No, it is not an illusion. No, you don’t need to adjust your program, eyes or Daily Racing Form. Barring any late scratches, you are going to see all three of 2023’s Triple Crown race winners enter the Saratoga starting gate for Saturday’s $1.25 million Travers Stakes.
And why not? It’s only the most important race for 3-year-olds outside of the Triple Crown. Given the weakness of this year’s Preakness field vis-à-vis what we have on Saturday, some trainers put more import into it.
How much importance? The Travers is the race Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo has been training up toward since he captured the final jewel of the Triple Crown on June 10. Trainer Jena Antonucci hasn’t run him since. It’s the race Bob Baffert is pulling the blinkers off of his Preakness-winning National Treasure. He is searching for his fourth victory in what is called the Midsummer Classic. It is considered the marquee race on the Spa’s schedule.
Yes, awaiting those two in the seven-horse field will be Kentucky Derby winner Mage, along with Belmont runner-up and erstwhile pre-scratch Derby favorite Forte, who is your 7-5 favorite here. You’ll also see Belmont third-place finisher Tapit Trice, who was seventh in the Derby. And Disarm, who was fourth.
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Will History Repeat at Travers?
Now that we’ve established that the Travers has legitimately the best 3-year-old field from a quality, what-are-you-doing-here pretender level here (well, we’ll give 12-1 longshot Scotland a mild pass, even though he lacks a graded-stakes win on the CV) standpoint, what awaits us from a racing/wagering standpoint?
If history is any indication, don’t expect any of the Triple Crown race winners to add the Travers to their resumes. Xpressbet.com analyst and racing historian Jon White noted that in 1918, 1982 and 2017—the only three times the Travers sent that year’s Triple Crown race winners from the starting gate—none of them won.
The last time this happened, in 2017, Baffert’s West Coast—who did not enter any of the Triple Crown events—beat Belmont winner Tapwrit (fourth), Preakness winner Cloud Computing (eighth) and Derby winner Always Dreaming (ninth). He paid $14.20 on a $2 wager.
This would seem to bode well for Forte, your reigning 2-year-old champion, who is 3-for-4 as a 3-year-old. That includes his nose victory over wise-guy choice Saudi Crown in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy last month, the race considered the Travers prep. Trainer Todd Pletcher put blinkers on the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to keep him focused. He stayed focused in the Jim Dandy.
Aside from the fact Forte, who is 7-for-8 in his career, is the most talented horse in the field, there’s a latent favorite factor. The last three Travers winners: Epicenter (even-money), Essential Quality (2-5) and Tiz the Law (1-2) were all favorites. Go back to 2019 and you find 4.40-1 third choice Code of Honor. Only when you get to 2018 with 7.10-1 third-choice Catholic Boy and 2017 with the aforementioned 6-10-1 West Coast do you find recent value.
Speed Kills
Then, there’s that simple and pesky speed factor. Forte carries in the best Beyer Speed Figure of any horse in the field not named Mage. Both clocked 105 Beyers. Forte’s came in his Jim Dandy finish, while Mage was in his Derby win. Running another mid-100 Beyer Saturday should put him into the Saratoga winner’s circle.
“You’re never going to make up for not getting to run in the Kentucky Derby, but it would be some sort of a consolation prize to win the Travers against the three Classic winners,” Pletcher said.
Arcangelo Worth a Look
If you’re looking to spoil Pletcher’s consolation prize with a moderately priced choice, yes, you’ll have to swallow the history pill and go with—Arcangelo. At 5-1 on the morning-line, he offers value.
But wait. There’s more. With consistently climbing Beyers—culminating in his 102 for his Belmont victory—Arcangelo offers pace. With victories in his last three starts, he offers form. Jockey Javier Castellano passed up Mage. He is saddling Arcangelo, who is 3-for-3 with him on his back. Castellano owns six Travers victories, the last coming aboard Catholic Boy five years ago.
And with Arrogate, who turned in the greatest Travers performance in the 153-year history of this event with his 13 ½-length demolition of the 2016 field, as his sire, he offers pedigree. He also offers a shot at becoming the 31st colt to pull off the Belmont-Travers double and the first to train up to it without a race since Birdstone in 2004.
“This horse has had most of his career spaced out with a lot of time,” said Antonucci, the first female trainer to condition a Triple Crown winner. “We just found that it’s given him the breathing room he needed to mature, grow up, fill in and fill out.”
Those are two good choices to fill out your tickets with.
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