And then, there were four…
The College Football Playoff quarterfinals brought us two upsets—one of which (Miami 24, Ohio State 14) we called—and two emphatic statements: one of which (Indiana 38, Alabama 3) we called. As savvy readers of the Gridiron Guru remember, we liked Oregon’s speed, but figured Texas Tech’s offense would at least make a cameo.
(Narrator) “Texas Tech’s offense did not make a cameo.”
Aside from making the day of every Notre Dame fan, Indiana’s 35-point rout of an outclassed Alabama team made history. The Hoosiers are now the only program in the two-year history of the expanded CFP to win a quarterfinal game following a bye week. This dominant Rose Bowl performance officially ended the “bye week curse.” Teams receiving the first-round bye are now 1-7.
It also made the Hoosiers the favorites to hoist the national championship trophy on January 19.
But before we—and Indiana’s delirious fans—get ahead of ourselves, there’s this week’s CFP semifinals. There, we find Ole Miss, fresh off its overtime, 39-34 avenging circus victory over SEC rival Georgia, tangling with Miami in the Fiesta Bowl. And in the other semifinal, the Peach Bowl, we find one of the best games of the bowl season: a rematch between Indiana and Oregon. The unbeaten Hoosiers won Round 1, going into Eugene and beating the Ducks, 30-20, on October 11. Oregon hasn’t lost since.
From a wagering standpoint, all four teams are 9-5 ATS this season. And every team has covered throughout the CFP except Oregon. The Ducks failed to do so after a second-half slump against James Madison allowed the Dukes a backdoor cover of the 20.5-point line.
Last week: 2-2. Season (ATS): 31-27.
Fiesta Bowl—No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Miami
The reason you’re seeing the Rebels here and not No. 2 Georgia is because Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss is a magician who made the Bulldogs’ vaunted defense disappear. As prolific as Indiana’s Heisman-winning QB Fernando Mendoza has been, Chambliss has been the most exciting player in the CFP. He torched the Bulldogs for 362 passing yards, two TDs, and a climactic drive that clinched the Rebels’ comeback win.
Now—what does Chambliss do for an encore against one of the best pass rushes and run defenses in the country? Miami’s feral pass rush is third in the nation in pressure rate (39.6 percent) and boasts the top pass-rush grade from PFF (92.2). Edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor have combined for 33 pressures and seven sacks in the Hurricanes’ CFP wins over Texas Tech and Ohio State.
Don’t let that take your attention away from Miami’s run defense. A defense that forces teams to go airborne because it makes opposing running games disappear. The Hurricanes are fifth in the nation in rushing yards allowed (84) and rushing attempts (29.9), and are sixth in rushing yards per attempt (2.8). PFF ranks Miami No. 2 among all defensive lines in both total grade as a unit and run-defense grade.
This does not bode well for Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy, he of the Power 4-leading 23 TDs and No. 3 1,461 yards this season. This means Chambliss is going to have to don the top hat and wand yet again if the Rebels are going to play to their No. 5-ranked (496 yards per game) offense.
Chambliss is going to have to keep the tempo hot and the tightrope sturdy if he’s going to get Ole Miss into its first national championship game. This is a significant challenge, as the Rebels currently possess the statistically weakest defense among the four remaining playoff teams. Standing in their way is a Miami squad that has been dominant this year, boasting a perfect 6-0 record against the spread versus Top-25 opponents.
Best Bets: Miami -3.5 (Even at BetMGM) and Under-52 (-109 at Caesars).
Peach Bowl—No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon
Not only is this a delicious rematch between two of the most entertaining teams in the nation, but it gives us a likely preview of the first two players picked in April’s NFL Draft. That would be Mendoza and—if he comes out—Oregon QB Dante Moore.
It also puts both Moore and Mendoza on the spot. Neither of them was particularly entertaining in that October 11 game. Indiana sacked Moore six times—40 percent of the total sacks he endured all season. And that came against an Oregon offensive line that is one of the best units in the country.
The Hoosiers also yielded Moore one TD pass. One. That, against the most explosive-play offense in the country. Of course, that means bupkis to the Indiana defense, which has allowed only 13 deep completions all season and ranks fourth in yards per completion (9.7), fourth in yards allowed (252.6), and second in points allowed (10.3). Meanwhile, Indiana’s No. 3-rated run defense shackled the Ducks’ talented trio of backs: Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr. to a meager 116 yards on the ground. This was the only game in which Oregon failed to score a rushing TD.
Even though he’s the No. 1-rated passer in the nation, Mendoza, however, wasn’t faultless in that first matchup. There was his pick-6 that allowed Oregon to tie the game at 20. There was his 49.4 PFF passing grade, his second-lowest of the season. And there were uncharacteristic burps against an Oregon blitz that will intensify. The Ducks bring their own feral defense, ranking fourth in completion percentage allowed (51.7 percent), fifth in yards per play (4.3), eighth in passing yards per game (156.6), and ninth in points allowed (15.1).
This will come down to how much Oregon absorbed from that first meeting, how much they can adapt, and what new questions Indiana can pose. As we see it, it also comes down to the fact that, as prolific as Oregon’s No. 6 offense in yards per game (457.5) and No. 7 offense in points per game (38.0), the Ducks haven’t exactly quacked loudly against elite defenses.
Against Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, and Texas Tech, the four best defenses Oregon has seen this year, its offense averaged barely 17 points a game. Only once, against Penn State in a game that went to overtime, did Oregon hit 30 points.
Add to this that, according to VSiN Analyst Steve Makinen, favorites are on a 30-10 SU and 26-14 ATS streak in playoff or New Year’s Six bowl games featuring Big Ten teams, and Indiana is 7-1 ATS against defenses that allow less than 20 points a game. We’re going to be entertained. But we’re also going to see familiarity in this sequel.
Best Bet: Indiana -3.5 (-115 at both BetMGM and Caesars).
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