There were two earth-shaking events that affected the field in general and the race dynamics in particular for the 150th Preakness Stakes, which sends its nine contenders to post around 4 p.m. PT Saturday from Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.
The first came on May 6, when Bill Mott, the trainer for Kentucky Derby champion Sovereignty, announced his charge wouldn’t charge from the Pimlico gates. Instead, Mott pointed Sovereignty to the June 7 Belmont Stakes.
Aside from removing any hope of a Triple Crown winner, that left a scrappy, wide-open—if somewhat anonymous to most casual bettors (which, to be honest, is the majority of people these days)—Preakness field to pick from.
Until five days later, when the second event rocked the Preakness field. That was the decision of Journalism’s connections, led by trainer Mike McCarthy, to enter the Derby favorite and runner-up in the Preakness. As the 3.4-1 favorite at post time, Journalism seized the lead in the stretch and led the Derby until the final sixteenth, when Sovereignty overtook him to win by three-quarters of a length.
Favorite Son
Now, we find Journalism as the 8-5 morning-line favorite and the consensus best horse in the Preakness field. That Derby defeat, which snapped a four-race winning streak, did nothing to dissuade oddsmakers from making the son of 2007 Preakness champion Curlin the prohibitive favorite.
Again, with good reason. Journalism is the most complete horse in the field. His 108 Beyer Speed Figure from his San Felipe Stakes romp in March is the best in the field by seven points. His stalking style plays very well at Pimlico, where pacesetters, pressers, and stalkers tend to prevail, and he has hit the board in every one of his six races (4-1-1).
Now, however, come the minefields Journalism faces. Favorites haven’t exactly found Pimlico a field of Triple Crown dreams of late. Justify was the last favorite to run to his odds in the Preakness—and that was seven years ago. In the meantime, Pimlico has welcomed filly Swiss Skydiver (2020, 11-1), Rombauer (2021, 11-1), Early Voting (2022, 6-1), National Treasure (2023, 3-1) and Seize the Grey (2024, 9.80-1) to the winner’s circle ahead of their respective favorites.
Journalism is also one of three Derby expats in the field, a recent ill trend for that genus. The last Derby expat to win the Preakness was War of Will in 2019.
Three to Watch
So who else warrants your betting attention? Start with River Thames (9-2), who fits the profile of recent Preakness winners. He’s a “new shooter” to the field who had enough points to qualify for the Derby, courtesy of a runner-up finish to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in March and a solid third to Burnham Square and East Avenue in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in April.
But Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who normally avoids the Preakness, pointed this son of Maclean’s Music to Pimlico, where his versatile running style, he’s stalked and set the pace, has a better chance of thriving in a smaller field. Those two near-misses in Derby preps followed victories in his first two races.
Plus, River Thames will start from Post 6, which has sent the most winners (17) in Preakness history.
Our second must-use is Clever Again (5-1). This lightly raced colt has only three races on his CV—but he’s 2-1-0 in those, including a four-length romp in the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn Park in April, where he wired a field featuring a Grade 1-winning colt trained by Bob Baffert.
The son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah figures to duel rail-sitter Goal Oriented for the early lead with his pacesetting running style. He’s coming in fresh, has improved in every race, and even with the leap in class, should acquaint himself well in this field.
The third horse to watch is Goal Oriented (6-1). You won’t be able to miss him because the NBC cameras will inevitably find his trainer—a.k.a. the Face of Horse Racing. That would be Bob Baffert, who owns a record eight Preakness titles. The white-haired, sunglass-wearing Baffert won his eighth Preakness two years ago with National Treasure, who was a new shooter starting on the rail.
Goal Oriented, meanwhile, fits the same profile as National Treasure did, albeit with a much lighter resume. He’s only run twice. And he’s won twice, including a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming race on the Kentucky Derby undercard, where he prevailed by three-quarters of a length in the Churchill Downs slop. The weather forecast for Baltimore on Saturday predicts a 60 percent chance of rain.
Along with Baffert, you get one of the best jockeys in the world—Flavien Prat—who takes the reins of Goal Oriented. The son of Not This Time has won on- and off-the-pace but promises to be one of the pacesetters when the gates open. Prat won the Preakness aboard Rombauer four years ago.
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