The NFL trade deadline passed, and the San Francisco 49ers (7-1) and Buffalo Bills (7-1) are the consensus co-favorites to win the Super Bowl at +550 odds, according to BetMGM.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) strengthen their already robust defense with several trade deadline acquisitions. The Jags are now +750 to win the Super Bowl, along with the Chicago Bears (7-2) at +750.
The Minnesota Vikings made one of the biggest moves at the deadline when they acquired Kirk Cousins from the Las Vegas Raiders. The Vikings are now +2500 odds to win the Super Bowl.
Let’s look at the favorites and other contenders at the start of Week 10.
49ers (7-1): Banged Up, Yet the Team to Beat
Super Bowl Odds: +550
The 49ers are undefeated at home (5-0) and have yet to lose a division game (3-0). Even with a depleted wide receiving corps, the 49ers are tied for the NFL’s best record. They emerged as the betting favorite after a 5-0 start. They’re also the favorite to win the NFC championship at +250.
The 49ers’ defense is ranked #6 in scoring (19.5 ppg) while their offense is third (29.4 ppg). With wide receiver Mike Evans expected to miss time, they added veteran Keenan Allen at the trade deadline.
Bills (7-1): Josh Allen or Bust
Super Bowl Odds: +550
The Bills rely on their league-leading, high-octane offense (32.0 ppg) to overcompensate for their porous defense. They added safety Amani Hooker at the deadline to shore up their secondary. The Bills still have the fourth-worst run defense, allowing 238.8 yards per game. Their inability to stop the run could derail a trip to the Super Bowl.
The Bills are +250 to win the AFC Championship and make their first Super Bowl appearance in 33 seasons. The Bills are still a popular pick to win the Super Bowl at +500.
Bears (7-2): On the Rise After Simmons Boost
Super Bowl Odds: +750
Both Bears’ losses were against division rivals, with four more games versus NFC North squads on the schedule.
Caleb Williams posted a 5-1 record as the starting quarterback, while backup quarterbacks went 2-1 in his absence. Even with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagnet under center for three games, the Bears’ offense (26.8 ppg) is ranked #7. Acquiring lineman Jeffrey Simmons in a trade strengthened their defense, which is ranked #9 (20.4 ppg).
The Bears are currently the #2 seed and the second favorite on the board to win the NFC Championship at +400. You can take a flier on them to win the Super Bowl at +750.
Jaguars (6-2): Upgrading D at Trade Deadline
Super Bowl Odds: +750
The Jaguars boast the NFL’s second-best scoring defense (15.1 ppg), and they’re ranked fourth in scoring (28.6 ppg). The Jags were not messing around at the trade deadline. They added a pair of former first-round picks in DT Jordan Davis and safety Jessie Bates III.
Trevor Lawrence thrives in Liam Coen’s offense. With 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions, Lawrence is on pace to set a career record for touchdown passes.
The Jaguars saw their Super Bowl price improve to +750 after their aggressive acquisitions, and they’re now +350 to win the AFC Championship as the second favorite on the board.
Chiefs (6-2): Kelce’s Last Hurrah?
Super Bowl Odds: +1100
After a sizzling 5-0 start, thanks to a revitalized rushing attack with Kenneth Walker, the Chiefs lost two in a row on the road against the Seahawks and the Broncos. They ended their mini-skid against the Jets to improve to 6-2.
The Chiefs were thin at wide receiver, so they added Josh Downs from the Colts at the trade deadline.
All signs suggest this will be Travis Kelce’s final season, so he’s hell-bent on winning one more Super Bowl before he retires. The Chiefs are +1100 odds to win the Super Bowl, and their fourth on the board to win the AFC Championship at +550.
Cincinnati Bengals (6-2): Healthy Burrow on the Prowl
Super Bowl Odds: +1200
The Bengals won four in a row after a 2-2 start, but both losses were one-score games. The Bengals are sneaky good on the road with a 4-1 record. Although they were designated as the home team this past week in Madrid, Spain, the Bengals won that game as well and improved to 5-1 in games outside their home stadium.
The Bengals have the second most lethal offense (30.0 ppg) in the league. Joe Burrow looks amazing, leading the NFL with 23 touchdowns. He’s second overall in QBR (79.6) and passer rating (114.8). Those are career-best numbers too. Burrow is currently the betting favorite to win the MVP (+250), according to BetMGM.
The Bengals are favorites (-230) to win the Smashmouth title for the first time since 2022. The Bengals are now +550 odds to win the AFC Championship and return to the Super Bowl for the first time since their magical 2021 season. You can back them to win the Super Bowl at +1200.
Denver Broncos (7-2): Winning Ugly, Surviving Close Games
Super Bowl Odds: +1600
Sean Payton and the Broncos figure out how to win games with a stingy defense (20.7 ppg). They’re ranked #20 (22.0 ppg) in scoring, yet somehow Bo Nix conjures up just enough offense to squeeze out a victory.
When will variance catch up to the Broncos? All seven of their victories are one-score games. Dating back to last season, including the playoffs, their last 16 victories were one-score games.
If the season ended today, the Broncos would snag the #2 seed in the AFC. They’re +600 to win the AFC Championship, but ninth on the board to win the Super Bowl at +1600.
Last Year’s Super Bowl Teams: Seahawks and Patriots on the Bubble
The Seahawks (5-4) and Patriots (5-4) have the same record, but only the Patriots would qualify for the postseason right now. The Patriots are +1300 to win consecutive AFC championships, but +2800 to win the Super Bowl. The Seahawks are +1500 to win back-to-back Super Bowls, and +850 to win another NFC title game.
The Seahawks need to finish strong in the second half if they expect to qualify for the playoffs and defend their championship. Seattle has a favorable non-division schedule the rest of the way with only three more NFC West games.
The Patriots went 14-3 last season facing the easiest schedule in the NFL. They already lost more games than last season with tougher teams on the docket. The Patriots fly to Germany to play the Lions in Munich this week. After a bye, they have a three-week stretch against the Bills, Vikings, and Chiefs. They also host the Broncos in Week 17, which is a rematch of the AFC Championship game from last season.
NFC Wild Card Denizens: Lions, Vikings, and Packers
If the season ended today, all four NFC North teams would advance to the playoffs. The first-place Bears (7-2) would lock up the #2 seed. The Lions (6-2), Vikings (6-2), and Packers (6-3) currently occupy Wild Card spots. The Vikings slipped to third place after losing two in a row. The Lions won four in a row and moved into second place. The Packers are in last place but playing much better.
The Vikings have the top defense (14.5 ppg) in the league, but one of the least effective offenses (18.3 ppg). They were desperate to add a quarterback at the trade deadline with Kyler Murray banged up, and backup QB Carson Wentz playing poorly. They acquired Kirk Cousins in a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders. The Vikings hope Cousins can jump-start their stagnant offense upon his return to the Twin Cities.
The Bears (+135) are the favorite to win the division ahead of the Lions (+220), Vikings (+400), and Packers (+850). The Lions are +800 to win the NFC Championship, followed by the Packers (+1000) and Vikings (+1100). The Lions are +1800 to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Packers (+2200) and Vikings (+2500).
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