It’s been a while since Leicester City and Chelsea were both relevant in European soccer. But that’s what the FA Cup is for: renewed relevance.
Two of our other teams in this week’s soccer wager offerings would love any kind of relevance. Like coffee is for closers, relevance is for non-relegation-bait teams.
And rounding out this week’s offerings are two teams enjoying their European tournament stints—and hoping this is a trend instead of an outlier.
Reacquainting Ourselves with Leicester City
You remember Leicester City? Authors of one of the greatest upsets in sports history when it somehow won the 2015-16 Premier League title at 5,000-1? And pulling off that improbable feat one season after the Foxes narrowly avoided relegation.
They didn’t avoid it at the end of the 2022-23 season though, with their nine-year Premier League tenure ending. But while you weren’t paying attention after it dropped, Leicester made a concerted push to join the Premier League after one season in the Championship League. The Foxes currently lead England’s second tier by three points over fellow dropped partner Leeds United. Holding one of the top two places guarantees their return to the pinnacle of English soccer.
Which is a roundabout way to say this quarterfinal FA Cup rematch of the 2021 FA Cup Final between Leicester and Chelsea—won by the Foxes, 1-0—is not a gimme for the Premier League side. Right now, there are only 10 spots in the table between the Premier League’s 11th-place Chelsea and Championship leaders Leicester.
Chelsea is 2-1-2 in its last five, coming in off Monday’s 3-2 beating of Newcastle. The Blues do have two ties (vs. Manchester City and Brentford) but haven’t lost a Premier League game since succumbing 4-1 to Liverpool January 31. Leicester comes in off a 2-2 draw with Hull City, snapping a two-game winning streak where the Foxes put away Sunderland (1-0) and Queen’s Park Rangers (2-1).
That form table set, the books expect goals here. The Both Teams To Score (BTTS) price is -135. But there are better prices to be had, starting with Leicester +375 to advance. That juicy price means all Leicester has to do is advance 25% of the time for this bet to be profitable. But we’ll pile on further with Leicester getting a goal at +135. Should you take 1.25 goals, you’re looking at essentially a pick-em (-103).
Best Bet: Leicester City +1 (+135) and/or Leicester City to Advance (+375).
A Darwinian Battle Before Your Eyes
As Leicester makes plans to reacquaint itself with Premier League football, two teams are fighting in the nether regions of the Premier League ladder to stay up. With 10 games or so left for most of the Premier League teams, two of the final relegation spots are all but decided: Burnley and Sheffield United.
Who drops through the trap door with them likely involves 17th-place Nottingham Forest and 18th-place Luton Town, who play each other at Kenilworth Road—Luton Town’s sardine-can of a stadium Saturday. Right now, Forest holds a three-point lead (24-21) over Luton and a two-goal advantage in goal-differential (-16 to -18), which is the first tiebreaker if these two are deadlocked at the end of the season.
Translation? This is a relegation death match, with the loser of this game in dire peril of joining Burnley and Sheffield United in the Championship next year. And the urgency couldn’t be pegging more for Luton, which somehow spit up a three-goal halftime lead to Bournemouth Wednesday, falling 4-3.
Rebounding three days later after allowing four unanswered goals is essential for Luton, who will likely dial back its usual all-gas/little-brakes style somewhat. Instead of a 4-3 free-for-all, expect something like Luton’s previous game: a 1-1 tie with Crystal Palace, where Luton takes away the counterattack that Forest lives on.
Speaking of Forest, it comes into Kenilworth Road on the heels of three consecutive 1-0 losses: to Brighton, Liverpool and Manchester United in the FA Cup. The Foresters haven’t scored a goal since a 4-2 loss to Aston Villa February 24. Think they’re wound a bit tight for this one?
We do, which is why we see both of these teams taking few chances. The books have a 1-1 draw as the lowest-priced correct score at 6-1. This is a likely scenario, one that sets up nicely into our play here.
Best Bet: Luton Town-Nottingham Forest Under 2.5 goals (+118)
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Europe Awaits???
On the other end of the ladder, we find Aston Villa and West Ham—two teams playing European football that want to keep it that way in 2024-25.
This game is Sunday, because both of these teams played Thursday; Aston Villa hosting Ajax in the third-tier Europa Conference League and West Ham hosting SC Freiburg in the second-term Europa League. So fatigue won’t be a factor here.
But Aston Villa’s road record could be. The Villains are the Premier League’s fourth-best road team, netting 24 points away from Villa Park in 14 games. That trails only the league’s top three teams: Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City.
Expect goals in this game; West Ham has conceded in its last eight games and there have been over-2.5 goals scored in 19 of its 28 games this year. Aston Villa, meanwhile, has conceded in its last five games, watched both teams score in 19 of 28 games this year and tallied over-2.5 goals in 21 of 28.
That’s why we aren’t playing totals. And why we are playing Aston Villa
Best Bet: Aston Villa to win (+140)
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