After absorbing several Pac-12 programs, the Big Ten conference tournament has grown into a six-day festival with 18 basketball games. All 18 teams technically have a path to March Madness via the automatic bid, but those bubble teams or long shots must navigate a brutal field. Michigan is projected as a #1 seed in March Madness, while Illinois and Michigan State are projected as #2 seeds. Purdue and Nebraska are in a good spot to secure a #3 seed.
Michigan enters as the top seed and the clear team to beat. BetMGM lists Michigan as the favorite at -125 odds, followed by Illinois (+450), Michigan State (+625), and Purdue (+725).
Michigan (29-2) finished the regular season ranked #3 in the AP Top 25 and dominated the Big Ten with a 19-1 record, passing Indiana for most conference wins in a single season.
Purdue, the preseason #1 team, failed to live up to lofty expectations. They have a shot at redemption, along with an incentive for a deep run. Senior point guard Braden Smith is chasing Duke’s Bobby Hurley for the NCAA’s all-time assists record. Smith has 1,029 assists. Hurley set the mark with 1,076 in 1993.
Michigan (29-2, 19-1)
Big Ten Odds: -125
March Madness Odds: +325
Ranking: KenPom #2, Torvik #2
This is Dusty May’s second season at Michigan after leading FAU on a trip to the 2023 Final Four. Michigan is the second favorite to win the NCAA championship at +325 odds, only slightly behind Duke at +320.
As the #1 seed in the tournament, the Wolverines were awarded a double bye. They opened the season 14-0 before a stunning loss to Wisconsin in Ann Arbor. Michigan responded with an 11-game winning streak that ended against Duke, ranked #3 at the time. They concluded the season with four wins in a row, including impressive victories against Illinois and Michigan State.
Michigan has the best frontcourt in the nation with Yaxel Lendenborg (14.7 ppg, 7.2 rebounds), Morez Johnson (13.7 ppg, 7.4 rebounds), and Aday Mara (11.3 ppg, 6.9 rebounds). That trio anchors a defense ranked #2 in opponent FG percentage (38 percent), ranked #5 in blocked shots (4.9 per game), and ranked #15 in rebounding (40.4 per game). They also defend the 3-pointer with impunity, allowing only 29.6 percent per game.
Point guard Elliot Cadeau is an elite floor general. The North Carolina transfer averages 9.9 points and 5.5 assists per game while shooting 37.8 percent from 3-point range. Cadeau and the bench will have to step up with L.J. Carson out for the season with a torn ACL.
Michigan has the 10th-best offense in the NCAA, averaging 88.4 ppg and an effective FG rate of 58.7 percent. The juggernaut also has the fourth-best scoring margin in the nation at +19.
Michigan State (25-6, 15-5)
Big Ten Odds: +625
March Madness Odds: +4000
Ranking: KenPom #9, Torvik #10
The Spartans are +4000 odds to win the title, which is tenth on BetMGM’s futures board.
Michigan State earned a double bye as the #3 seed. They have a chance to avenge an earlier loss to Nebraska in the semifinals.
Michigan State finished the regular season ranked #8, but lost two games against rival Michigan. They also suffered road losses against unranked Minnesota and Wisconsin. Their most impressive wins were squeakers versus Illinois in overtime and at Purdue.
Jeremy Fears Jr. averages 15.5 points and a nation-leading 9.1 assists per game. He’s also ranked #4 with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 4.13.
Beyond Fears, Michigan State lacks household names, which is the kind of team that Tom Izzo loves. They rely on defense, rebounding, and toughness. Senior forward Jaxon Kohler is the epitome of a blue-collar work ethic, averaging 9.1 rebounds per game with 12 double-doubles this season.
Illinois (24-7, 15-5)
Big Ten Odds: +450
March Madness Odds: +1800
Ranking: KenPom #5, Torvik #6
With the #4 seed, Illinois earned a double bye. If chalk prevails, they have a potential heavyweight rematch against Michigan in the semifinals. The tournament is hosted in Chicago, which gives the Fighting Illini a slight edge despite the neutral site.
Illinois has an explosive offense that averages 88.4 ppg. They rely on a steady diet of 3-pointers, ranking #11 in both attempts (31.5) and made treys (11.0).
Super frosh Keaton Wagler leads the team in scoring with 17.9 points and 4.3 assists per game, while shooting 41 percent from 3-point range.
Fellow freshman David Mirkovic averages 13.2 ppg, and he’s shooting 37.6 percent from downtown. Meanwhile, Jake Davis knocks down nearly 41 percent of his treys as well.
Illinois loves to crash the glass, and they’re ranked #10 in the country in rebounding. Mirkovic leads the team with 7.2 rebounds per game.
Illinois had a bumpy February with a 4-4 record, losing three overtime games against Michigan State, Wisconsin, and UCLA. They were also thumped on their home court by Michigan. They ended the regular season ranked #9 overall.
Purdue (23-8, 13-7)
Big Ten Odds: +725
March Madness Odds: +5000
Ranking: KenPom #8, Torvik #8
Only a few seasons ago, Purdue suffered consecutive disappointing exits in March Madness when they were upset by #15 St. Peter’s in 2022 and were stunned by #16 FDU in 2023. They bounced back with a Final Four appearance in 2024, losing to UConn in the championship game. Purdue lost to Houston by two points in last year’s Sweet 16.
Although it is rare in the NIL era, Purdue has three seniors with plenty of experience: Braden Smith (14.9 ppg), Fletcher Loyer (13.6 ppg), and Trey Kaufman-Renn (13.4 ppg).
Loyer set a school record with 282 career 3-pointers. He’s shooting 41.9 percent from downtown (ranked #22 in the nation). Kaufman-Renn leads the team with 8.7 rebounds per game and has recorded 10 double-doubles.
Thanks to Loyer’s sniper skills, Purdue is ranked #12 in 3-point shooting (38.5 percent) and effective FG percentage (57.9 percent)
In Smith’s final season, the team is on a mission to put their beloved star in a position to break Hurley’s assist record. Smith is second in the nation in assists with 8.7 per game. He needs 48 assists to set a new NCAA record, so roughly five more games combined in the Big Ten tournament and March Madness, to make it happen. There’s a viable path if Purdue advances to the Big Ten championship game, but that would be their fourth game in four days.
Purdue tumbled to seventh place in the Big Ten standings, but they still secured a single bye as the #7 seed.
Nebraska (26-5, 15-5)
Big Ten Odds: +1100
March Madness Odds: +8000
Ranking: KenPom #12, Torvik #18
Despite missing last year’s March Madness with a 21-14 record, Nebraska won the inaugural College Basketball Crown (CBC) championship.
In Fred Hoiberg’s seventh season in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers took second place in the Big Ten, which was their best conference finish in over 30 years. They ended the regular season ranked #11 in the AP Top 25.
Nebraska secured a double bye as the #2 seed in the conference tournament. They could end up in the semifinals on Saturday against Michigan State, who they edged out by two points in early January. Nebraska lost a close game against Michigan and suffered losses against Illinois and Purdue.
Nebraska has a smothering perimeter defense, ranked #15 in the country, allowing only 65.7 ppg and ranked #14 in 3-point defense (29.8 percent).
Leading-scorer Pryce Sandfort (17.9 ppg) is shooting 40.15 percent from beyond the arc. Their top five snipers shoot at least 32 percent from deep. Nebraska is ranked #14 in the nation in 3-point attempts (29.8 per game).
Wisconsin (22-9, 14-6)
Big Ten Odds: +2500
March Madness Odds: +12500
Ranking: KenPom #23, Torvik #22
The Badgers secured a single bye as the #5 seed and could meet Illinois in the quarterfinals on Friday. They recently snuck into the Top 25 at #23.
Wisconsin made history by winning four road games in a row against ranked teams by defeating Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, and Illinois in overtime. Then again, they looked awful in a loss to Oregon a couple of weeks ago.
Senior guard Nick Boyd averages 20.1 ppg and ranked #30 in the nation in scoring. Seven-footer Nolan Winter hauls down 8.6 rebounds per game and has posted 12 double-doubles this season.
The Badgers rely on a barrage of 3-pointers to bury opponents. They’re ranked #6 in made treys (11.6 per game) and ranked #8 in attempts (31.9).
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