This is not the stop on the Kentucky Derby trail you’re used to seeing. This isn’t Santa Anita Park, Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn, Fair Grounds or any of the usual winter/early spring stops on the road to Churchill Downs. Colonial Downs? What’s Colonial Downs, what’s a Virginia Derby and what’s it doing as a stop on the Derby trail?
Let’s get those logistics out of the way first. This week’s lone stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is Colonial Downs in Virginia, which welcomes 10 sophomores to the featured race on its three-day spring meeting: the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby. It headlines a 10-race day on the Colonial Downs card that includes three other ungraded stakes races.
Derby Designation
The Virginia Derby is a Listed Stakes race, one notch below Grade 3 on the thoroughbred class pyramid. But it offers 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points to its top five finishers. That’s the same point allocation as Grade 2 races such as the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita (won by Potente), the Risen Star at Fair Grounds (Paladin), and the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream (Commandment)—Derby preps at this time on the calendar you’re undoubtedly more familiar with. So, like those races two notches north on the food chain, the Virginia Derby’s winner is all but assured a spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Unique as a one-turn, nine-furlong race, the Virginia Derby debuted as a Derby prep last year, when American Promise upset 4-5 favorite Getaway Car, earning his way into the Derby and the Preakness. Getaway Car was trained by Bob Baffert, who also conditions this year’s morning-line favorite—Buetane (5-2). The son of 2020 Belmont Stakes champion Tiz the Law, Buetane seeks his first graded stakes victory after runner-up finishes in the Grade 1 Hopeful and Grade 2 San Vicente and a third in the Grade 3 Southwest last month. In that last race, Buetane battled for the lead throughout, but faded in the deep stretch, finishing third by 3 ¼ lengths to winner Silent Tactic and runner-up Soldier N Diplomat.
Before that stretch, the $1.15 million purchase broke his maiden at first ask, winning a maiden special weight race at Del Mar last August. The Virginia Derby is his fifth race on his fifth different track. This spreading of Derby prospect wealth is common for Baffert charges. Buetane is one of seven the Hall of Fame trainer has on this year’s Derby trail.
Heavyweight Trainers
Baffert isn’t the only A-list trainer represented in this race. Brad Cox sends out Confessional (4-1) and puts ace rider Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons. The progeny of Cox’s 2021 Belmont winner Essential Quality gets his blinkers back on after a disappointing, blinkers-free seventh in his Derby trail debut at the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Coming on the heels of a maiden-breaking win at Keeneland over seven furlongs last year and a second in a Gulfstream allowance in his 3-year-old debut, this is a make-or-break race.
The same could be said for Incredibolt (10-1), the only stakes winner in the field. That came courtesy of his nearly two-length score in last October’s Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs. That would normally make this son of Bolt d’Oro a heavy favorite in a field like this. Or it would have, if Incredibolt didn’t lay a pterodactyl-sized egg in his next outing: the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. As the 7-2 third choice, he finished a miserable sixth, 25 ¼ lengths behind the winner Nearly and 12 lengths behind fifth-place Global Aviator.
“We’re going to try to redeem ourselves on Saturday,” trainer Riley Mott said in a release. “We’ll sure need to after that race at Gulfstream. I think it was mostly just a matter of his dislike of the track surface. Whether that had to do with it being deeper on the inside, I’m not sure, but he certainly didn’t get a hold of it at any point.”
Incredibolt has put in four solid workouts since then, but this race will be his Derby litmus test.
Outside Chance
That brings us to our usual two intriguing, somewhat off-the-radar candidates: High Camp (9-2) and Lockstocknpharoah (5-1). High Camp’s Derby trail debut comes after the Instagrand progeny broke his maiden with a length victory in a seven-furlong race at Gulfstream last month. The Virginia Derby will be his only third career race. It comes minus Lasix, the anti-bleeding medication that is banned from all Derby preps. High Camp was on the medication for his victory, which followed a runner-up debut in a December maiden special weight at Gulfstream. Trained by the underrated Will Walden, High Camp will run two furlongs further than he ever has, but is expected to be in the hunt.
Lockstocknpharoah is the second of two American Pharoah offspring in the field and at 5-1, is clearly viewed better than 20-1 Work. With good reason, considering he’s undefeated in two starts at Turfway Park. Yes, it’s not exactly the big time, and yes, it’s on synthetic, but winning two races by a combined 10 ¼ lengths—including an eight-length romp in a two-turn mile allowance—counts for something here.
This is the first stakes race for the $50,000 purchase, who has already earned nearly $90,000 in his two races to date, and like many of his counterparts, Lockstocknpharoah has plenty to prove in a race still proving itself on the Derby trail.
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