In one Saturday Kentucky Derby prep, you have Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, a six-time winning jockey in John Velazquez, one of the deepest fields in a Derby prep to date, and a positive Derby foreshadowing wagering trend worth heeding.
That is the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.
In the other, you have Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert in his (sort of) native habitat, Pletcher saddling the morning-line favorite—one of three serious contenders—and betting trends worth heeding for this particular race.
That is the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, coming to you from Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas.
Both are 1 1/8-mile tests with the deepest fields of serious Derby contenders to date. Both offer 100-50-25-15-10 Derby qualifying points to their top five finishers. And as we enter the run-in of high-stakes, meaningful Derby preps, both offer litmus tests that will help you handicap the true Derby threats from the actual Derby wanna-bes going forward.
Hot Springs Hotties
And speaking of litmus tests, meet Litmus Test, the 5-1 third choice in the Arkansas Derby. We’re starting with this Baffert charge because he checks many of the boxes of an Arkansas Derby winner. He’s trained by Baffert, who is 5-for-16 (31%) in the last 20 editions of this race. He’s a product of Nyquist, the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner, who won four Grade 1 races of 1 1/16 miles or longer. According to longtime handicapper J. Keeler Johnson, that’s a trait shared by 16 of the last 20 Arkansas Derby winners.
Litmus Test also came out of Oaklawn’s Arkansas Derby prep: the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, where he finished third. Rebel starters found the Oaklawn winner’s circle 45 percent of the time (9-for-20). Now, Litmus Test failed a test of sorts in that Rebel, finishing third to Class President and Silent Tactic after fading in the stretch. He’ll need to rebound from his 91 Equibase Speed Figure back to the triple-digit numbers recorded in his previous two races, both in 2025, when Litmus Test won two of his first five starts. Baffert sends first-time jockey Francisco Arrieta into the irons with the expectation that his pace-pressing/stalking style will win the conditioner his 10th Arkansas Derby in the last 21 outings.
To pass that litmus test, Litmus Test will have to tame Renegade, the 3-2 morning-line favorite. The Into Mischief colt opened his ledger 0-for-3 before winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes in early February at Tampa Bay Downs. That win was further validated when third-place finisher The Puma won the Tampa Bay Derby. Renegade has an on-track victory over Derby futures favorite Paladin in a maiden mile at Aqueduct, but was disqualified to second. He also finished second to Paladin in the Grade 3 Remsen Stakes. Make of it what you will, that Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the reins instead of riding Florida Derby contender Commandment.
The third expected factor is Silent Tactic (5-2), who already has enough points (50) to likely make the Derby 152 field. The Tacitus colt has been in the mix in all three previous Oaklawn Park Derby preps, finishing second in the Smarty Jones, winning the Southwest Stakes, then losing by a nose to Class President in the Rebel. The deep closer needs a fast pace to run into Saturday, but comes with his own Hall of Fame trainer: Mark Casse, pulling the strings. Casse goes for his second consecutive Arkansas Derby win, after sending Sandman to the winner’s circle last year.
Fun in Florida
Migrating south to the Florida Derby leaves Litmus Test in Arkansas, but comes with its own litmus test of four real contenders who seek to become the fifth Kentucky Derby winner to come out of the Florida Derby in the last 11 Run for the Roses. This race has also produced five of the last 13 and 26 total Derby winners, a figure punctuated by last year’s Derby winner—Sovereignty. He used his runner-up finish in the third and final Gulfstream Derby prep as a springboard to winning the Derby, Belmont, and eventually Horse of the Year.
Someone has to be the morning-line favorite, and Chief Wallabee (2-1) drew the short-odds straw. He drew it despite finishing second to 5-2 Florida Derby second choice Commandment in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. That was only his second race, following a sprint win at Gulfstream Park in January. Among his vanquished competitors was The Puma, which validates the stalker/closer son of Constitution’s favored odds status. A top-three finish will give Hall of Fame trainer (they’re everywhere this time of year) Bill Mott—who conditioned Sovereignty—a shot at back-to-back Derbies.
Between Commandment, Nearly, and The Puma, it won’t be easy. Commandment brings a three-race winning streak into the starting gate, and the Into Mischief colt showed he can win the close races (he beat Chief Wallabee by a neck in the Fountain of Youth) and destroy fields in runaways (witness his nearly seven-length victory in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream. That came after Commandment took apart the field by five lengths in a seven-furlong race at Churchill Downs. Trainer Brad Cox didn’t have far to go to find a replacement for the Arkansas Derby-bound Ortiz, tabbing standout rider Flavien Prat. The pair have won a third of their races since the beginning of 2025, making Commandment the go-to choice here.
The wild cards here are Nearly (3-1) and The Puma (9-2). Nearly comes in off a nearly two-month layoff, where we last saw the Not This Time colt dismantle the Grade 3 Holy Bull by 5 ¾ lengths. That layoff has put Nearly into near do-or-die status when it comes to Derby eligibility, considering the 20 points he earned from that race comprise his total. But you are looking at a stalking/pace-pressing colt riding a three-race win streak—with victory margins of 5 3/4, five, and 9 ¼ lengths—trained by eight-time Florida Derby winner Pletcher and ridden by six-time winner Velazquez.
The Puma already has a spot in the Derby field, courtesy of his third in the Sam F. Davis and his victory in the Tampa Bay Derby. That win illustrated the Essential Quality colt’s closing kick, which stood in stark contrast to his pace-setting January debut, when he lost to Chief Wallabee by fading in the stretch. Trained by Gustavo Delgado, The Puma has hit the board in all three starts (1-1-1) and needs non-factor Gregarious and another speed horse to set the pace he needs to close. But he is definitely worth a spot on your exotics.
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