Let it never be said that the College Football Gridiron Guide isn’t willing to return to the wagering well when the opportunity presents itself. Even with a dangerous, schizophrenic team as the UCLA Bruins traditionally are for bettors. The only thing you know about UCLA, which is 6-4 straight-up, 4-6 against the spread and 4-6 to the Under in its last 10 games, is that you don’t know what the Bruins will do next.
You do know what the USC Trojans will do next, which is score points. But they will also give up points in waves.
That said, let it never be said that the Guide doesn’t see opportunities in games that should be rated PG-13 from a viewing standpoint. Maybe you want to “Jump Around” with the drunken students at the Wisconsin Badgers’ Camp Randall Stadium, but after finding that wagering opportunity, the Guide prefers to “Run for Your Life” in another viewing direction.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 9-10.
Irish Eyes Smile Again
Wonder why a USC team that is undefeated, averaging nearly 52 points per game and sporting an incandescent talent in reigning Heisman Trophy winner QB Caleb Williams (1,822 yards, 28 total TDs) is a road underdog? To paraphrase the late Dean Vernon Wormer from Animal House, bad rushing defense, a soft front-seven and poor tackling from line to secondary is no way to come into South Bend to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
But here we are, with a USC defense that allowed 82 points and 1,070 yards the last two weeks to the Colorado Buffaloes and Arizona Wildcats. The Trojans are as abysmal on defense, allowing 157 yards a game on the ground—as they are awesome on offense (a No. 4 nationally 527 yards a game). USC needed triple-overtime to finally put away a mediocre Arizona team last week, surrendering 506 yards and missing 15 tackles. Now, that bend-and-often-break-into-pieces defense comes into South Bend, where a feral, cranky Notre Dame Fighting Irish team that just got beat for the second time in three weeks (33-20 to the Louisville Cardinals) awaits.
The Irish average 162.7 yards rushing per game and RB Audric Estime—who is third in the nation with 692 yards and seven TDs—has forced 37 missed tackles. He averages 4.37 yards after contact. Just what the Trojans don’t need. Notre Dame averages 34.1 points a game and it has the 15th-best scoring defense in the nation. We’ll put aside the fact Notre Dame has played every week since Week 0, focus on the Irish’ 4-1 ATS record against USC in the last five meetings and say “Thank you sir, may we have another.”
Best Bet: Notre Dame -2.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC or fuboTV
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Beavers Extract More Revenge
If you need any proof that the Pac-12 is going out on its competitive shield, the UCLA Bruins’ last three weeks should provide it. This is the third consecutive ranked opponent the Bruins have faced: following a 14-7 loss to the Utah Utes and last week’s 25-17 dismissal of the Washington State Cougars.
Thus is life in what is the best conference in the country this year and there isn’t a lot separating the Bruins and the Oregon State Beavers. Both teams surrender less than 20 points a game (UCLA 12.2, Oregon State 19.7). They also feature dual-threat QBs in UCLA’s Dante Moore and Oregon State’s D.J. Uiagalelei. Both feature underrated defenses. Speaking of which, UCLA’s usually maligned defense is ranked third in the country against the run (64.6 yards a game). That will be a true challenge against an Oregon State rushing attack that averages 205 yards a game.
But even though Washington State turned aside the Beavers in the de-facto Pac-2 Championship a couple weeks ago, there is a fundamental difference between beating Washington State at home and beating the Beavers in Corvallis. Oregon State has allowed only six sacks all season, is 6-0 ATS playing winning teams at home over the last three seasons and 11-1 ATS playing at home over that same span. There is a comfort level here and the Beavers are “dam” happy to claim another pelt at home.
Best Bet: Oregon St -3.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, FOX or fuboTV
Don’t Badger Yourself Too Hard With This One
We’ll get this out of the way right now. The Guide won’t be watching the Iowa Hawkeyes vs. the Wisconsin Badgers. The Guide advises you don’t watch this one either. Unless you either have a diploma from Iowa or Wisconsin on your wall. Or you have a masochistic streak that mandates watching two sleep-inducing teams struggle for Big 10 West supremacy.
Yes, Iowa and its nation-worst 249.2-yards-per-game offense and Wisconsin and its tiresome offense are the two best teams in that division. That explains why Pac-12 defectors Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA can’t get in here fast enough. Iowa does have one of the nation’s best defenses (16.3 points). The Hawkeyes can’t score enough to keep up with anyone, especially with backup QB Deacon Hill at the controls. He was 6 of 21 for 110 yards in a road win at Purdue last week. This version of the Badgers’ grain-thresher running game features RB Braelon Allen, who is averaging 6.5 yards-per-carry to go with seven TDs.
Basically, Wisconsin has no business giving 10 points to anyone—even at Camp Randall. But even with QB Tanner Mordecai barely throwing for 200 yards a game, the Badgers have enough to win this game. Especially since the home team is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS since 2017. That said, the Under is 6-3-1 over the last 10 here. You could swallow hard and take Iowa and the points. But why would you do that to yourself? Follow the Guide, take the Under here. Then grab your popcorn and remote and find a game that won’t have you asking “Why am I watching this?”
Best Bet: Under-36.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, FOX or fuboTV
