After five weeks of NFL action, the best betting teams have a 4-1 record against the spread: Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Las Vegas Raiders, and the New York Giants. It’s not surprising to see Super Bowl contenders like the Bills or 49ers at the top of the list. However, the undefeated Vikings and the first-place Giants feel like they came out of nowhere.
The L.A. Chargers (0-4-1) have the worst ATS record along with the Philadelphia Eagles (1-4), Houston Texans (1-4), and Tampa Bay Bucs (1-4).
The Detroit Lions have the best scoring offense in the NFL and a perfect 5-0 record to the Over. The Dallas Cowboys are the second best at 4-1. Both teams combine potent offenses with terrible defenses.
Meanwhile, seven teams have a 4-1 Unders record, including the New York Jets, Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Vikings, and the Chargers.
Let’s take a closer look at some of these trending teams.
Vikings (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 Under)
The undefeated Vikings’ offense is ranked #20 (21.8 ppg), which is just enough to start 5-0 thanks to Brian Flores’ stifling defense (12.8 ppg). Since allowing 22 points to the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, the Vikings have held opponents to 10.5 ppg in their last four games. With the best defense in the league, the Vikings are 4-1 if you’ve been betting their Under.
The Vikings have a bye this week, but four out of their next five opponents rank in the Top 9 in scoring. It’s time to jump off the Vikings betting bandwagon for both sides and totals.
49ers (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS)
The undefeated 49ers boast the third-best defense (18.6 ppg), despite facing three teams who won at least 12 games and made the playoffs last season.
Their relentless offense ranks third overall (30.8 ppg). Brock Purdy is making a strong case for MVP with an NFL-best 13 touchdowns.
The 49ers host the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football this week and visit the Atlanta Falcons next week before their bye. After the bye, they face the Raiders and Cowboys before a showdown in Mexico City against the Vikings in Week 11.
Bills (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 Over)
Josh Allen leads a dangerous offense, but their shaky defense is why they played in four one-score games. The Bills are tied for most points scored (32.8 ppg), but also have a bottom five defense (28.2 ppg). That combination fueled a 4-1 record to the Over.
Their next two opponents, the Raiders on Sunday and the Ravens in Week 8 after a bye, have weak defenses and rank in the Top 9 in scoring. Over the last two games, opponents averaged 37.5 ppg against the Raiders, while the Ravens allowed at least 23 points in four games.
Giants (3-1-1 SU, 4-1 ATS)
Backup QB Jameis Winston has been a capable replacement after Jaxson Dart suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2. The Giants hold down first place in the NFC East because both the Eagles and Cowboys have been underachieving. Under John Harbaugh, the Giants exceeded market expectations with a 4-1 ATS record courtesy of a Top 10 defense (21.2 ppg). They were a favorite only once this season, and 3-1 ATS as an underdog.
The Giants host the New Orleans Saints in Week 6 and visit the Houston Texans in Week 7 before a bye. After the bye, the Giants face a difficult schedule. They play back-to-back division games at the Eagles in Week 9 and host the Commanders on Thursday Night Football in Week 10. They also meet probable playoff teams including the Jaguars (Week 11), 49ers (Week 13), and Seahawks (Week 14).
Raiders (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS)
After a shocking 3-0 start, the Raiders lost two in a row. After last Sunday’s blowout in New England, the Raiders are still tied for the best betting record in the league at 4-1 ATS, including 3-1 as an underdog. Under offensive guru Klint Kubiak, the Raiders rank ninth in scoring (26.4 ppg). That’s a major overhaul from last season when they were ranked dead last (14.2 ppg).
This is an optimal time to fade the Raiders. Their scoring defense is ranked 10th-worst (25.8 ppg), and allowed 34 ppg in their last three games. Five of their next six opponents have winning records and they’re an underdog according to look-ahead lines against the Bills, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos.
Chargers (0-5 SU, 0-4-1 ATS, 4-1 Unders)
The winless Chargers are a volcanic hot mess. Their offense ranks third-worst in scoring (16.8 ppg) and passing (164.6 yards per game). They exceeded 20 points just once this season. Until multiple starting offensive linemen return from injuries, it will be challenging to find the end zone in the immediate future. Four out of their next six opponents have a Top 8 defense.
The Chargers face a well-rested Chiefs, fresh off a bye. After their own much-needed bye in Week 7, the Chargers square off against the Rams in the Battle of L.A. They also face the Ravens and Patriots in November.
The Chargers might have to wait until Week 9 to end their losing streak when the Texans visit L.A. They also have the Jets slated in Week 11. There’s a strong possibility that head coach Jim Harbaugh fires offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel if they have yet to win a game by Week 12.
Texans (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS)
The Texans finally got off the schneid with their first victory after a 0-4 start. Then again, three of their four losses were one-score games. Although their offense remains subpar, their defense allowed only 14.0 ppg over the last three games.
The Texans fly to London to play the Jaguars this week and host the Giants in Week 7. After their bye in Week 8, they face three losing squads. They hit the road to play the Chargers and Browns, then host the Colts in Week 11. If the Texans turn things around, they could be 5-5 by the end of November.
Eagles (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS)
After a heartbreaking loss to the Jaguars in London last Sunday, the Eagles tumbled to 2-3. Their losing streak extended to three in a row. They kicked off the season with two victories, which were not that impressive and by a total of six points.
The limp Eagles rank in the bottom four in scoring (18.4 ppg). They can’t wait for Saquon Barkley to return to action to jump-start their offense. Their passing attack is the fifth-worst, averaging only 170 yards per game.
Despite one of the worst betting records in the league at 1-4 ATS, the Eagles are an underdog in just one matchup through Christmas Eve when they face the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
The Eagles host the Carolina Panthers this week, then battle three NFC East teams in a row before a bye in Week 10. The division is wide open, and the Eagles could soar to first place by mid-November. According to multiple reports, head coach Nick Sirianni will lose his job if the Eagles miss the playoffs.
High-Octane Overs: Lions and Cowboys
The Lions (3-2 SU, 5-0 Over) lead the NFL in scoring with a dual-threat offense. Jared Goff has yet to throw an interception. Jahmyr Gibbs looks unstoppable with two games where he amassed at least 150 rushing yards. Keep hammering the Over because their Swiss cheese defense ranks in the bottom four (29.6 ppg).
The Cowboys (2-3 SU, 4-1 Over) have the seventh-worst defense (27.2 ppg), but a strong offense (27.6 ppg) that’s also ranked #7. Three of their next four games should be shootouts, so keep firing away at their Over.
Low-Fi Unders: Jets and Titans
The Jets (2-3 SU, 4-1 Under) rank sixth with a strong scoring defense (119.2 ppg). They held opponents to fewer than 200 total yards three times in their first five games. Their erratic offense has been the big problem, ranked among the bottom five (18.6 ppg). The Jets play two upcoming divisional games against the winless Miami Dolphins (14.0 ppg), and they head to L.A. to face the offensively challenged Chargers (16.8 ppg). That’s three games against two of the lowest-scoring teams in the league. They also face two stingy defenses with upcoming games against the Patriots (18.8 ppg) and Chiefs (19.3 ppg).
The Titans (0-5 SU, 4-1 Under) still seek their first win under new head coach Robert Saleh. Their horrendous offense (11.6 ppg) includes the worst rushing attack and second-worst passing attack. Their improving defense is now ranked #13 (21.8 ppg). A Week 7 matchup against the low-scoring Cleveland Browns is their best opportunity to secure their first win.
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