In 2023, the NBA instituted a new rule to combat load management among its star players. To be eligible for major awards, including Most Valuable Player, players must appear in a minimum of 65 games. For the first time since its inception, this 65-game rule is threatening the outcome of the MVP race. Heading into the final quarter of the season, the top two betting favorites could find themselves ineligible.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP from the Oklahoma City Thunder, recently missed nine games with an abdominal strain. He is the current betting favorite at BetMGM at -250 odds to win back-to-back MVP awards. There’s no guarantee he plays enough games to maintain his eligibility after missing 12 total games this season.
Nikola Jokic, a three-time MVP from the Denver Nuggets, missed 16 games with a hyperextended left knee. Jokic is the second favorite on the awards board at +450 odds, yet he’s dangerously close to the exclusion threshold.
That opened the door for Cade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons. Listed as the third MVP favorite at +800 odds, Cunningham is the best-positioned candidate to win the MVP if the Thunder or Nuggets choose to rest their superstars down the stretch.
Back-to-Back SGA: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -250
Gilgeous-Alexander averages 31.8 points, 6.4 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game. Now in his eighth NBA season, he’s matching his best assist output with the second-most productive scoring average of his career. Only Luka Doncic from the Los Angeles Lakers scored more with 32.5 ppg.
The Thunder are the defending NBA champions and the consensus favorite to repeat at +150 odds. Their deep bench allows head coach Mark Daigneault more flexibility to manage his rotation conservatively in the closing weeks of the season. Why risk injuries to starters, particularly Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren?
The Thunder recently saw their overall lead in the Western Conference shrink to three games over the San Antonio Spurs. Home court advantage remains a priority, but they will face the second-toughest remaining schedule in the NBA, including games against the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, Lakers, and Nuggets.
Once the Thunder lock up the #1 seed, they will reduce the minutes of their starters and protect Gilgeous-Alexander. That’s why the next few weeks will be crucial.
Gilgeous-Alexander has a better cushion than Jokic. The Thunder play only three back-to-back games, with one in April. There’s also a gnarly stretch in late March with six games in 10 days. Even if Gilgeous-Alexander sits out one game in all remaining back-to-backs and rests the final weekend of the season, he can still meet the eligibility requirements for MVP consideration.
Team First, Joker Second: Nikola Jokic +450
Jokic is averaging a triple-double for a second consecutive season. He leads the NBA in both rebounding and assists, and ranks sixth in scoring. His advanced metrics are phenomenal (34.20 Player Efficiency Rating) and among the highest ever recorded.
Through his first 45 games, Jokic averages 28.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 10.5 assists per game. Now in his 11th NBA season, Jokic is posting the best assist average of his career and his second-highest scoring output.
Jokic finds himself in the most precarious situation among MVP contenders. He can only afford to miss one more game before losing MVP eligibility. He is a selfless player who believes in a team-first mentality, so he personally would sacrifice an individual award for a better chance to win another championship.
The Nuggets face four back-to-back situations in March. It seems most likely Jokic opts for rest on March 18 when the Nuggets host the Philadelphia 76ers in Denver before they fly to Memphis to play the Grizzlies the following night. It’s an ideal spot for a breather. If Jokic sits that game, then he has no other wiggle room the remainder of the season.
The optimal time to rest a starter is in the last week of the season if playoff seeding has been determined. Meanwhile, an intense scenario unfolds in the Western Conference. While the Spurs and Thunder slug it out for the top seed, the Nuggets are involved in a four-way rumble for the #3 seed with the Houston Rockets, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Lakers.
The Nuggets have shown their indifference in seeding in the past because they’re confident in their ability to defeat anyone in the postseason. Then again, the thin air of Colorado provides them with a unique edge. It might not matter to the Nuggets, but the mile-high altitude could negatively affect opposing teams both physically and psychologically.
The Nuggets have the hardest remaining schedule in the NBA, including three games versus the Spurs, two against the Thunder, and one more against the Lakers. It’s only a matter of time before Jokic bows out of the MVP race based on how the Nuggets treated seeding in previous seasons, their brutal upcoming schedule, and Jokic’s selfless nature.
Best Value Pick: Cade Cunningham +800
In Cunningham’s fifth season, the former #1 pick averaged 25.5 points, 9.8 assists, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game. Cunningham is second overall in assists, behind only Jokic, and ranked #12 in scoring. He averaged a career-high 26.1 ppg last season, but this is the second-most prolific scoring season.
Cunningham stayed healthy this season. He’s having a sensational year and is expected to earn MVP votes regardless of the eligibility of his peers. Traditional MVP voters tend to reward the best player on the best team in the league. Right now, the Pistons own the best record in the Eastern Conference and are within striking distance of the Thunder for the top overall record in the NBA this season. With the sixth-easiest remaining schedule, the Pistons have a chance to catch the Thunder.
This MVP race boils down to a two-man sprint between Cunningham and Gilgeous-Alexander if Jokic misses any more games. Cunningham offers the best value on the board. You can back him at +800 odds to win his first MVP.
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