The first week of March Madness is in the books, and only three #1 seeds remain after defending champion Florida lost to Iowa in the Round of 32.
Arizona, the #1 seed in the West, emerged as the betting favorite to win the men’s basketball championship at +330 odds, according to BetMGM. Other #1 seeds, Michigan (+340) and Duke (+370), are not far behind Arizona.
Here’s a quick rundown of every Sweet 16 team…
#1 Arizona +330
Championship Odds: +330
Final Four Odds: -160
KenPom Rating: #2
After a 23-0 start, Arizona lost back-to-back games in February, before finishing the season with a nine-game winning streak and capturing the Big 12 tournament. They cruised to a 34-point win against #16 LIU and knocked out a pesky #9 Utah State in a 12-point victory.
Tommy Lloyd guided Arizona to the Sweet 16 for the fourth time since he took over five seasons ago, but he’s still seeking his first trip to the Elite 8. Expectations are sky high for the Wildcats, who are +330 odds to win the championship and -160 odds to reach the Final Four. The immense pressure has not fazed their freshman duo of Brayden Burries (16.0 ppg) and Koa Peat (13.7 ppg).
Arizona is now 21-14-1 against the point spread, covering seven out of their last 10 games, including both tournament games. They opened as an -8.5 favorite against #4 Arkansas.
#1 Michigan
Championship Odds: +340
Final Four Odds: -145
KenPom Rating: #1
Michigan defeated #16 Howard by 21 points but failed to cover the largest spread of the opening round at -30.5. They beat #9 St. Louis by 23 points and advanced to the Sweet 16 for the second time since Dusty May took over in 2024.
Morez Johnson leads Michigan with 18.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, while shooting an impressive 76.5 percent from the floor. Yaxel Lendeborg is close behind with 17.0 ppg, and he’s knocking down 50 percent of his 3-point attempts.
Michigan is the top-rated team according to KenPom, but it’s a close second on the BetMGM futures board to win the national championship at +340 odds. You can back them to reach the Final Four at -145 odds.
Michigan opened as a -10.5 favorite over #4 Alabama. The Wolverines are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and slipped to 16-20 ATS.
#1 Duke
Championship Odds: +370
Final Four Odds: -125
KenPom Rating: #3
Duke is the consensus favorite to win the East Regional and is priced at -125 odds to reach the Final Four in consecutive seasons. Duke survived a scare against #16 Siena, winning by six points. They bounced back with a 23-point victory against #9 TCU.
Cameron Boozer, a projected Top 3 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, leads Duke across the board with 22.4 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Although he shot a smidge under 40 percent from downtown for the season, he went only 1-for-6 from 3-point range in the tournament.
Duke is 20-16 ATS this season, but only 2-4 ATS in their last six games. They opened as a -6.5 favorite against St. John’s, one of the toughest defensive matchups they’ll face all season.
#2 Houston
Championship Odds: +700
Final Four Odds: +130
KenPom Rating: #4
Houston, last year’s runner-up, crushed #15 Idaho and #10 Texas A&M by 31 points in each game.
Kelvin Sampson’s triple-guard offense is anchored by seniors Emmanuel Sharp (15.4 ppg) and Milos Uzan (11.3 ppg), who have been together since 2022. Meanwhile, Kingston Fleming has been turning heads ever since the freshman erupted for 42 points against Texas Tech earlier this season.
Houston meets #3 Illinois in a juicy Sweet 16 matchup that features one of the nation’s highest scoring offenses pitted against a stifling defense. Houston, ranked #4 in adjusted defense and #2 in scoring defense (62.2 ppg), allowed only 52 ppg so far in the tournament.
The Cougars opened as a -3.5 favorite. Houston is only 18-18 ATS this season, but 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. Now that Florida is out, Houston saw their Final Four odds jump to +130, and its title odds improve to +700.
#2 Iowa State
Championship Odds: +1200
Final Four Odds: +250
KenPom Rating: #7
Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State’s second-best scorer, sprained his ankle in a 34-point rout against #15 Tennessee State. Jefferson did not play in a 19-point win against #7 Kentucky but hopes he can suit up against #6 Tennessee. Head coach T.J. Otzelberger knew his team would step up after Jefferson went down. Killyan Toure, a freshman from France, led Iowa State with a career-best 25 points in the first round. Tamin Lipsey dropped a season-high 26 points against Kentucky.
Iowa State has a margin of victory of 26.5 in the tournament. They opened as a -4.5 favorite against #6 Tennessee. They covered their last six games in a row and improved to 22-13-1 ATS.
Iowa State, ranked #7 at KenPom, is now +1200 odds to win March Madness and +250 odds to reach the Final Four. Of course, #1 Michigan most likely awaits in the Midwest Regional Final.
#2 Purdue
Championship Odds: +1300
Final Four Odds: +215
KenPom Rating: #8
Now that Braden Smith broke Bobby Hurley’s NCAA assists record, Purdue can focus solely on a championship run. They’ve been on a tear since they won four games in four days to clinch the Big Ten tournament.
Purdue obliterated #15 Queens in a 33-point blowout and advanced to the Sweet 16 after beating #7 Miami by 10 points.
Purdue opened as a –6.5 favorite against a surging #11 Texas squad. They went 17-20 ATS this season but covered both tournament games and four out of their last five.
#3 Illinois
Championship Odds: +1400
Final Four Odds: +230
KenPom Rating: #6
Illinois averaged 90.5 ppg with a 28-point margin of victory after they shellacked #14 Penn by 35 points, then beat #11 VCU by 21 points.
Super frosh Keaton Wagler averaged 16 ppg in his first two March Madness games, shooting 50 percent from beyond the arc. David Mirkovic exploded for 29 points with 17 rebounds against Penn. The freshman from Montenegro is also shooting 50 percent from downtown. Sixth man Andrej Stojakovic averages 15.0 ppg off the bench.
Illinois opened as a +3.5 underdog against #2 Houston and posted a 3-3 ATS record as a dog this season. Illinois covered both tournament games and improved to 20-14 ATS.
#2 UCONN
Championship Odds: +2500
Final Four Odds: +500
KenPom Rating: #10
The East is the most difficult corner of the bracket this year. If UCONN can survive #3 Michigan State, then the winner of Duke/St. John’s awaits Danny Hurley and the Huskies. And, if UCONN punches its ticket to the Final Four, you can argue that it can win a third championship in four years.
If you believe in Hurley in March, UCONN offers great value at +500 odds to reach the Final Four, along with +2500 odds to win the national title.
Senior Alex Karaban, a starter on both national championship teams, averages 24.5 ppg while shooting 47.1 percent from 3-point land. Taris Reed emerged as a force, averaging 20.5 points and 20.0 rebounds per game while shooting 65.2 percent from the floor.
UCONN opened -2.5 over Michigan State. Although the Huskies won 31 games this season, they posted a 14-22 ATS record, covering only five out of the last 13 games.
#3 Michigan State
Championship Odds: +3000
Final Four Odds: +475
KenPom Rating: #9
Michigan State defeated #14 NDSU by 25 points, then held off #6 Louisville by eight points. Jeremy Fears struggled to find his shot in the tournament, but he dished 16 assists against Louisville and 11 more against NDSU. Frears averages only 9.5 ppg, almost six points fewer than his season average. Luckily, Coen Carr (19.0 ppg) and Carson Cooper (14.5 ppg) picked up the scoring load.
Michigan State opened as a +2.5 underdog against #3 UCONN. Although the Spartans are 17-15-2 ATS this season, they went 5-2 ATS in their last seven and covered both tournament games.
The winner will face either Duke or St. John’s for a Final Four berth. Michigan State is priced at +475 to reach the Final Four for a ninth time under Tom Izzo. He’s making a 17th appearance in the Sweet 16 with Michigan State. He has a career record of 11-5 in this exact spot.
#5 St. John’s
Championship Odds: +3500
Final Four Odds: +475
KenPom Rating: #16
St. John’s advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999 with a dominating 26-point win versus #12 Northern Iowa before squeaking by #4 Kansas.
Leading scorer Zuby Ejiofor averages 16 points and 10 rebounds per game. Bryce Hopkins (15.5 ppg) shoots a blistering 66.7 percent from 3-point land, and he knocked down six treys against Kansas. Rick Pitino will need big games from Ejiofor and Hopkins if he expects to pick off top-seeded Duke.
St. John’s opened as a +6.5 dog. They’re 21-13-1 ATS, but 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games. St. John’s is known for their swarming defense and a grinding pace. The under is 23-12 this season, including 11-1 in their last 12 games.
#4 Arkansas
Championship Odds: +4000
Final Four Odds: +1000
KenPom Rating: #17
In his second season with Arkansas, John Calipari led the Razorbacks to consecutive Sweet 16 appearances after they defeated #13 Hawaii by 21 points and snuffed out #12 High Point’s Cinderella run.
Arkansas now faces a tough test against a stacked Arizona squad featuring four potential NBA players. They opened as a +8.5 dog against Arizona. Arkansas is 23-13 ATS, covering 10 out of their last 15 games.
Arkansas has its own future lottery pick in Darius Acuff. The freshman led the Razorbacks this season with 23.3 points and 6.5 assists per game, while shooting 44.6 percent from 3-point range. Acuff’s draft stock is rising after he exploded for 36 points against High Point and added 24 against Hawaii.
#4 Nebraska
Championship Odds: +4500
Final Four Odds: +370
KenPom Rating: #13
Nebraska reached the Sweet 16 for the first time in program history in thrilling fashion with a two-point victory over #5 Vanderbilt.
Nebraska and Iowa met twice this season in Big Ten conference action. They lost their first meeting in Iowa but got revenge with an overtime victory on their home court a few weeks ago.
Nebraska opened as a slight favorite against Iowa at -1.5. They covered both games in the tournament, improving to 19-14-1 ATS this season.
Pryce Sandfort, a transfer from Iowa, thrived under head coach Fred Hoiberg. Sandfort leads Nebraska in scoring with 17.9 ppg while shooting 41 percent from 3-point range.
#6 Tennessee
Championship Odds: +6000
Final Four Odds: +700
KenPom Rating: #14
Tennessee beat #11 Miami (OH) by 22 points, then outplayed #2 Virginia to reach the Sweet 16. Rick Barnes now seeks a third consecutive trip to the Elite 8, but Iowa State stands in his way.
If Ja’Kobi Gillespie stays hot, Tennessee has a puncher’s chance against Iowa State. Gillespie averages 25 points and 7.5 assists per game while shooting a deadly 56.3 percent from 3-point range.
Tennessee is just 16-18-1 ATS this season, but went 2-0 ATS in the tournament. They opened as a +4.5 dog against Iowa State.
#9 Iowa
Championship Odds: +12000
Final Four Odds: +750
KenPom Rating: #22
Iowa finished ninth place in a super-competitive Big Ten, yet they found enough mojo to ambush the defending champion and deny Florida back-to-back national titles.
Iowa defeated #8 Clemson by six points in the opening round before stunning #1 Florida, 73-72, when Alvaro Folgueiras knocked down a clutch 3-pointer. It’s been a long journey for Spain’s Folgueiras, who spent two seasons with Robert Morris before transferring to Iowa. Folgueiras averaged 8.5 ppg in the regular season but scored 14 points in both of his March Madness appearances.
Iowa opened as a slight dog against #4 Nebraska on a neutral court at +1.5. They’re now 20-15 ATS after covering both games in the tournament.
#4 Alabama
Championship Odds: +13000
Final Four Odds: +1500
KenPom Rating: #12
Alabama rolled #13 Hofstra by 20 and pulled away from #5 Texas Tech in a 15-point win. Despite a losing ATS record, Alabama is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games and covered both tournament games. Oddsmakers don’t have much faith in Bama, which opened as a +10.5 dog.
Labaron Philon dropped 29 points against Hofstra, and senior guard Latrell Wrightsell stepped up with 24 points against Tech. After Aden Holloway stepped away from the team following his marijuana bust, Nate Oats must lean heavily on Philon and Wrightsell to pick up the scoring slack if they expect to compete with Michigan.
#11 Texas
Championship Odds: +30000
Final Four Odds: +2500
KenPom Rating: #31
Texas is the only double-digit seed in the Sweet 16. They won three games in five days in the opening week of March Madness as a First Four team. They picked off #3 Gonzaga to advance to the Sweet 16.
Texas stumbled into the tournament, losing five out of their last six games, but they’re hot at the right time. They’re 19-15 ATS, but 3-0 ATS since the tournament began. They opened as a +7.5 dog against #2 Purdue.
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