Let it never be said that the Gridiron Guru doesn’t own his bad weeks. And this was a bad week.
OK, so we didn’t account for how cranky and feral Clemson would be after getting curb-stomped by Georgia, nor how over-its-skis Appalachian State was going into Death Valley. We didn’t take into account that Illinois coach Bret Bielema learned a thing or three about stopping multi-threat quarterbacks along the way. And who saw Iowa State doing what Iowa State had never done—go into Iowa’s Kinnick Stadium and beat their ranked rivals with a late field goal—that blew apart our Under?
The beauty here is there’s always Next Week, which arrives with a trend-bending Wildcat clash, another tasty underdog getting double-digit points, and a less-than-Prime Rocky Mountain rivalry.
Last week: 0-3. Season: 0-3.
You Can’t Go Wrong With These Wildcats
Last year, Arizona was 6-0 ATS, becoming one of the sneakiest trends in college football wagering. Heck, the Gridiron Guru jumped on the Wildcats’ bandwagon and rode it to three consecutive wins down the stretch, including the bowl game beating of Oklahoma.
Arizona comes into Manhattan, Kansas—a.k.a. the “Little Apple”—riding the nation’s longest winning streak: nine games. But apparently, the ATS mojo followed former head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, because these Wildcats—not to be confused with the Kansas State Wildcats we’ll discuss in a moment—are 0-2 ATS in the early going. That includes a 61-39 opening-week offensive orgy against New Mexico where Arizona didn’t cover as 28.5-point favorites, and last week’s sloppy, 22-10 subduing of Northern Arizona as 37-point favorites.
The secret to keeping Arizona’s Wildcats on the short leash is putting standout WR Tetiaroa McMillan on the short leash. It’s easier said than done, but it can be done. McMillan, who hauled in a school-record 304 yards receiving in that New Mexico game, managed but two catches for 11 yards against Northern Arizona.
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Kansas State, meanwhile, gets Arizona for the first time since 1978 as the nation’s No 14 team. Kansas State was 6-2 ATS at home last season, but despite RB DJ Giddens (32-238) and eight returning defensive starters, is also 0-2 ATS. And yet, we think this trend—unlike their fellow Wildcats’ ATS woes—ends here. But shop around as this line is anywhere from Kansas State -7 at -115 to -7.5 and +100. We like the latter.
Best Bet: Kansas State -7.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
Are These Paper Tigers?
Through two games, Missouri hasn’t allowed a point, outscoring its opponents, 89-0, while rolling up 1,007 yards in the two games. The Tigers come into this home game ranked sixth in the nation, its loftiest perch in the Associated Press poll since 2013. But here’s the part where we are contractually obligated to point out those two victories came against Buffalo (38-0) and Murray State (51-0).
Here’s also the part where we mention the Tigers climbed their way to that No. 6 spot largely without the A-material services of All-American WR Luther Burden, who has only caught seven passes for 64 yards in those two games. Theo Weese has picked up much of that slack from QB Brady Cook, catching 13 passes for 149 yards against Buffalo alone. The two-headed RB combo of Nate Noel (23-121-2) and Marcus Carroll (18-97-1) are clicking.
But this is the part where we mention that Boston College is, well, not Murray State and Buffalo. The Eagles opened the season shocking preseason No. 10 Florida State, 28-13, in Tallahassee, then destroyed Duquesne, 56-0, last week. Boston College’s four-headed rushing monster of QB Thomas Castellanos (81 yards, one TD), Treshawn Ward (132 and two TDs), Kyle Robichaux (112 yards) and Turbo Richard (102 yards) has been one of the season’s revelations.
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And this is where we mention that Castellanos has been the brightest revelation of the bunch. He’s 19 of 26 for 340 yards and six TDs, while leading new coach Bill O’Brien’s offense with near flawless efficiency.
All of which leads us to point out Missouri has covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games, but the Tigers are 5-4 ATS at home dating to last season. And this is the part where we reiterate that Boston College is not Buffalo or Murray State.
Best Bet: Boston College +17 (-110 at BetMGM)
More Prime Pain
Remember last year at this time, when buying Colorado was the biggest investment rush since crypto? Remember last year, when Colorado State choked away a big lead, falling 43-35, boosting Coach Deion Sanders’ stock further into the ionosphere?
We do.
We also remember what happened to the Buffaloes last year, when they went 1-8 after that 3-0 start.
As we go into the 93rd edition of the “Rocky Mountain Showdown” between Colorado and Colorado State, held at Colorado State’s Fort Collins home for the first time since 1996, Colorado’s stock has plummeted like Bitcoin. The Buffs were embarrassed last week by Nebraska, 28-10, in a game that was decided by halftime.
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Simply put, Colorado is a mess that a 31-26 opening victory over FCS power North Dakota State doesn’t come close to cleaning up. The Buffs have a solid QB in Shedeur Sanders, but keeping him upright is not something they do well—as illustrated by the 63 sacks allowed the last two seasons. Sanders might go high in the 2025 draft, but not when running for his life.
Colorado State, meanwhile, got blown out Week 1 against Texas, but looked well last week—albeit against a non-FBS team.
We haven’t seen Colorado play defense yet. Until we do, the Buffs aren’t a Prime choice—especially against a very live dog who will have the home crowd jacked up. You could take Colorado State at +225 on the ML, but we like loading up on the stock of a live dog getting points at home.
Best Bet: Colorado State +7 (-110 at Caesars)
