The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles began the NFL preseason at the top of BetMGM‘s win totals board with an Over/Under of 11.5. Last year’s Super Bowl runner-up, the Kansas City Chiefs, are also slated at 11.5 O/U along with the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
So, how many of those four teams win 12 or more games, and which ones will win 11 or fewer?
Super Bowl Hangover Looms in Philly
Win Total: 11.5 O/U
2024 Record: 14-3
Super Bowl Odds: +700
Division Odds: -145
It’s rare to win the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons in the modern era, and it has only happened once in the last two decades with the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57 and 58. With a historical trend not on their side, the Eagles are still co-favorites to win Super Bowl 60 with the Ravens and the Bills at +700 odds.
The Eagles face an uphill battle fending off the proverbial Super Bowl hangover. They also play the fourth-hardest schedule in 2025 with 11 games against last year’s playoff teams.
Defensive genius Vic Fangio remains on staff as defensive coordinator, but the Eagles said goodbye to former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who filled a head coaching vacancy with the New Orleans Saints. The NFL’s rules committee didn’t ban the “tush push” this offseason, so Jalen Hurts still has that unstoppable play in his arsenal.
Chiefs Seek Fourth Championship in Seven Seasons
Win Total: 11.5 O/U
2024 Record: 15-2
Super Bowl Odds: +800
Division Odds: -118
In the last six seasons, the Chiefs advanced to the Super Bowl five times and won three of them. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes know that posting the best record in the regular season and securing home-field advantage in the playoffs is not as crucial as staying healthy and peaking in January.
The Chiefs surprised a lot of insiders with 15 victories last season, but oddsmakers set a great win total of 11.5 O/Uthis season in a top-heavy AFC West.
The NFL scheduled the Chiefs to kick off the season with an international game in Sao Paulo, Brazil, against the Los Angeles Chargers. Those overseas games can be wonky, especially with the condition of the field, which makes them tough to predict.
The Chiefs face the 11th-hardest schedule this season, including 10 games against teams that qualified for the playoffs last season. They play the Bills and Denver Broncos on the road, but they have favorable away games against five non-divisional teams with a losing record.
Three AFC West teams qualified for the playoffs last year. The Chiefs head into this season with a total of 11.5 O/U, and the Broncos and Chargers are both sitting at 10.5 O/U. The Las Vegas Raiders (6.5 O/U) under new head coach Pete Carroll should play better than last year’s 4-13 team, but they’re still expected to finish in last place in the division.
Another Hopeful Season for Bills Mafia
Win Total: 11.5 O/U
2024 Record: 13-4
Super Bowl Odds: +700
Division Odds: -325
If you’re a member of the Bills Mafia, you enter every August with the same mentality: this will be the year the Bills win their first Super Bowl!
The Bills have been Super Bowl contenders ever since Josh Allen arrived, but they’ve yet to win the AFC Championship and return to the Super Bowl in over 30 years. Mahomes and the Chiefs have been their kryptonite, with the Bills getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Chiefs four times in the last five postseasons.
The Bills are the best team in a lackluster AFC East, which is why they’re a huge favorite to win another division title at -325 odds. The New England Patriots (8.5 O/U) and New York Jets have new head coaches with Mike Vrabel and Aaron Glenn (5.5 O/U), respectively. The Miami Dolphins (7.5 O/U) know their future is tethered to the health of Tua Tagovailoa and the sanity of Tyreek Hill.
The Bills face a much softer schedule this season and ranked ninth easiest overall. They play only six playoff squads from last year. They also host the Chiefs, Bengals, and Eagles in the second half of the season.
Everyone Loves the Ravens
Win Total: 11.5 O/U
2024 Record: 12-5
Super Bowl Odds: +700
Division Odds: -160
The Ravens are a popular pick to win the Super Bowl at +700 odds. They seek to avenge a two-point loss against the Bills in the AFC divisional round.
The Ravens are a favorite to win 12 or more games once again this season. Since Lamar Jackson’s rookie season in 2018, the Ravens have won 12 or more games three times, including each of the last two seasons. They only won fewer than 10 games just once in 2021, when they missed the playoffs at 8-9.
The Ravens play the ninth-hardest schedule in 2025. They square off against eight of last season’s playoff teams, including five in their first six games with the Bills, Lions, Chiefs, Houston Texans, and L.A. Rams. They have a much easier non-divisional schedule in the second half of the season.
The Ravens are a -160 favorite to win a third consecutive AFC North crown. Joe Burrow is finally healthy, but the Cincinnati Bengals (9.5 O/U) have a shoddy defense once again, so they’ll have to win a lot of shootouts this season. If the Cleveland Browns (4.5 O/U) continue to suck and if the Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5 O/U) post a rare losing season under Mike Tomlin, then the Ravens should easily win 12 or more games.
Lions on Prowl After Gut-Wrenching Playoff Exit
Win Total: 10.5 O/U
2024 Record: 15-2
Super Bowl Odds: +1000
Division Odds: +145
The Lions won 15 games last season and secured the #1 seed in the NFC, but suffered a disappointing loss against the #6 Washington Commanders in the NFC divisional round.
The Lions will be challenged to win 11 plus games after they lost both of their insanely popular coordinators. Offensive guru Ben Johnson is coaching a divisional rival after he took the Chicago Bears (8.5 O/U) job, and former DC Aaron Glenn will attempt to revitalize the LOL Jets.
The Lions were decimated with cluster injuries on defense last year, so it can’t be as bad as last season, right? The offense is still dangerous, and even though Johnson isn’t their OC anymore, the Lions will still use his intricate playbook and aggressive philosophy.
Three NFC North teams secured postseason berths last season. Oddsmakers anticipate a tightly contested division this season. They listed the Lions with a win total of 10.5 O/U, but barely ahead of the Green Bay Packers (9.5 O/U), Minnesota Vikings (8.5 O/U), and the Bears (8.5 O/U). The Lions are the betting favorite to win a third-straight division title at +145 odds ahead of the Packers (+275), Vikings (+300), and Bears (+550).
Easy Schedule for the 49ers
Win Total: 10.5 O/U
2024 Record: 6-11
Super Bowl Odds: +2000
Division Odds: +165
The 49ers won only six games last season because they were pummeled with injuries, including All-Pro RB Christian McCaffery. If McCaffrey can stay healthy, they can easily win 11 or more games and return to the top of the NFC. The 49ers will face the easiest schedule this season, with only four playoff squads on the radar.
Robert Saleh returns to the 49ers as their defensive coordinator. He got a bad break last year with a midseason firing when the dysfunctional Jets made him their scapegoat. With Saleh back in the mix, expect their defense to step up.
The NFC West is always competitive, and this season’s win totals reflect that vibe with another tight race: 49ers (10.5 O/U), Rams (9.5 O/U), Seattle Seahawks (8.5 O/U), and Arizona Cardinals (8.5 O/U). We’re eying the 49ers to win the division and surpass their win total.
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