One of the things bettors remember—besides the bad beats, of course—are scenarios that seem to stick over time, often for good reason.
You remember teams that always seem to be favorites. Or always seem to be home favorites, no matter the opponent. And recency bias creeps in along for the ride, especially when some of those memories involve teams that cashed due to coaching, quarterback play, a great defense or what have you.
Sometimes, those memories lead us in the right direction. And sometimes, they don’t.
Last week: 1-2. Season: 5-10.
These Ducks Turn Into Dogs
Remember the last time Oregon closed as a home underdog to a team based outside the Mountain or Pacific time zones? Major points to you if you remembered it was Michigan—back in 2003.
Remember the last time Oregon closed as a home dog to any team? More major points if you remember it was Washington—in 2018. And remember the last time these two teams played? Since it happened only three years ago—when Oregon went into the Horseshoe and knocked off Ohio State—you get only minor points for remembering.
Regardless, this is the marquee game of the week, featuring the second-ranked Buckeyes traveling to No. 3 Oregon. And that we find the Ducks a home dog should be unsettling to Oregon fans, considering the Ducks are 2-3 straight up against top 10 teams under Dan Lanning.
What else is unsettling to Oregon fans is the inconsistent play of QB Dillion Gabriel. Remember when Gabriel was the Heisman Trophy favorite? Yeah, that’s probably out of sight and mind, because Gabriel hasn’t been out of sight as a passer. Gabriel’s numbers jump out: 77.8 percent completion rate for 1,449 yards and 11 TDs. But he has shown vulnerability of late, throwing two red-zone picks against Michigan State last week.
Waiting for Gabriel to blink is a Buckeyes’ defense ranked No. 1 in the country in yards allowed (202.4), points allowed (6.8) and sack percentage, which figures to tax an already iffy Oregon offensive line.. Ohio State is fourth in passing yards allowed (a meager 129.8) and has no discernable holes on either side of the ball.
Like Penn State (see below), the Buckeyes have to venture three time zones west. And they’ve lost three consecutive top-five matchups SU. But we’re preferring to forget that with the value we’re getting here.
Best Bet: Ohio State -3.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
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USC Fears Rush Week at Home
Remember when USC was one of the most prohibitive betting favorites in the country? When the Trojans were routinely 15, 16, 18, 20, 24-point favorites who would routinely cover those numbers with offensive abandon?
Their cranky fanbase remembers. The same cranky fanbase that would prefer to forget that over the last decade, USC is 5-25 SU and 10-20 ATS as an underdog. According to the Action Network, that’s the worst ATS win percentage among any school with 30-plus games as an underdog. This is the same cranky fanbase that hasn’t gotten over the Trojans’ loss to Minnesota last week as 9.5-point favorites. Nor the fact USC is 0-2 in its Big Ten maiden voyage.
That voyage is about to hit choppier water. Penn State is the best team USC has seen to date. The Nittany Lions average 217 yards a game on the ground, just the kind of team that brutalizes a USC rush defense that is 17th (out of 18 teams) in the Big Ten, allows 5.3 yards a carry and 158.6 yards per game.
Defensively, Penn State is fourth in the nation in rush defense, surrendering 2.5 yards per carry and 76.2 yards per game. It’s fourth in total defense (233.2 YPG) and allows only 11.4 points per game.
This puts the onus on USC QB Miller Moss to have a near-perfect game at home—in front of those cranky fans. Yes, Penn State is traveling cross country. But yes, since 2000, the Nittany Lions are 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 roads games.
They’ll keep it close, but not close enough, Trojans’ fans. Crank up the cranky.
Best Bet: Penn State -5.5 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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Static Clings to Arizona’s Offense
Remember that incendiary Arizona offense? The one where QB Noah Fifita would throw the ball with reckless abandon and Wildcats’ receivers would always be there to catch whatever Fifita threw up? Often times, in the end zone?
These days, that’s a fuzzy memory that cuts in and out. And it’s been cutting out lately, since Arizona’s offense is as predictable as the second ring on a phone. Fifita threw four TD passes in his first game. He’s thrown three in the Wildcats’ last four games combined. In Arizona’s two losses: 31-7 vs. Kansas State and 28-22 to Texas Tech last week, Fifita threw for zero TDs—and three INTs.
The moral of this story: cut off the Wildcats’ offensive head and the rest of the offense dies. And BYU holds a rather sharp machete in that department. The Cougars have allowed only three passing TDs all season (T10 nationally), limiting opposing aerial offenses to 171 yards a game on 51.2 percent passing, which is fifth in the nation. The five yards a play is sixth. The seven interceptions are tied for 13th.
Offensively, BYU is as versatile as Arizona is static. The Cougars are 23rd in the nation (0.145) in Expected Points Added (EPA), which signifies how well a team does in relation to its offensive expectation. They run and pass with equal efficiency.
Throw on that the brutal atmosphere for visiting teams in Provo, the fact BYU is 5-0 both straight-up and ATS and Arizona’s 1-4 ATS mark and this one will be forgettable for Fifita and the Wildcats.
Best Bet: BYU -5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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