The eclectic nature of the Louisiana Derby, this week’s marquee stop on the Kentucky Derby trail, brings us three colts who already own victories on the Derby trail. One colt comes in with a single career start, a Bob Baffert import who just broke his maiden, and more than the usual level of ambition and audacity seen from connections in full thrall to Derby fever.
Temperature Rising
Derby fever is particularly virulent this time of year. Especially with a race like Saturday’s Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, which sends its contestants 1 3/16 miles as the flagship race on closing weekend at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. This is the first weekend of serious Derby qualifying points, with the winner capturing 100 points and a spot in the May 2 Derby. The runner-up is also virtually assured of a date at Churchill Downs the first Saturday in May, courtesy of the 50 points on the board. The rest of the breakdown is 25-15-10 for third through fifth.
Along with being one of the longest races on the Derby trail, the Louisiana Derby comes with its own regal history that includes four past Derby champions. But only two: Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996, won both races. The other two: Country House (2019) and Mandaloun (2021) missed the Louisiana Derby board but won the Derby via disqualification. Risen Star (1988), the namesake of Fair Grounds’ previous Derby prep, won the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
Hot Horses
Speaking of Risen Star, two alums from that February race return—minus the winner: current Derby futures favorite Paladin, who is headed to the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland for his final prep. That opens matters up for 3-1 morning-line favorite Chip Honcho and second choice Golden Tempo (7-2), both of whom will take plenty of money.
The cascade of cash will hit Chip Honcho due to his three prior Derby trail efforts. The Louisiana Derby will give the son of Connect starts in all four Fair Grounds Derby preps, where he is 3-1-1-0. The win came in December’s Gun Runner Stakes, followed by an off-the-board fourth in January’s Lecomte Stakes. But it was his runner-up finish by a half-length to Paladin, complete with a career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure, that has opened eyes and wallets.
Chip Honcho has three other factors going for him. There’s not a lot of early speed to push his pacesetting/pressing style; his pedigree includes the iconic stallion Curlin as his grandsire, and there is Steve Asmussen pulling the training strings in the paddock. The Hall-of-Famer has won five of these, including two of the last four with Tiztastic last year and Epicenter in 2022.
Chip Honcho can look three gates over and see another Curlin product with Fair Grounds chops: Golden Tempo. The son of Curlin has two wins and a third in his three outings: winning a maiden race and the Lecomte in his Derby trail debut, then finishing third by six lengths in the Risen Star. That latter race came as a byproduct of Golden Tempo’s closing style, which doesn’t bode well in a field missing a lot of early front-end speed. He’ll need to rely more on his distance-rich pedigree and less on letting the field get away from him as it did in the Risen Star. With 35 points in the bank, any top-five finish should get this Cherie de Vaux charge into the Derby.
Wilder Cards
Now comes the wild cards, starting with Emerging Market (6-1). You’ll see plenty of money come in on this Chad Brown Derby hopeful based on his maiden-breaking win at Tampa Bay Downs last month, where he prevailed over a two-turn mile and 40 yards at 3-1. This is where we note that this is Emerging Market’s one and only race to date. This prompted Brown to play Tetris with his Derby hopefuls, moving Emerging Market to the Louisiana Derby and Paladin to the Blue Grass.
This is uncharted and much deeper waters for the son of 2016 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, who will need to replicate his 97 Beyer Speed Figure and get a typically stellar ride from Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat coming off the outside post to factor here. But he is a must-use on your tickets for those reasons and for his stalking style, which plays well in Derby preps.
A wilder card is Blacksmith (6-1), who ships in from California courtesy of Baffert. Now, it bears mentioning that Baffert rarely sends horses to Fair Grounds, preferring Oaklawn Park as his secondary outlet for his flotilla of Derby contenders. In fact, Baffert hasn’t sent a colt to the Louisiana Derby winner’s circle since Wimbledon in 2004, and he hasn’t had a starter since Code West finished sixth in 2013.
But the Liam’s Map colt does come in with Derby points: five of them, courtesy of his second-place finish in the 1 1/16-mile Los Alamitos Futurity. Blacksmith opened 2026 with a third in a Santa Anita maiden, then a nearly four-length victory in a five-horse maiden mile at 3-5. Baffert dispatches former Fair Grounds mainstay Florent Geroux back to his former winter home. Known as an aggressive jockey, Geroux will have Blacksmith pounding away early to not only capitalize on his pace-pressing/stalker style but to keep Chip Honcho from wiring the field.
The other Derby trail winner was Pavlovian (6-1), who captured the Sunland Derby and its 20 points in February. The Cal-bred son of Pavel already has nine starts under his hooves, hitting the board in six (2-3-1) for trainer Doug O’Neil, who won this event in 2021 with Hot Rod Charlie. His previous three outings before that Sunland Derby win came in Santa Anita Cal-breds—and they weren’t anything to bet home about: a third, fourth, and the dreaded DNF, when Pavlovian threw jockey, Juan Hernandez. He’ll need a significant speed boost to contend in what is by far his sternest test.
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