Does anyone remember the late, unlamented Poulan Weed Eater Independence Bowl? How about the Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl? Did the winners of the Galleryfurniture.com Bowl get free loveseats? And help the Gridiron Guide out here. Did the hundreds of fans who attended the Meinecke Car Care Bowl get buy-one-get-one-free muffler coupons?
The Guide could go on. Even in a world where bowl games sound like parodies of themselves—when they’re not sounding like punchlines, the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl takes bowl names into new levels of self-parody. Who wants to play in a bowl game that sounds like a schizophrenic charcuterie plate?
Hello, Iowa Hawkeyes and Tennessee Volunteers. You’re up.
Too bad you missed out on a late, very lamented bowl that was played seven times between 1907 and 1946 in Havana, Cuba. It marks the only bowl game played outside the United States. It was called the Bacardi Bowl.
Cheez-It! Iowa’s Defense Is Coming
If there is one trend in the 2023 college football season that is almost as reliable as the Guide’s beloved Service Academy Under, it’s the Iowa Hawkeyes Under. How reliable? The Hawkeyes are 11-2 to the Under this season. They haven’t sniffed an Over since surpassing a 36.5 total with a 26-16 victory over Michigan State September 30.
The books have tampered with the Hawkeyes’ total like a limbo bar. Nearly every time, Iowa has slithered under it like an amoeba. While the Hawkeyes’ defense has shown plenty of spine, allowing a fourth-best-in-the-nation average of 13.2 points per game and a fifth-best 274 yards per game, the Iowa offense defines “invertebrates.” Iowa’s offense comes into this Cheez-It Citrus Bowl smelling like month-old Limberger. The Hawkeyes are 130th in points per game (16.6) and dead last in yards per game (240.2). They’ve surpassed 20 points twice since the beginning of October.
Now, enter the Tennessee Volunteers, who average 453.5 yards and 31.5 points per game with QB Joe Milton who won’t be playing. But that may be the cheesiest statistic concerning any bowl team, because the Vols’ offense defines “manic-depressive.” It rang up 48 against Vanderbilt, 59 against UConn, 41 against South Carolina, 45 against UT-San Antonio and 49 against Virginia. That concludes the “manic” portion of this discussion, because the Vols were depressive in losses to Georgia (38-10), Missouri (36-7), Alabama (34-20) and Florida (29-16). None of which have a defense as good as Iowa’s. Who knows how many points they’ll score with a backup signal caller. Something in this Cheez-It Citrus Bowl has to give and while taking Iowa at +8 is not a bad wager, we’re betting what gives won’t be one of our favorite trends.
Best Bet: Under-36.5 (-108 at BetMGM)
Watch: Monday, 1 p.m. ET, ABC or fuboTV
Blake Takes Two
Michigan Wolverine running back Blake Corum was the 40th most prolific rusher in the country this year. He barely surpassed 1,000 yards (1,028, on a 4.7-yards-per-carry average). To put this into perspective, Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels outgained Corum by 106 yards. So did Big 10 rushing leader Kyle Monangai (1,099 yards) of 6-6 Rutgers.
But when it comes to seeing red in the red zone, the line forms behind Corum, who led all running backs with 24 touchdowns. Every nine times Corum touched the ball this season, he found the end zone. In six of his last seven games he found it more than once. This includes Corum torching the Iowa Hawkeyes for two TDs in the Big 10 Championship.
To fully appreciate this fact, understand Corum scored half of the rushing TDs the Iowa defense allowed all season. Corum scored at least two TDs in nine of 13 games this season, which makes him -200 to score at least one TD against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the CFP semifinal. But we like trends that come with plus-money, which is why we like the Wolverines’ bell-cow back to add to his 55 career TDs in multiples at the Rose Bowl. Only one sportsbook has this prop bet so wait until it hits BetRivers, who usually has good odds.
Best Bet: Blake Corum to score two or more TDs (+230)
Watch: Monday, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN or fuboTV
Make your first-time deposit with BetRivers in Michigan and New Jersey and place your first sports wager. If your first wager loses, receive a Free Bet, equal to your stake, up to a maximum of $500. Free Bet will be awarded within 24 Hours of your qualifying wager settling as a loss.
Here’s A Sweet Total to Chew On
If these two Allstate Sugar Bowl contestants look familiar to Guide followers, well, they should. This was the Guide’s biggest bowl slam-dunk of the 2022 bowl season when oddsmakers at Caesars somehow made the Washington Huskies a four-point underdog against the Texas Longhorns in their Alamo Bowl standoff last year.
Nobody was playing better football than the Huskies going into that game, making their 27-20 victory one of the easiest cruises to the window of the season. Meanwhile, it’s arguable nobody is playing better football than the Huskies going into this game. Washington is 13-0 and has won its last 20 games dating to last year. It defeated four top-25 teams in their last five games. They beat a total of nine ranked teams. The Huskies are 7-0 in one-score games and are 11th in the nation in scoring offense (37.7 points per game).
So why is Washington the biggest underdog among the four College Football Playoff teams, collecting four points here? Because the Huskies’ defense faces an incendiary Texas offense averaging 36.2 points (16th) with the 120th-ranked passing defense. Washington allows teams to convert more than 40% of its third downs, catnip to one of the hottest QBs in the nation in Quinn Ewers.
The other X-factor is the Longhorns’ defense, which allows opposing runners only 80.8 yards per game—a crucial tell against Washington RB Dillon Johnson. That said, we expect Heisman runner-up QB Michael Penix Jr., a.k.a. The Nation’s Leading Passer, to get his. We expect Ewers to get his. Seven times this season, Washington and its opponent have reached or surpassed 63 points. Texas, meanwhile, is 4-6 to the Under in its last 10 games yet scored 30 or more points 11 times in 13 games. That includes scoring 13 touchdowns and 108 points in its last two games. We lean taking Washington and the 4.5, but we strongly lean where these video-game numbers take us.
Best Bet: Over 63.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Monday, 8:45 p.m. ET, ESPN or fuboTV
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