exciting players to watch, but their reckless style leaves them vulnerable to serious injuries and concussions. We’ll see if Dart avoids head injuries in his second season. Skattebo looks like he lost a step following his gruesome leg injury, while WR Malik Nabers has been slow to return from an ACL injury.
The Giants host the Cowboys to kick off their season. Other tough home games include the Saints, Commanders, Jaguars, 49ers, and Eagles. Their brutal road schedule features the Rams, Commanders, Texans, Eagles, Colts, Seahawks, Lions, and Cowboys.
The Giants could start 2-5 before a bye in Week 8. With a punishing stretch in November, they could go winless that month and enter December with a 2-9 record. Playing the Browns in late December is their only soft spot in the final six weeks of the season.
Atlanta Falcons 7.5
Last Season’s Record: 8-9
Super Bowl Odds: +10000
The Falcons hope new head coach Kevin Stefanski can lead them back to the playoffs. Tua Tagovailoa is a questionable choice at QB, but Michael Penix struggled behind center with a 4-8 record as a starter.
The NFC South might be one of the weaker divisions, but it won’t be easy for the Falcons to squeeze out eight victories. The Falcons play three road games in the first month against the Steelers, Packers, and Saints. They also play the Bucs, Vikings, and Commanders on the road.
October brings a vicious stretch at home against the Ravens, Bears, and 49ers in consecutive weeks. The Chiefs and Lions visit Atlanta later in the season.
The Falcons also lose a home game in Europe when they host the Bengals at iconic Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid, Spain in Week 9.
Tennessee Titans 6.5
Last Season’s Record: 3-14
Super Bowl Odds: +25000
The Titans took a step in the right direction by hiring Robert Saleh as head coach. Saleh tapped veteran Gus Bradley to handle DC duties, but Brian Daboll as the OC looks like a misfire.
Former #1 overall pick Cam Ward showed flashes of promise as a rookie, but the second-year QB might regress under Daboll. The Titans also have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, so things could get ugly in the trenches for Ward.
The Eagles, Texans, Commanders, Colts, and Steelers visit Nashville this season. The Titans hit the road to play the Ravens, Colts, Bengals, Cowboys, Jaguars, Lions, and Texans.
Cleveland Browns 5.5
Last Season’s Record: 5-12
Super Bowl Odds: +25000
Rookie head coach Todd Monken named Deshaun Watson as the Week 1 starter a couple of days after Cleveland fans bombarded Watson with a cascade of savage boos during a preseason game. Shedeur Sanders will serve as the backup QB.
Without superstar Myles Garret, the defense looks lost. The Browns also have one of the worst offensive lines, so expect many blowouts this season. As the doormat of the AFC North, an 0-6 record against their divisional rivals seems plausible.
The Browns start the season with two road games against the Jaguars and Bucs. Before their bye week, they play three straight away games, including the Steelers and Saints. After Christmas, they’ll play the Ravens and Bengals on their rivals’ home turf. The Panthers, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Bengals, and Colts also visit the Dawg Pound this season.
New York Jets 5.5
Last Season’s Record: 3-14
Super Bowl Odds: +25000
After a disastrous stint with the Raiders last season, quarterback Geno Smith returns to the team that drafted him. It’s year two for head coach Aaron Glenn, but things continue to look bleak for the Jets.
The AFC East features two Super Bowl contenders in the Bills and Patriots. The Dolphins are horrendous, so the Jets have a chance to steal at least one divisional game this season.
The Jets kick off the season in Tennessee against their ex-coach Robert Saleh and the Titans. The rest of the schedule is not kind. Three of their first four games are on the road. Other tough away games include the Lions, Bears, Patriots, Chiefs, Chargers, and Bills. The Jets also host the Packers, Bills, Broncos, Patriots, and Vikings at MetLife Stadium.
Las Vegas Raiders 5.5
Last Season’s Record: 3-14
Super Bowl Odds: +25000
Rookie head coach Klint Kubiak is fresh off a Super Bowl victory with the Seahawks, but he inherits a dysfunctional team in Las Vegas that won three games last season. Several contenders are eyeing star defender Maxx Crosby, so Kubiak will constantly field questions about trade rumors to the Cowboys, 49ers, and Bears.
Running back Ashton Jeanty sustained a badly sprained ankle, and the timetable for his return is vague.
Kirk Cousins opens the season as the starting quarterback, but his primary role is to mentor #1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza and help him learn Kubiak’s playbook. In the meantime, fans wonder when the rookie will finally make his debut.
The Chiefs, Bills, Rams, Seahawks, Chargers, and Broncos visit Las Vegas this season. The Raiders have tough road games against the Chargers, Saints, Patriots, 49ers, Broncos, and Chiefs.
Miami Dolphins 3.5
Last Season’s Record: 7-10
Super Bowl Odds: +50000
The Dolphins ditched Tua Tagovailoa and will gladly incur a massive cap hit this season. QB Malik Willis is an upgrade from Tua, but the Dolphins lack skill players and have a porous offensive line.
The Dolphins opened at 4.5 during the initial release, but the public hammered the Under and the line moved to 3.5. Even at that low baseline, the Under is still one of the most popular prop bets this offseason.
The Dolphins begin the season in Las Vegas against the Raiders. Aside from two divisional games against the Jets, they don’t have any other opportunities for an easy victory. According to the look-ahead lines, the Dolphins are a betting favorite only once this season when they host the Jets in Week 12.
Three of their first four games are on the road. Their punishing road schedule includes the 49ers, Vikings, Colts, Bills, Broncos, Packers, and Patriots. They also don’t catch a break at home with the Chiefs, Bengals, Patriots, Lions, Bears, Chargers, and Bills coming to Miami.
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