One of the eternal truths about Major League Soccer—if not all leagues worldwide—is the difficulty of winning on the road. Simply put, it’s hard to win away from home, as two of the teams we’re discussing this week: CF Montreal and Nashville SC have illustrated.
Montreal is unbeaten at home—and winless on the road. Nashville, one of MLS’s top teams, has better-than-average road form. Yet, the Coyotes—featuring the reigning league MVP as the point of a potent attack—recently lost two games on the road without scoring a goal.
And yet, there are exceptions to the home-cooking-makes-us-Popeye rule. In this week’s Three Bets, we see how rules are sometimes made to be broken.
Can Real Be Salty at Home?
This game features the two best road teams in MLS. Unfortunately for Real Salt Lake, it gets Orlando City SC at home. “Unfortunately,” in this case, means an abysmal 2-4-4 home record. Carrying that further, Real Salt Lake has taken 10 points from a possible 30—third-worse in the 29-team league—and its -5 home-goal differential is the worst in MLS.
Yet, Real Salt Lake is a dangerous team, with Colombian striker and former LA Football Club standout Critian “Chico” Arango joining a team that took 11 points in its last five games. This gives Real Salt Lake a player who scored 35 goals and six assists during his first MLS stint. Arango joins an attack featuring fellow designated players Damir Kreilach and Jefferson Savarino.
Orlando City, meanwhile, came into this week off a 0-0 draw with the Seattle Sounders, completing a brutal three-game stretch against the Sounders, Philadelphia Union, and New England Revolution that produced a respectable two points. The Lions are the only team in MLS with a positive goal differential on the road (plus-3), owners of 15 points out of a possible 27 on the road. They do offer a juicy +210 to bettors thinking their road form will overcome Real Salt Lake’s momentum. But, tempting as that is, we see a rather salty outcome.
Prediction: Real Salt Lake over Orlando City (+120 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 9:30 p.m. ET, Apple TV of fuboTV
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Can Nashville Stop the Fire?
MLS’ Greek Freak didn’t have a monopoly on statistical milestones. Chicago Fire midfielder Brian Gutierrez poured in two more assists, making him only the 10th player in league history to rack up 15 assists before his 21st birthday. This paced the Fire to two road wins, a streak snapped via a 3-1 loss at Orlando. Still, a six-point week on the road is always attention-grabbing in a league where road form is an elusive mistress.
Speaking of elusive, say hello to Nashville SC’s Hany Mukhtar, the front-runner to repeat as MLS MVP. The German midfielder leads the league with 13 goals, with eight assists for good measure. He’s one of three players in league history to score 50 goals and 30 assists over a three-year span. And yet, last week, Mukhtar yielded the spotlight to teammate Randall Leal, who scored twice in Nashville SC’s 2-0 beating of DC United. There’s two reasons why Nashville (38 points) is second on the MLS ladder to FC Cincinnati. A good road form (3-3-4) is reason No. 3. But the hidden reason Nashville SC is an easy go-to here is the number 16. That’s how many goals it’s allowed in 21 MLS matches and it represents the best defense in the league. At Three Bets, we like defense. A lot.
Prediction: Nashville SC over Chicago Fire (+205 at Unibet)
Watch: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET, Apple TV of fuboTV
Greek Freak, Meet Montreal Wall
Meet Giorgos Giakoumakis, the MLS’s own Greek Freak. The Atlanta United striker has scored 10 goals in 14 appearances. Not only is that the fastest rate in club history, but Giakoumakis is only the second player in MLS history to open his career with 10 goals in fewer than 800 career minutes. The ex-pat from Celtic in the Scottish Premier League came into the week tied atop the MLS scoring ladder with those 10 goals. Now, meet Giakoumakis’ running mate, midfielder Thiago Almada, who owns a team-high 10 assists to go with eight goals.
Keeping that unplayable offensive momentum going after a midweek game against powerful Philadelphia Union and into this weekend game is Atlanta United’s pressing question. The answers aren’t optimistic against a CF Montreal team that is 28% better in home/away goals scored (1.67-1.3) and four times better in goals conceded home/away (0.44-2.2). Oh, and this would be a good time to mention Montreal’s unbeaten record at home entering the week. Considering 82% of games with these two featured both goalies pulling balls out of their net, you could take Both Teams To Score at -170. But because Montreal and Atlanta combined for 3.18 goals per game in their previous 11 matches—and because of the Greek Freak—we’re taking more value with another scoring wager.
Prediction: Over-2.5 goals (-135 at Golden Nugget)
Watch: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, Apple TV of fuboTV
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