For a true fan, baseball’s off season is often more entertaining than when the teams are actually playing. And this year, there’s even more interest because of one name: Ohtani.
Yes, the Los Angeles Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani was up for grabs after his one-year deal with the Angels expired at the end of last season and he was the most talked-about free agent of the off season. While there were many clubs interested in this baseball phenomenon, there really was only one place he was going to land.
Yes, the two New York teams sniffed around. The San Francisco Giants were interested. The world champion Texas Rangers hung in there until nearly the end. Surprisingly, Toronto Blue Jays made a huge push. When push came to shove, it was the Los Angeles Dodgers that won the prize. They were the -140 favorite at Bet365 for most of the offseason.
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Ohtani Sought Winning Team
Ohtani has expressed a desire to play on a winning team. The Angels never made the playoffs in his six seasons there. The Dodgers have won the National League western division crown in nine of the last 10 years. And with the international exposure the Dodgers already have, there was no other logical choice.
But winning the prize meant paying Ohtani $700 million over 10 years, exceeding the entire payrolls of at least eight major league teams. The 30-year-old pitcher/hitter signed the most lucrative contract in the history of baseball, by far. Many baseball experts decried the contract, saying it would upset the balance of the baseball pay structure, but when you can sign a player who has a legitimate chance to win the MVP and the Cy Young in the same season, that’s something special. While Ohtani won’t pitch for the Dodgers this year because of shoulder surgery he had at the end of the season—he will pitch in ‘25—he is the reigning American League MVP because of his bat not his pitching.
Because Ohtani has agreed to deferred payments of his contract—he’ll “only” receive $2 million a year over the first 10 years and then $68 million a year over the next 10—the Dodgers can go out and still participate in the free agent or trade market knowing that they won’t destroy their payroll and have to pay a huge luxury tax, which is the baseball system rather than a salary cap.
Dodgers Jump to World Series Favorites
So what does this mean for bettors. Clearly, the Dodgers will be the overwhelming favorites to win all levels of the playoffs. That includes the World Series, particularly if they can get a couple of strong starting pitchers. That was their Achilles heel last year. And when you add Ohtani to a lineup that includes Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and Will Smith, it’s a modern Murderer’s Row.
But baseball being baseball, you can’t count your chickens before they hatch. Ohtani has had some injury problems the last three years. After playing in 135, 157 and 158 games in his first three seasons, he’s only played in 46, 106 and 114 in his next three. If he has had a second Tommy John surgery as has been reported—Ohtani’s management has been secretive about his ailments—that could be a problem. Not many pitchers return to their previous form after having two TJ issues.
So be careful about how you value the Dodgers this year. They have the shortest odds of becoming World Series champions at +450. But with the team winning at least 100 games over the past two seasons and never advancing beyond the first round, can you really trust them?
How about a wager on Ohtani as the MVP? He has the shortest odds at Caesars at +450. Shop around, though, because some books put him as high as +1000.
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