It’s not the end of the Kentucky Derby trail for Derby 150. But you can see the end from here.
Yes, there is one more Derby prep race next week: the Lexington Stakes from Keeneland which opens this weekend. But that’s merely a customary afterthought when it comes to serious Derby contenders. Consider it a last-chance dance for those horses on the cusp of a spot in the 20-horse Run for the Roses, which—if they were serious—wouldn’t need a 20-10-6-4-2 points race.
That’s because they’d be in one of this week’s trio of Derby preps: the Grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes from Keeneland, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and the Grade 2 Wood Memorial from Aqueduct, which offer 100-50-25-15-10 points to its top-five finishers. All three claim a blue-chip pedigree when it comes to bluegrass contenders the first Saturday in May.
But like all Derby preps, they’re not created equal this year, despite the points.
Bluegrass Stakes
Whirlaway, Northern Dancer, Riva Ridge, Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Unbridled, Thunder Gulch. You’re looking at some of the 20th century’s greatest thoroughbreds. At the same time, you’re also looking at seven of the 23 Bluegrass Stakes alums who have won the Derby. The last to do it was Street Sense in 2007.
This year’s Bluegrass is one of the most competitive preps on the Derby trail, an 11-horse field going 1 1/8 miles. It’s the star of Saturday’s preps for good reason. Two of them, actually: morning-line favorite Sierra Leone (2-1) and second-choice Dornoch (3-1).
When last we saw Sierra Leone, the $2.3 million purchase and Gun Runner progeny handled pace-setter Track Phantom at February’s Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds. That was his second win in three starts and it came against one of the best Derby prep fields of the campaign. What could hurt this closer’s chances is a modest expected pace in the field, but with 55 points already banked, Sierra Leone’s virtually guaranteed a spot in Derby 150.
The other thing that could hurt his chances is Dornoch, who accounted for the only blemish on Sierra Leone’s record. That came in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct last December, when Dornoch nipped Sierra Leone by a head. A full brother to last year’s Derby champion, Mage, Dornoch won a weak Fountain of Youth field last month at Gulfstream, besting four less-than-stellar competitors by 1 ¾ lengths. He has the early pace to contend on a track he’s already won on via a maiden-breaking win last October. And he has three-time Blue Grass winner Luis Saez in the irons.
Should you go deeper on the board, there’s 7-2 Just a Touch. The Brad Cox trainee comes in off a second to Wood Memorial favorite Deterministic in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct last month. The son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, Just a Touch won his debut, a six-furlong sprint in the Fair Grounds slop prior to his Gotham Stakes runner-up. His pace-pressing style figures to keep Dornoch honest.
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Santa Anita Derby
The West Coast’s premier prep has sent the likes of Swaps, Majestic Prince, Affirmed, Winning Colors, Sunday Silence, I’ll Have Another, California Chrome and Justify from the Santa Anita Park winner’s circle to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle. In addition, Santa Anita Derby alums such as Point Given, Authentic and A.P. Indy have become champions.
Naturally, as many 3-year-old events go, especially on the West Coast, this race has become synonymous with Bob Baffert. The Hall of Fame trainer has won this event a record eight times, the last time with Roadster (2019).
This time, he brings in two candidates: the 8-5 morning-line favorite in Imagination and Wynstock (8-1). Imagination hasn’t finished worse than second in five races (2-3-0), justifying his $1.05 million price tag and favorite status. The Into Mischief progeny comes in off a victory in the prep for this race—the Grade 2 San Felipe a month ago. His 96 Beyer Speed Figure from that score is the best in this eight-horse field.
Being trained by Baffert means Imagination isn’t eligible for Derby points, due to the trainer’s suspension by Churchill Downs. That likely leaves matters to the Phil D’Amato-trained Stronghold, the 5-2 second choice. His claim to contender status in this race comes from his breakout victory in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in New Mexico in February. That followed runner-up finishes in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity (to Wynstock) and the Grade 3 Bob Hope at Del Mar lats November.
Stronghold and his 25 points needs at least a third-place finish and likely a second to guarantee a spot in the Derby field.
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Wood Memorial
Gallant Fox, Omaha, Count Fleet, Assault, Secretariat, Seattle Slew. You’re looking at six of the 13 U.S. Triple Crown winners who all ran the Wood Memorial. You’re also looking at a race that has seen better days when it comes to sending alums to Derby glory. Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 was the last Wood Memorial alum to win the Derby
That record of futility may not end this year, but something else will—either the winning streak of Deterministic or Tuscan Sky. Both colts enter the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial 2-for-2. Each has their pros and cons.
Deterministic has a stakes win on his CV, the one-turn mile Gotham. Only one horse since 2010 (the 72-1 burp-in-the-universe Bourbonic in 2021) has won the Wood without stakes experience. He won his sprint debut at Saratoga last summer. Now, trainer Christophe Clement sends the son of Liam’s Map around two turns for the first time in a test that will determine whether he is a classic-distance contender or a middle-distance one.
Tuscan Sky carries the pedigree of 2018 Wood winner and 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Vino Rosso. He has seven-time Wood winner Todd Pletcher pulling the training strings. But Tuscan Sky’s lack of graded experience and his pace-pressing status doesn’t play well historically. His victories came at six furlongs on a sloppy Aqueduct track and at 1 1/16 miles against a weak allowance/optional claimer field at Fair Grounds in February.
From a history standpoint in the Wood, stalkers and closers have fared better recently. Closers such as Frosted, Bourbonic, Mo Donegal and Lord Miles have won since 2015.
