Aside from the wild outcomes that have wreaked havoc with the Gridiron Guru’s—and numerous other college football analysts’—prognosticating, the theme to the 2025 college football season is “Fire Your Coach.” The judges will also accept “Impatience” as a theme.
Either way, it’s been a bad year for college football coaches who fail to meet the increasingly lofty expectations of deep-pocketed boosters, nervous athletic directors, ADD-afflicted fans, and an unforgiving atmosphere created by all of the above. The recent firing of Auburn’s Hugh Freeze brings to a record 11 the number of FBS coaches relieved of their duties mid-season.
And money is no object in this equation. According to Front Office Sports, universities are on the hook for a combined $185 million in buyouts, led by former LSU Coach Brian Kelly’s $53 million farewell gift when he was ushered out the door in Baton Rouge.
Alas, there is a wagering element to this coaching carousel, courtesy of VSiN host Tim Murray. He said that teams are 7-2 ATS the week after firing their head coach.
If you’re curious about where that leads next, new interim head coach D.J. Durkin brings Auburn to Vanderbilt Saturday as 6.5-point underdogs. Wager accordingly.
Last week: 1-2. Season: 13-15 ATS.
BYU Finally Misses the Switch
There’s a trendy saying going around right now: “playing with your food.” It describes teams that play down to the level of their competition, take time to find their rhythm, then flip the proverbial switch and pull out games late.
In other words, it describes the BYU Cougars. Yes, the eighth-ranked Cougars are 8-0, but they play with their food more than just about any team in the country. They trailed Colorado, 14-3, before pulling out the W, needed to overcome a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to put away Arizona. They trailed Iowa State 24-10 in the first half and somehow got past archrival Utah after putting up 10 points in the first half.
This is not a sustainable recipe for success. And it’s less this week against a No. 9 Texas Tech Red Raiders team averaging 43.6 points a game (third nationally), 47.8 points per game at home, and 492 yards of offense (seventh). Texas Tech’s lowest margin of victory en route to its 8-1 record is 23 points, amassed last week against Kansas State. Its closest game was a four-point loss to Arizona State.
The Cougars have a respectable defense (27th in yards allowed and 15th in points allowed), but one not battle-tested against an offense—and defense—like this. As prolific as Texas Tech’s offense is, the Red Raiders are just as good defensively, boasting the No. 1-ranked rush defense (74 yards per game and 2.1 yards per carry) in the country.
This is BYU’s first visit to Lubbock since 1940, and ESPN’s “College GameDay” and a fired-up, sold-out-for-weeks crowd at Jones AT&T Stadium await, rooting on a team that has covered the last four times it’s been a double-digit favorite. The perils of playing with your food also await.
Best Bets: Texas Tech -10 or Over-52.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Texas A&M Avoids This Trap
One team that doesn’t play with its food is No. 3 Texas A&M. The 8-0 Aggies average 37.4 points per game, which is impressive enough on its face. But dive deeper and you find the Aggies averaging 45 points per game in three road victories—against LSU, Arkansas, and Notre Dame. Oh, and they are 3-0 SU in those games.
You don’t have to dive very deep to see the margin for error—or lack thereof—the Missouri Tigers face. They’re down to their third-string QB: freshman Matt Zollers, who was forced into service two weeks ago against Vanderbilt when starter Beau Pribula hurt his ankle. With Missouri on a bye last week, Zollers did get extra time to practice, but do not expect him to sustain a Missouri offense that is top-15 in four categories, but hasn’t scored more than 24 points in its last three games.
The Aggies are 3-1 ATS in their last four games, illustrating they’re finding a rhythm on both sides of the ball. They’ve won the last two editions of this by an average of 26 points per game. Even with the possibilities of this being a trap game, we’re not seeing anything here preventing Texas A&M from remaining one of the few undefeated teams in the country.
That said, this is a line you want to get in on as early as possible, because the spread opened at Texas A&M -4.5 and jumped almost immediately. It currently rests on the key number of 7, and more movement toward Missouri weakens the value here.
Best Bet: Texas A&M -7 (-110 at BetMGM)
Wasn’t FSU-Clemson Supposed to be a Must-See?
Getting back to coaching hot seats, this is where we find Florida State’s Mike Norvell, who is one of the first two names mentioned—along with Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell—when the question: “Who’s the next coach to be fired?” is asked.
Norvell finds himself mulling over how to invest his $58.6 million buyout because the Seminoles are 4-4 after losses to Stanford, Pitt, Miami, and Virginia. We’ll give Florida State the latter two, but Stanford? Pitt? That makes their season-opening victory over Alabama look like it happened sometime in the last century.
And yet, Norvell and FSU are in better current shape than Dabo Swinney and Clemson. The Tigers—preseason College Football Playoff contenders—are 3-5 and are off anyone’s radar of relevance. Their ACC losses came to Georgia Tech, Syracuse, SMU, and last week’s 46-45 OT heartbreaker to Duke. Clemson was favored in each and failed to cover in each, leading to its 2-6 ATS record this year.
So what do we find this week in terms of what was once the ACC Game of the Year? Clemson as a 2.5-point favorite. Do not adjust your eyes, the Tigers, 2-6 ATS record, 3-5 SU record, terrible run offense, C to C-minus defense, and all, are somehow favored.
Clemson has lost six consecutive games at home to Power Four opponents, so Death Valley isn’t exactly playing to its moniker. We, however, aren’t going to ask any more questions or probe this any deeper.
Best Bet: Florida State +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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