Before we talk about two of the three Kentucky Derby preps this weekend: the Florida Derby from Gulfstream Park and the Arkansas Derby from Oaklawn Park, let’s dispense with Saturday’s third prep, the UAE Derby from Meydan Racecourse in Dubai.
The UAE Derby hasn’t sent a runner to the Derby board in, well, ever. The one horse to watch is Saudi Derby winner Forever Young, who figures to like the 1 3/16-mile UAE Derby more than he preferred the one-turn mile of the Saudi Derby. He won that race on the Saudi Cup undercard by a head, but his time of 1:36.17 for 1,600 meters destroyed the track record by more than a second and a half.
Double Derbies
Now that we’ve disposed of our due diligence, let’s return back to the U.S. for two races that figure to vastly impact what happens at Churchill Downs the first Saturday of May. The Grade 1 Florida Derby and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby both offer 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points to the top five finishers. More importantly, both races have a nice history of playing kingmaker to Triple Crown contenders.
Since 1953, the Florida Derby has sent the most alums to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle: 25. That includes six this century: Monarchos (2001), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016) and Always Dreaming (2017). In addition, 2019 winner Maximum Security crossed the Churchill Downs wire first, but was disqualified for interference.
It’s a race to have on the resume for Derby or Triple Crown race contenders. So who warrants attention in this year’s field?
Start with 8-5 morning-line favorite Fierceness. Now, starting with him means remembering his 6 ¼-length boat-race in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and his maiden-breaking 11 ½-length debut score at Saratoga. It means following a betting trend where 12 of the last 14 winners have gone off at 5.40-1 or less odds. It means sticking with seven-time Florida Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher and ace jockey John Velazquez, who has five wins, two seconds, two thirds and a fourth in his last 10 Florida Derby starts.
It also means forgetting Fierceness’ other two races in his four-race career: a loss in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes as the 1-5 favorite and a horrific 20 ¼-length loss in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes as the 1-2 favorite.
The other two to watch are Conquest Warrior (3-1) and Holy Bull winner Hades (7-2). Both fit the wagering trend and both come in off last-out victories at Gulfstream, another historic trend. The last 11 Florida Derby winners came in off a victory in their previous race.
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Arkansas Assassin
Now, on to the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby. This century, it’s produced Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (2015), along with 2016 Belmont Stakes winner Creator, 2007 Preakness winner and Horse of the Year Curlin, 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex and 2004 Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones. Last year’s Arkansas Derby winner, Angel of Empire, finished third in the Derby.
This year’s 10-horse field features three horses worth watching and wagering on, starting with 8-5 morning-line favorite Muth. The California shipper and runner-up to Fierceness in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is ineligible for Derby points, courtesy of suspended trainer Bob Baffert, who has won this race four times. Baffert remains on Churchill Downs’ blacklist after Medina Spirit’s disqualification from the 2021 Derby.
Muth already won a two-turn race, the American Pharoah Stakes last fall and his pace-pressing style carried him to an easy victory in the seven-furlong San Vicente at Santa Anita in January. That running style could be key here, given a field heavy in stalkers and closers.
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Oaklawn Favorite
Already a Grade 1 winner for his score in last fall’s Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct, Timberlake (9-5) opened his 3-year-old campaign winning the Grade 2 Rebel—Oaklawn’s prep for the Arkansas Derby—as the 4-5 favorite. A victory here would not only make trainer Brad Cox the first conditioner to win three consecutive Arkansas Derbies, but stamp Timberlake as one of the favorites for Derby 150. Flavien Prat, who captured last weekend’s Louisiana Derby aboard Catching Freedom, hopes to catch history one state to the north this week.
Waiting for both is Mystik Dan (5-2), who captured the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn by eight lengths. His 110 Equibase Speed Figure is the fastest in this field, but he hasn’t run since that February 3 score, which came on a sloppy, sealed track. The weather forecast in Hot Springs, Arkansas for Saturday is clear and dry. He needs at worst a third—and more likely, a second—to guarantee a spot in the gate.
Muth, Timberlake and Mystik Dan are the only three horses carrying single-digit odds. Everyone else is 15-1 or greater.
