The 2024 MLB season is upon us. Now is the time to dive into some of the MLB futures markets to see if we can find some value at the current numbers being offered at the sportsbooks.
Awards, World Series odds, and win totals are all markets that you should be looking into right now to find a good investment for the 2024 season.
Let’s take a look at some odds and best bets for the 2024 Cy Young Awards.
2024 AL Cy Young Odds, Picks & Predictions
Below are odds to win the American League Cy Young award (BetMGM odds as of March 27):
| Corbin Burnes | +750 |
| Kevin Gausman | +800 |
| Framber Valdez | +800 |
| Tarik Skubal | +1000 |
| Luis Castillo | +1300 |
Best 2024 AL Cy Young Bets:
Corbin Burnes, Orioles (+1000, Caesars)
In the first massive trade of the offseason, the Milwaukee Brewers traded ace Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles, a team that desperately needed a front-line starter for a young and emerging roster.
They certainly got that, as Burnes was one of the best pitchers in the NL last season and has been for many years with Milwaukee. He’s a former Cy Young winner and has the chance to become the eighth pitcher to win a Cy Young in both the American League and National League, joining Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, Max Scherzer and Blake Snell.
Burnes owned a very good 3.40 xERA last season, which was right in line with his 3.39 ERA. His 3.80 xFIP was quite high, one of the highest of his career, but it isn’t that worrisome. He’ll have a great, young defense behind him that is uber-athletic, and he will have one of the best catchers in the game in Adley Rutschman.
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Pablo Lopez, Twins (+1800, Caesars)
Anyone who read my articles last season knows how much I liked Pablo Lopez, and how terrible I felt for him with the immense amount of bad luck that he suffered in 2023. It didn’t help that he was on a pretty average Minnesota Twins team that didn’t have a very good offense or defense.
Lopez didn’t garner a lot of talk last season, but he was the best pitcher in the AL, in my opinion. His 3.00 xERA was the best among all qualified pitchers, and his 3.66 ERA showed just how unlucky he really was in 2023 on the mound. He also owned a very impressive 3.28 xFIP, slightly lower than his 3.33 FIP, which is just further proof that he was far better than what his outside numbers showed.
He was a 4.5 WAR player in 2023 and I think that number could reach 5.0 if he fully reaches his potential and the Twins can play some better defense behind him. He also has some room to improve, as his 1.11 HR/9 was a bit high, but I’m not worried enough about it to ignore the value here.
Zach Eflin, Rays (+5000, Caesars)
If you want a deep sleeper pick to win the AL Cy Young in 2024, look no further than Zach Eflin. He was phenomenal last season for the Tampa Bay Rays, especially in the first half of the year. While he had a bit of a dropoff in the second half, he still finished third in MLB among qualified pitchers with a 3.11 xERA. Not all of that second-half skid was entirely his fault, as he also suffered from some bad luck.
Eflin’s 3.12 xFIP was also ranked third among all qualified pitchers, and he also had a fantastic 0.96 HR/9, meaning he allowed less than one home run per nine innings of work. When you do that, you can be extremely effective on the hill. A lot of that number has to do with his huge percentage of ground balls, with a 49.8 GB%.
The biggest drawback for him is that he doesn’t strike enough people out, with a 9.42 K/9. That’s still a great number, but not as high as typical Cy Young winners. That’s why he’s at 50/1, though.
2024 MLB Cy Young Odds, Picks & Predictions
Below are odds to win the National League Cy Young award (BetMGM odds as of March 27):
| Spencer Strider | +375 |
| Zack Wheeler | +700 |
| Logan Webb | +1200 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | +1400 |
| Zac Gallen | +1600 |
Best 2024 NL Cy Young Bets:
Spencer Strider, Braves (+375 across the board)
A lot of people will look at Spencer Strider‘s 3.86 ERA and think that he really wasn’t anything special in 2023, but numbers can be extremely deceiving in the game of baseball. This is a game that is all about luck, and if you don’t get a good bounce of the ball, your numbers are going to reflect that. Unless you look at some of the advanced metrics that take all of that variance out and focus on what the pitcher controls.
Strider posted a 3.09 xERA in 2023, which ranked second in MLB among all qualified pitchers. This is a much stronger indicator of how he actually pitched last year, which was fantastic. His 2.92 xFIP was No. 1 among all qualified pitchers in the league, and his 13.55 K/9 was also the best in baseball. His stuff is just crazy, and having the ability to strike people out like he does really helps his chances of winning the award.
He also was a 5.5 WAR player, second only to the pitcher I’ll talk about below. Strider truly was one of the very best pitchers in baseball in 2023, and his ERA did not reflect how good he actually was.
Zack Wheeler, Phillies (+700, Caesars)
Well, the top two guys I listed here are also the top two on the board to win the NL Cy Young next year, so we are going with chalk early. It’s really not difficult to see why I would have Zach Wheeler as one of my favorite bets to win the award. He was spectacular and had the highest WAR among all qualified pitchers with a massive 5.9 rating. Essentially, he was the most valuable pitcher in MLB in 2023.
Wheeler owned a 3.21 xERA, which was also much lower than his 3.61 ERA. If you couldn’t already tell, I put a lot of weight into the advanced stats of these guys because I believe that positive and negative regression is a real thing, and an indicator of how a guy might perform in the future. Wheeler’s ERA being far higher than his xERA tells me that he was a lot better than what you saw with the naked eye.
His 0.94 HR/9 number was also super-impressive, and being able to limit home runs is a huge part of winning the Cy Young award and keeping your numbers low.
Freddy Peralta, Brewers (+3000, BetMGM)
If you want a deep NL Cy Young sleeper pick, I think you could do a lot worse than Freddy Peralta, who quietly put together a nice 2023 season. In 165.2 innings, he owned a 3.35 xERA with a 3.86 ERA, which fits my criteria of finding guys who are due to have some positive regression. Injuries have been a problem for Peralta, but if he can stay healthy, he has a chance to be very good.
With Corbin Burnes headed to Baltimore, Peralta is going to be the best pitcher in Milwaukee. (Yes, I even like him more than Brandon Woodruff right now.) Peralta also had a very high K/9 rate of 11.41, which is another very important figure toward earning the Cy Young. You need to have that strikeout stuff to pad the stats and show how nasty you are.
He had a 3.85 FIP and 3.42 xFIP, which further proves my point here. His biggest weakness is allowing far too many home runs, with an HR/9 rate of 1.41. If he can work on keeping the ball in the park, I like his odds at 30/1.
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Understanding MLB Cy Young Picks
If you’re new to betting, then you may not understand what the AL & NL Cy Young is. You’ve come to the right place, as we will explain everything you need to know here to bet on the AL & NL Cy Young. The MLB is split up between two leagues, the American League and National League. In each of these leagues, a Cy Young winner will be crowned as the best pitcher in his league that year. This award usually goes to the lowest ERA, but a strikeout pitcher can win it every now and then. Basically, the Cy Young goes to the best pitcher in each league. Keep in mind, this is a season-long bet, so your money will be tied up until a winner is announced.
Example: You log on to Caesars Sportsbook and go to the MLB future tab. You scroll to Cy Young award and see a whole bunch of players listed with their prices. Consulting this page, you find that you really like a best bet on Zac Gallen to win NL Cy Young at +1600. If he wins the award at the end of the season, you win the bet!
You can place these bets at any sportsbook of your choosing, but I recommend using whatever book gives you the best number. If one book is offering +750, while the other is offering +850 and you want to bet it, always take the +850.
