We are right in the middle of the 2022-2023 NHL season, and with the All-Star break coming up before we know it, there will be plenty of people looking to enter the futures market at the halfway point. There is almost always value on the board, it’s just about finding where that value lies and getting the best number possible on a team or player that can improve on that number.
Odds to win Hart Memorial Trophy
| Connor McDavid | Edmonton | -670 | |
| David Pastrnak | Boston | +1500 | |
| Jack Hughes | New Jersey | +1900 | |
| Tage Thompson | Buffalo | +2000 | |
| Jason Robertson | Dallas | +2300 | |
| Mikko Rantanen | Colorado | +2500 | |
| Nikita Kucherov | Tampa Bay | +2700 | |
| Leon Draisaitl | Edmonton | +4000 | |
| Sidney Crosby | Pittsburgh | +4000 |
Odds Courtesy of BetRivers
Today, we have a value play on the Hart Memorial Trophy should Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid get injured, miss time or slow down his production.
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McDavid’s Award to Lose
It is really tough nowadays not to bet on Connor McDavid to win the Hart Trophy, as he is hockey’s best player by a good margin, and he is currently a massive -670 favorite to take home the hardware yet again. He has captured the honor twice, the first time in 2017 and again in 2021.
There’s good reason for that, and if he stays healthy, he is pretty much guaranteed to win it. That’s why this would be a small play, as any play with +1500 odds would be.
When looking for value in the Hart Trophy race, I like to look at someone who is going to be on television a lot and plays on a team that is getting attention. One team that immediately fits that bill is the Boston Bruins, who not only have the NHL’s best record this season by 10 points in the standings but also have one of the best players in the league helping them race toward the President’s Trophy.
Pastrnak Worthy Longshot
David Pastrnak, better known by hockey fans as “Pasta”, is very deserving of the Hart Trophy by the numbers. As of Monday, he had 71 points, which comprise of 38 goals and 34 assists, and leads the team in all three categories.
Pastrnak has a plus/minus of 24, which is a top-10 number in the NHL. In other words, he is the best player on the best team in hockey. If McDavid didn’t exist, Pastrnak would be the favorite to win this award. He has a commanding lead over third-place entrant Jack Hughes of the New Jersey Devils, who is at +1900.
At +1500, I think this is good value for a player that will get national attention a lot of nights and will be on TV screens consistently this season. He checks all the boxes for a guy who can win the award: attention, being on a good team and being a high goal scorer.
If McDavid suffers an unfortunate injury and has to be out for a while, that will immediately put Pastrnak in the driver’s seat. At +1500, it’s worth taking a flier on him and it will be fun to watch his progression this season.
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