Finally.
It only took 14 weeks, give or take a few weeks off, to regain the form of the last two years, dodge the minefields of Rivalry Week and put the homework to good use. Our first 3-0 week of the season came in what could have been a tricky week. Rivalry games throw another variable into the equation that can skew the value we seek when handicapping games.
See “Michigan 13, Ohio State 10” for ready reference. Here’s where we should mention the Wolverines were 19 ½-point underdogs in that game.
This week is Championship Week, where spots in the College Football Playoff are decided. Not all of these games offer the value-meets-opportunity situations we seek. But the ones that do deserve your attention.
Last week: 3-0. Season: 13-17.
Let Us Worship These Sun Devils
Have we said how much we like Arizona State this season? We have? Well, let’s explain why we worship the Sun Devils to win the Big 12 Championship in their maiden voyage—even in what looks to be a fairly even Big 12 Championship game in Arlington, Texas.
Where do we start? With the fact Arizona State is 6-1 ATS when favored by less than seven points. How about the Sun Devils’ 10-2 ATS record? The fact they’ve covered in every one of their 10 wins this season?
Have we mentioned how much we love ASU RB Cam Skattebo, he of the 1,398 yards and 17 TDs? How much we love Skattebo against an Iowa State rushing defense that gives up nearly 174 yards per game on the ground? That’s 96th in the country among FBS teams. Or the 5.0 yards per rush the Cyclones spit up? That’s 112th out of the 133 FBS teams.
Iowa State does bring a top-20-ranked defense that allows less than 20 points a game (19.6). The Cyclones are excellent against the pass, ranked second nationally in completion percentage allowed (51.9 percent). They put points on the board (31.8). And the only time Iowa State was an underdog came against rival Iowa—in a game the Cyclones won.
But Iowa State hasn’t sent you to the window lately. It’s 2-4 ATS in its last six games. And even as this line has fluttered between 2 and 3 points, have we mentioned how much we like the Sun Devils—for the third week in a row?
Best Bet: Arizona State -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Playoffs? We’re Talking Playoffs?
Indeed we are—for the winner of this Mountain West Championship, which likely snags the Group of 5 berth to go with its conference title. The last time we saw these two came in late October, when Boise State pulled out a 29-24 victory in a game where UNLV led into the fourth quarter.
That, however, came before the Rebels ran off to a 4-0 SU/2-1-1 ATS run-in for their last four games. This explains why—when this line opened Boise State -6.5—money poured in on UNLV, knocking the number down to 3.5. It crept up to 4 at several books, but again, this causes bettors to decide which bandwagon you want to keep riding.
Hitch yourself to UNLV’s wagon if you think the Rebels can run to their No. 4 ranking in rushing yards (254.1), to their No. 6 ranking in rushing attempts (45)—which has the byproduct of keeping the ball out of Boise State’s Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty—and that they’ll put up somewhere around their 38.7-point average.
Hitch yourself to Boise State’s wagon if you expect Jeanty to pad his already video-game stats beyond the 2,288 yards and 28 TDs he’s racked up. Jeanty has 30-plus carries in six of his last seven games, leading a Broncos’ ground attack that is second nationally in yards per rush (6.4), fourth in rushing yards per play (6.9), fifth in total offense (478.2), and sixth in rushing yards per game (253.5).
In so doing, you’re willing to overlook the fact Boise State hasn’t covered in three of its last four games (with the one cover being that wild game the Broncos had no business covering against San Jose State). That the Broncos are a pedestrian 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10.
Pro tip—we are willing to overlook it. Especially at home.
Best Bet: Boise State -4 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Book Us on the Pony Express
To give you an idea of how much a line can change in relatively short order, we present you the ACC Championship Game, coming to you live from Charlotte, N.C. This line opened Clemson -3 at most shops. It now sits at SMU -2.5.
For explanation, first look at Clemson’s reputation and recent history in ACC championships. The Tigers own eight victories in the ACC Championship Game since its 2005 inception, including six consecutive from 2015-2020. Their most recent came in 2022. Now, look at Clemson’s balanced offense, which ranks in the top-12 in both total offense (465.7/8th) and scoring offense (35.7/17th). The Tigers are the only program in the country averaging both 190 or more rushing yards and 270 or more passing yards per game.
And yet… Clemson is atrocious ATS, going 1-5 in its last six games. And it hasn’t come close to covering in any of them. The Tigers come in off a rude 17-14 loss to state rival South Carolina—as 2.5-point favorites.
We haven’t mentioned SMU and why that line shifted nearly six points virtually overnight. The Mustangs are one of the most dangerous teams in the country, averaging 39.2 points per game (5th nationally) behind do-everything QB Kevin Jennings (2,746 yards, 17 TDs, 161.7 QBR) and RB Breshard Smith (1,157 yards, 14 TDs, 6.0 YPC).
Contrary to the Tigers, SMU takes care of its covering business. The Mustangs are 7-3 ATS and outside of an early September, three-point loss to BYU, take care of SU business. We’ll take our ticket on the Pony Express here.
Best Bet: SMU -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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