March Madness is finally here! And time to decide what upsets you’re going to pick in your bracket. While picking a #12 seed to upset the #5 seed is a popular bracket strategy, don’t overlook the value of a #11 knocking off a #6 seed. It happens more often than a #12 seed, and those teams are more likely to win multiple games, making them strong Cinderella candidates.
FIRST ROUND TOURNAMENT UPSETS (Since 1985)
#11 seed upsets #6 seed: 38.75% (62)
#12 seed upsets #5 seed: 35.63% (57)
#13 seed upsets #4 seed: 20.63% (33)
#14 seed upsets #3 seed: 14.38% (23)
#15 seed upsets #2 seed: 6.8% (11)
#16 seed upsets #1 seed: 1.25% (2)
Before filling out your bracket, keep those numbers in mind. Selecting a #15 or #16 seed in the Final Four might sound like fun, but those long shots rarely survive the opening round, let alone reach the Sweet 16. If you’re feeling frisky enough to pick a #15 seed, show some restraint and limit it to a Round of 64 upset.
Cinderellas from the #11 Seed
If you want to hunt for a Cinderella, the #11 seed is a perfect spot to start. The #11 seed wins the opening round game 38.75 percent of the time. Since 2021, they are 10-10 overall against the #6 seed.
Out of the 62 teams that upset a #6 seed, at least 27 went on to win their next game and reach the Sweet 16 as a bracket buster. Ten of those #11 seeds remained hot and advanced to the Elite 8 as a bracket buster.
Six #11 seeds punched their ticket to the Final Four. The most memorable runs came from George Mason (2006), VCU (2011), Loyola Chicago (2018), UCLA (2021), and N.C. State (2024). Unfortunately, their Cinderella stories ended in the Final Four because a #11 seed has never reached the national championship game.
#11 Seeds: South Florida, VCU, Miami Ohio
#4 Louisville (23-10) finished sixth in the ACC this season. They went 7-13 ATS in their last 20 games, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight. Louisville opened as a -5.5 favorite against #11 South Florida (25-8), the American Conference champions who are riding an 11-game win streak. South Florida is 18-14 ATS overall but covered eight out of their last 10 games.
Oddsmakers pegged North Carolina (24-8) as the most vulnerable #4 seed when the line opened at -2.5 against VCU (27-7). Leading scorer Caleb Wilson is out for the rest of the season due to thumb surgery, forcing the Tar Heels to navigate the tournament without their star freshman and projected NBA lottery pick. VCU won the Atlantic 10 tournament and entered the Tournament on a 16-1 clip. Betting-wise, they’re only 17-17 ATS this season, but 9-12 ATS in their last 21 games.
The first four games will determine two #11 seeds. Miami Ohio (31-1), the pride of the MAC, is a mid-major pitted against SMU (20-13), which is a denizen of the ACC these days. The winner secures the #11 seed and squares off against #4 Tennessee (22-11).
UMass spoiled Miami’s perfect season when it was upset in the MAC tournament. Miami still earned an at-large bid via the First Four in Dayton. Expect the Redhawks to bounce back against SMU and pose a threat against Tennessee.
#12 Seeds: Akron Ascending
If you’re looking for a #12 to win outright, keep an eye on Akron (29-5). The most vulnerable #5 seed is Texas Tech (22-10), which lost star player JT Toppin to an ACL injury. They only opened as a -7.5 favorite against Akron. Since early January, Akron has gone 19-1. The Zips are riding a 10-game winning streak and won three games in three days to clinch the MAC tournament and secure an automatic bid.
Picking a #12 seed over a #5 seed is a common strategy for your pool; the key is to know when to take a contrarian stance. Sometimes betting the #5 seed to cover against an overvalued #12 seed is the optimal play.
According to opening lines, Vanderbilt (26-8) is the biggest favorite among #5 seeds at -11.5 over McNeese (28-5). McNeese, repping the Southland, is only 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games.
St. John’s (28-6) is the second favorite among #5 seeds at -10.5 against Northern Iowa (23-12). The selection committee screwed Rick Pitino and St. John’s even though they clinched first place in the Big East and won the conference tournament. The Johnnies won 19 out of their last 20 games. Betting-wise, they were 20-12-1 ATS, including 14-6 in their last 20 games.
#12 Northern Iowa finished in sixth place in the MVC but won four games in four days to secure the conference tournament and claim an automatic bid. It will be 12 days since their last game when they square off against a sizzling St. John’s. Northern Iowa is only 11-9 ATS in its last 20 games.
#13 Seeds: Live Dogs with Troy and Hofstra
This year’s #13 seeds lack upset potential with Hofstra (24-10), Hawaii (24-8), Troy (22-11), and Cal Baptist (25-8). However, you can extract some value by backing a couple of these dogs with the points. Teams from power conference giants like the SEC and Big Ten tend to sleepwalk in the first half of opening-round games, which makes them fadeworthy.
#4 Nebraska (26-6) lives and dies from the 3-point line. If they start out cold, it could be a long day against Troy (22-11) from the Sun Belt. Nebraska is 17-14-1 ATS, but 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games. Troy is 17-14 ATS, including 3-1 ATS in their last four games.
Hofstra (24-10), representing the CAA, is 21-11 ATS overall and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. Meanwhile, Alabama (23-9) struggles to cover with a 13-18 ATS record. They’re only 3-5 ATS since mid-February and covered only four times in their last 12 games as a favorite of -7 or more points. Aden Holloway, Bama’s second-best scorer, was arrested in a marijuana bust. His status for the Hofstra game is unknown.
#14 Seeds: Back Door Covers with Penn
Penn (18-11) finished third in the Ivy League but got hot at the right time. They edged out Harvard by two points, then Yale by four in an overtime thriller to win the Ivy tournament and punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
Penn opened as the largest dog among the #14 seeds at +24.5. It will be difficult to upend #3 Illinois (24-8), but Penn is a worthy back-door cover squad. They were the second-best betting team in the country with a 20-8 ATS clip, including 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. The Quakers also covered seven straight as an underdog.
Oddsmakers view Michigan State (25-7) as the most vulnerable #3 seed, opening as only a -16.5 favorite against North Dakota State (27-7). The Bison won the Summit League, but rank just #113 in KenPom compared to Michigan State at #9. The Spartans are only 15-15-2 ATS this season, including 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games, while NDSU is 19-13 ATS.
Gonzaga (30-3) is a school that doesn’t get much respect from bookies and bettors because they pad their record against West Coast Conference schools. Despite 30 victories, they only went 18-15 ATS, including 6-7 ATS in their last 13 WCC games. They’re no longer a perennial powerhouse, which means the casual fan might overvalue them as a #3 seed.
Kennesaw State (21-13) finished in sixth place in Conference USA, yet won three games in three days to win the C-USA tournament and earn an automatic bid as a #14 seed. There’s an argument to be made for a surging Kennesaw State to upend Gonzaga, but I like them more as a +19.5 dog. They’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
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