The Cleveland Browns were tied for the worst record in the NFL last season at 3-14, but secured the #1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. When BetMGM released win totals for the 2025 season, the Browns were at the bottom of their list again with 4.5 Over/Under.
Four other teams find themselves at the bottom, including the New Orleans Saints (5.5 O/U), New York Giants (5.5 O/U), New York Jets (5.5 O/U), and Tennessee Titans (5.5 O/U).
When bookmakers release win totals for the new NFL season, you find the best value at the bottom. When a team is only projected to win four or five games, you only need to win one or two fluke games or upsets to put yourself into position to hit your Over wager.
There are typically one or two teams from the bottom of the list every season that surprise everyone. Last year, three unexpected teams found tremendous success, including the Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders, and Denver Broncos. Not only did they surpass their win totals, but all three squads qualified for the playoffs.
It’s doubtful that any of the teams at the bottom of this year’s list can replicate the same success as last season’s Vikings, Commanders, and Broncos. Then again, we don’t need this year’s bottom feeders to win 10 or more games. We only need them to steal a win or two in their division and catch a few lucky bounces.
And head over to BetMGM. You can choose a variety of Over/Under results for the teams of your choice. Of course, the odds vary widely, so if you have a reason to believe in one side or another, you might want to go beyond the odds mentioned here.
Who Wants to Play QB for the Browns?
Win Total: 4.5 O/U
2024 Record: 3-14
Super Bowl Odds: +30000
Division Odds: +3300
With Deshaun Watson still recovering from a torn Achilles injury, the quarterback situation is in flux heading into training camp. Veterans Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett have the inside track ahead of rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. However, only Flacco has avoided injuries this summer. The Browns scrambled and added Tyler Huntley as their fifth quarterback and insurance policy.
The Browns will lean on their defense to make them competitive in the rough and tumble AFC North, which is called the Smashmouth Division for a reason. You can never count out the Browns late in the season against a divisional rival who must face them in front of the Dawg Pound. Those NFC North divisional tilts are like a back-alley brawl, which makes the Browns a live dog and a favorite among sharp bettors to win more than 4.5 games at -175. The Under comes in at +145.
Will the Saints Tank for Arch Manning?
Win Total: 5.5 O/U
2024 Record: 5-12
Super Bowl Odds: +30000
Division Odds: +1500
The Saints hired Kellen Moore as their new head coach. Moore is fresh off a Super Bowl victory as the offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Derek Carr retired in the offseason, so incoming rookie Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler will compete for the starting QB job. The Saints surprised insiders when they selected Slough in the second round as the third QB off the draft board. Rattler started six games last season, replacing an injured Carr, so he’s the favorite to win the job if Moore doesn’t want to rely on a rookie to install their new playbook.
There are plenty of whispers and rumors that indicate the Saints will tank this season for a shot at winning the Arch Manning sweepstakes. The nephew of Peyton Manning and Eli Manning grew up in New Orleans and could end up playing for his hometown team. His grandfather and namesake, Archie Manning, was a beloved quarterback during his decade-long tenure with the Saints. If you’re on the tank train, then backing the Under 5.5 wins makes sense at -155.
Giants: Moving Forward or More Meadowlands Melodrama?
Win Total: 5.5 O/U
2024 Record: 3-14
Super Bowl Odds: +20000
Division Odds: +2800
The Giants took a ton of guff last season after they let Saquon Barkley walk in free agency. Not only did Barkley thrive with a hated division rival, but he also played a pivotal role in helping the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl. Instead of paying Barkley, the Giants made a regretful decision by rewarding quarterback Daniel Jones with an undeserved contract extension.
The Giants finally severed ties with Jones and ended their tumultuous relationship. Eager to make a fresh start in 2025, the Giants drafted Jaxson Dart with the #25 pick. They also added veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to the roster. It’s unknown if head coach Brian Daboll will tap a veteran to begin the season as their signal caller or gamble on Dart with a baptism by fire.
The Giants face a top-heavy NFC East against the defending champion Eagles (11.5 O +105/U -125) and the upstart Commanders (9.5 O -125/U +105). The Cowboys (7.5 O -135/U +110) are a hot mess with Jerry Jones’ latest attempt at self-sabotage after Micah Parsons requested a trade. If the Eagles suffer from a Super Bowl hangover and the Cowboys spin out of control, the Giants could steal a divisional game or two. However, backing them to win six or more games hinges upon the development of Dart or the revitalization of Winston. I’ll take the Under at –130. The Over is +110.
Aaron Glenn Era Begins for the New York Jets
Win Total: 5.5 O/U
2024 Record: 5-12
Super Bowl Odds: +20000
Division Odds: +1800
Another year, another nightmare season for the LOL Jets. Their impulsive billionaire owner fired head coach Robert Saleh to salvage the season, but the miscalculation only added more fuel to the dumpster fire. The Aaron Rodgers experiment at quarterback failed even after the Jets brought in his best friends at wide receiver. The addition of Rodgers’ former teammates from the Green Bay Packers irked the locker room, and the team checked out completely in the second half of the season.
Enter Aaron Glenn. The former defensive star for the Jets takes over as head coach after several successful seasons as the defensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions. Glenn wants to return to basics with a hard-nosed defense and old-school running game.
The biggest question mark for the Jets is Justin Fields at quarterback. Fields only needs to display average competence for the Jets to have a great shot at winning six or more games.
Gang Green’s most loyal fans enter every preseason with hope and optimism, so betting the Jets to exceed 5.5 (+120) wins will be a popular prop bet. However, tormented and jaded Jets fans will be hammering the Under (-145) during Glenn’s rookie campaign. If the Jets are going to suck once again, you might as well make some money off another miserable season!
Titans Excited for Cam Ward
Win Total: 5.5 O/U
2024 Record: 3-14
Super Bowl Odds: +20000
Division Odds: +775
Brian Callahan posted a 3-14 record during his rookie debut as the head coach of the Titans last season. They dropped their last six games of the season and locked up the #1 pick in the draft. They didn’t trade away the top pick and gambled that Miami’s Cam Ward would become their next franchise quarterback.
With Will Levis expected to miss the year due to season-ending shoulder surgery, all signs point toward Ward as the Week 1 starter. At least the team added savvy veteran wide receivers in Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett to support Ward.
The Houston Texans (9.5 O -185/U +150) are expected to win the soft AFC South again. The Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars both have a win total of 7.5 O/U, but oddsmakers lack faith that either squad will post a winning season.
The Titans will ride or die with Ward’s success. It’s a fine line between feast and famine when it comes to starting rookie quarterbacks. Will the Titans experience a situation like the Carolina Panthers with Bryce Young, or will Ward turn into the next C.J. Stroud for the Texans?
If you’re optimistic, backing the Titans to win more than 5.5 (-150) games seems logical. If you’re a pessimist and think Ward is overrated, then the Titans winning five or fewer games (+125) seems like the wise move.
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