Over-Under totals bets on college football are always fun. It gives you action for the entire season, and if it’s a low total, you may be able to clinch the bet in the first two weeks. Here’s a couple of colleges that are underestimated but could pay off.
New Mexico Over 2.5 Wins (+130, BetMGM)
After winning just nine games over the last three seasons, New Mexico (team name?) brought in new head coach Bronco Mendenhall to take over the program, which is a major positive for them. The former BYU and Virginia head coach built consistent bowl-elgible teams at those schools and brought in former BYU QB Jason Beck to take over as OC after he spent last year as Syracuse’s OC.
The entire o-line transferred in, including Jawaun Singletary from Georgia at center, and Javen Jacobs will likely be the RB1 after coming in from Arizona State. Eli Sanders from Iowa State will also factor in at running back along with returning back Andrew Henry (6.7 YPC last year).
At QB, Devon Dampier threw six touchdowns and no interceptions last year and finished third on the team in rushing with 328 yards and four more touchdowns as a true dual threat. He could surprise some people this year, especially under the guidance of the upgraded coaching staff.
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Defensively, former Vanderbilt DC Nick Howell is in and helped bring in impact transfer De’jon Benton from USC at nose tackle. There are tons of transfers joining this team on both sides of the football and this should look like a completely different squad in 2024.
Mendenhall has coached 16 of his 17 college teams to bowl eligibility and while I’m not arguing that will be the case, I do think they’re going to get over this 2.5-win total pretty easily.
Not only will they avoid Mountain West powers Boise State, UNLV and San Jose State on their schedule, but they’ll start off against Montana State, which should be a 1-0 start in Week 0. Sure, they’ll probably lose their road games against University of Arizona and Auburn right after but a schedule that includes the following isn’t too daunting: vs. Fresno State, at New Mexico State, vs. Air Force, at Utah State, at Colorado State, vs. Wyoming, at San Diego State, vs. Washington State and at Hawai’i. My prediction: 4-8.
Kennesaw State Over 2.5 Wins (-105, FanDuel)
Sporting a zone read RPO offense, Kennesaw State’s rushing attack makes them different than most of their opponents and while the team played just nine games last season and won three games (against non FBS opponents), I’m very high on them this season… to win three or more games in their first year as an FBS school. The program had a lot of players redshirt last year to prep for the move from FCS to FBS status and their style of play could create some hiccups against Conference USA and non-conference opponents alike.
Here’s their full schedule: at UTSA, vs. Louisiana, at San Jose State, vs. UT Martin, vs. Jacksonville State, at Middle Tennessee, vs. Liberty, at Western Kentucky, at UTEP, vs. Sam Houston, vs. Florida International and at Louisiana Tech.
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Outside of Liberty, Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State, I’m not too concerned about that schedule. Sam Houston made their FBS debut last season, going 3-9. FIU went 4-8 last year. Middle Tennessee has a new coach (Derek Mason) and just seven returning starters at most. Louisiana Tech has gone 6-18 over their last three seasons. UTEP is regarded as a bottom-tier C-USA team. In non-conference play, San Jose State will be tough, but UTSA lost school record-holder Frank Harris at QB and are undergoing a transition there, Louisiana also has a 2.5-win total and are expected to struggle mightily and UT Martin is an FCS opponent.
It’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that this team starts off the year at 3-1, which would pay off the bet nice and early. My prediction: 4-8.
