There are several eternal truths that are inescapable when you’re faced with handicapping a 20-horse Kentucky Derby: that it isn’t easy to win one of these, that luck plays as big a part in skill and that anything can—and often does—happen to torpedo even the best-laid handicapping plans.
The biggest eternal truth? Because of all of the above, often the best horse doesn’t always win.
We’ve seen this for the last six years. We may see it this year, after the gates open around 6:57 p.m. ET from Churchill Downs in Louisville for the 151st Kentucky Derby, because right now, Derby favorites aren’t exactly running to their hype. Here are the odds of the last six Derby winners, which include 2019’s Country House, who was bumped up to first when Maximum Security—that year’s favorite—was disqualified for interference.
- 2024—Mystik Dan, 18-1
- 2023—Mage, 15-1
- 2022—Rich Strike, 80-1
- 2021—Medina Spirit, 12-1
- 2020—Authentic, 9-1
- 2019—Country House, 65-1
Medina Spirit was included because, despite his eventual disqualification, he was the winner for cashable purposes.
You get the picture. This is why we always like to find those longshots and down-ticket sleepers who can wake up your betting tickets.
And we’ll get to those in a moment.
The Favorite
We do need to focus on who the best horse in the Derby 151 field is, and it’s not exactly a hard puzzle to solve.
That would be Journalism, the 3-1 morning line favorite. Unlike recent history, especially the last two years when Fierceness (2024) and Forte (2023) were good, but beatable favorites, Journalism comes in with few nits to pick in his resume.
Journalism at His Best
First, he brings in a four-race winning streak built not just on perfect trips, but through grit, speed, and sheer talent. He had to overcome adversity to capture the Santa Anita Derby against a good, but small field, and his gallop-out in that race showed he had plenty left after going 1 1/8 miles.
Second, he is literally the fastest horse in the field. There are only three triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in the field—and Journalism owns two of them: a 108 for his San Felipe Stakes win in March and a 102 for his Santa Anita Derby triumph. His final furlong time in that Santa Anita Derby, 12.3 seconds, is the fastest on dirt of any Derby runner in their final prep, and his final three-furlongs (37.4) better the 38-second standard set by turf publicist Jennie Rees in her respected Final Fractions Theory. That theory maintains that horses who run their final furlong in 13 seconds or better and/or their final three furlongs in 38 seconds or better have the tactical speed and ability to win a modern Derby.
Third, Journalism is a stalker, meaning he will be running off what is expected to be a fast pace. This will put him in an ideal position to stay close to the speed horses, but ahead of the numerous closers and deep closers, allowing jockey Umberto Rispoli to turn him loose at the right time: probably at the half-mile or three-eighths post. Stalkers tend to do very well in Derbies.
Also Rans
This year, we like the best horse in the field. But who else do we like to join him on our tickets?
Start with Sovereignty (5-1). He is the best of the closers, a genus that should factor strongly into this race, due to the expected fast pace produced by seven seemingly need-the-lead horses in the field. The son of standout sire Into Mischief turned on the late jets nicely in capturing the Street Sense Stakes and the Fountain of Youth. Along with the underrated Bill Mott handling him, his runner-up finish in the Florida Derby shouldn’t dissuade you from including him.
Let’s climb deeper down the toteboard, where we find Japanese invader Luxor Café (15-1). The best of the two Japanese horses in the field, Luxor Café, brings in a four-race unbeaten streak, one where he displayed the speed and running style (stalker) necessary to contend here. He’s the son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Luxor Café ran a blistering 36.5-second final three furlongs to capture the Fukuryu Stakes. The usual question surrounding Japanese horses remains: will that speed travel? Luxor Café has never raced outside of Japan.
Sleepers
One of our favorite sleepers is Grande (20-1). The record 66th Derby starter for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, Grande brings in the required speed (a 97 Beyer, 12.4-second final furlong and 37.3-second final three furlongs) and preferred running style (stalker) to hit the board here. He finished second in the Wood Memorial despite running wide the entire race. A better trip should put him firmly in the mix here. This is just Grande’s fourth race (2-1-0), so he has plenty of room to take another step forward.
You’ll notice we’ve not mentioned one of the speed horses. If you’re inclined to bet one, hoping he duplicates what Medina Spirit did four years ago in wiring the field, your best bet is Rodriguez (12-1). The owner of the other triple-digit Beyer, a 101 clocked when he won the Wood Memorial, Rodriguez is the best of Bob Baffert’s two entries in his first Derby in four years. The Hall of Fame trainer and six-time Derby winner was suspended for three years after Medina Spirit was taken down for having betamethasone in his system, which is banned on race days.
Rodriguez’s test is not speed; he has that. His test is proving he doesn’t have to have the lead to win. He front-ran his way to victory in his two wins. When he didn’t have the lead, he was vaporized by Citizen Bull (in the Robert B. Lewis) and Journalism (by 11 ¼ lengths) in the San Felipe. Other speed horses in the field, such as Citizen Bull, American Promise, East Evenue, Neoequos, Admire Daytona, and Owen Almighty could make this difficult.
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