Imagine for a moment you have Michigan on the money line in a parlay. You’re watching the Wolverines step on every rake in the state against a directional team, albeit a directional team in Western Michigan that won the Mid-American Conference title last year.
You’re watching Michigan about to lose, 12-7, to a 27.5-point underdog. In fact, you did watch highly touted sophomore QB Bryce Underwood overthrow the universe in a Hail Mary that should have ended the game.
The key word in that first paragraph is “moment.” Because in that moment, you went from what-are-we-doing-here? disbelief to what-just-happened? relief when the officials put one second back on the clock, and Underwood bailed out the Wolverines with his “Bail Mary” (as The Athletic called it) mulligan to JJ Buchanan. The resulting 13-12 Michigan “win” saved numerous betting tickets as readily and improbably as it saved the Wolverines’ season.
That was the craziest moment in what was a fairly predictable week of sharks vs. minnows. Nearly two-thirds of favorites covered, totals that included our Week 1 pick of Notre Dame over Wisconsin (41-13 as 22-point favorites). It also included USC whacking Fresno St. 39-0 as 22-point favorites—our one loss for the week.
It did not include Colorado, which nipped Georgia Tech, 14-13, as 6.5-point dogs. And it did not include Tulsa, which handled new and apparently not improved Oklahoma State 24-10 as 13.5-point dogs.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 2-1.
Tennessee Volunteering to Sting Yellowjackets
You’ve heard of trap games, games that look deceptive for an ostensible favorite who could be looking ahead to future attractions/opponents? Well, for Georgia Tech, this isn’t one of them. This is a game that could trap their season in a drain-circling spiral. After the aforementioned one-point loss as 6.5-point favorites to Colorado, staying with the 13th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers isn’t merely desirable.
It’s a necessity.
The Yellowjackets looked decent in spots last week, primarily with Indiana ex-pat QB Alberto Mendoza, who takes over for the multi-talented Haynes King. Mendoza, the younger brother of former Indiana QB and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, went an efficient 17 for 23 for 237 yards. But Mendoza the Younger and the rest of Georgia Tech’s offense—all 288 yards of it—were undone by a woeful offensive line.
This plays into an improved Tennessee defense that cruised in a 56-9 thrashing of Furman. The Vols get LB Arlon Carter back after a one-game suspension, boosting a defense that racked up seven sacks last week. Now, add freshman QB Faizon Brandon, the SEC Freshman of the Week after accounting for five touchdowns overall (three passing, two rushing) via a 13-of-17, 226 yards through the air and another 68 on the ground.
Georgia Tech is 13-6 as an ATS underdog under Brent Key, and the Yellowjackets will probably find their sting as the season progresses. It hasn’t progressed far enough yet.
Best Bet: Tennessee -12 (-110 at BetMGM)
Ohio State-Texas Promise to Provide Points
Here is the dawn-of-the-season game everyone’s been waiting for: two ranked teams (Ohio State No. 1; Texas No. 4) who are expected to be among the final teams standing come January. And when we last left these two at the dawn of last season, the host Buckeyes were harassing Texas’ Heisman candidate QB Arch Manning into a prime-time, not-ready-for-prime-time performance in Ohio State’s 14- 7 victory.
Here, however, we find the Buckeyes minus many of the defensive weapons that went medieval on Manning and the Longhorns. Ohio State had seven defensive starters drafted, including five in the first 62 picks. We also find the game in Austin. And we find Manning supported with weapons such as WRs Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo and RBs Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown.
Ohio State comes loaded with Heisman candidates QB Julian Sayin and the incandescent WR Jeremiah Smith, the architects of the 671 yards and 56 points the Buckeyes racked up in last week’s 56-3 drubbing of Ball State.
And these two will put up points. Lots of points. You could factor in the Longhorns’ home field and the fact that Ohio State is 1-4 SU under Ryan Day in the unfamiliar role of underdog and take favored Texas. But despite the 0-4 trend to the Under, there’s a juicier bet appropriate for this game.
Best Bet: Over-48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Deviating from the Cy-Hawk Norm
The line for this reliable rivalry opened with host Iowa favored by 12.5. But despite both teams opening their 2026 accounts with decisive victories (Iowa 40-0 over Northern Illinois and Iowa State 38, Southeast Missouri State 10), the line is up to 14.
Ignore those scores. In this fractious, often-sloppy rivalry, the Under has hit six of the last seven years. Only three times in the last seven meetings has a team hit the 20-point mark: Iowa in its 2021 27-17 and 2023 20-13 victories and Iowa State in its 2024 20-19 score.
With that table set, understand that a 14-point line is huge, considering the last eight games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. And understand that we’ve always been unapologetic about betting Iowa Unders.
But with former ISU coach Matt Campbell now coaching up Penn State, we welcome former Washington State coach Jimmy Rogers to his first Cy-Hawk Trophy game. Rogers, in turn, welcomes more than a dozen first-year transfers from non-Power Four programs to the Cyclones. That includes QB Jaylen Raynor, an Arkansas State transfer who has thrown one TD pass in four starts against P4 teams.
Against Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz’s usual feral defense, which held Northern Illinois to 2.2 yards per carry on the ground, we don’t expect this total to increase. Nor do we expect Iowa’s standout offensive line to miss a beat here. Ergo, we like the “Hawk” half to lift the Cy-Hawk Trophy.
Best Bet: Iowa -14 (-110 at BetMGM)
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