One of the easiest ways to handicap a Kentucky Derby is by starting at the back of the expected field. That is, finding the horses that can’t win, given the demands a modern Derby puts on its contestants.
That is, navigating a 10-furlong, 20-horse free-for-all. One that requires equal parts tactical speed, luck, and nascent ability. You need all of the above, whether you’re a closer, pace-setter, pace-presser, or stalker. Or whether you’re a favorite, sleeper, or longshot.
Speaking of longshots, we’ve seen three of those wear roses the last four years: Rich Strike at 80-1 in 2022, Mage at 15-1 in 2023, and Mystik Dan at 18-1 in 2024. Eventual Horse of the Year Sovereignty cooled that trend somewhat when he prevailed at nearly 8-1, but he was still the third choice among bettors, behind favored Journalism (3.42-1) and Sandman (5.77-1). Journalism finished a solid second by only 1 ¼ lengths; Sandman a lackluster seventh, 12 ½ lengths back.
But you have to start somewhere when it comes to constructing your tickets. And that somewhere is by identifying the horses who simply aren’t good enough to win a Derby.
Here are four horses you can immediately toss from your tickets:
Albus
You look at this son of Yaupon, trained by the up-and-coming Riley Mott, glance at his 4:2-0-1 record, and begin thinking to yourself, “Hmmm, we’ve got a good sleeper here.”
Let us disabuse you of that notion right now. And it won’t take long.
Albus earned his way into the Derby field by winning a woefully weak Wood Memorial that was easily the worst 200-point Derby prep on the trail. At nearly 12-1, he beat fellow Derby no-hoper Right to Party, who went off at 38.72-1. Both benefited from a lethally fast pace that this Derby field won’t come close to duplicating.
Albus is a closer in a field full of better horses of that genus, including likely favorite Renegade and top contender The Puma, both of whom have much better speed figures over their final furlong and final three furlongs in their last Derby prep than Albus. His final furlong (13.3 seconds) and final three furlongs (38.8) are nowhere near Derby contention.
And here’s where we mention the last Derby winner coming out of the Wood Memorial was Funny Cide, in 2003.
Six Speed
Here’s another colt who finds his way onto the board; Six Speed, the Not This Time progeny, hasn’t missed the board in five starts—3-1-1. And he’s the lone pace-setting colt in the field as of now. So what could go wrong?
Well, plenty. Let’s examine that 3-for-5 record for the moment. And what do we find? All five of this Kentucky-bred colt’s races have come in Dubai, which means he hasn’t faced anything resembling real competition. In the UAE Derby, he set a strong and comfortable pace and looked like he’d finish what he started.
Until he didn’t. Until fellow Derby contender Wonder Dean reeled him in and eventually held him off. Nobody is considering Wonder Dean to be a Derby threat, and we don’t consider the colt he vanquished to be one either. There’s too much talent to let Six Speed loose for longer than the first half or three-quarters of a mile.
Stark Contrast
We’ll start with a proviso here for Stark Contrast. There’s a good chance that, despite finishing second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks—thus earning his way into the Churchill Downs starting gate—this well-raced (6:3-2-0) colt should bug out of the Derby for the Grade 1 American Turf on the Derby undercard.
Should trainer Mike McCarthy make that call, he’d be doing everyone: himself, his connections, the bettors, and Stark Contrast, a big favor. Because all five times the son of Caravaggio has hit the board—including a narrow second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf—he’s done it on turf or the Tapeta surface he ran on at Turfway Park for the Jeff Ruby. Not only has he hit the board, but he’s also finished in the exacta.
Stark Contrast’s lone trip on dirt came last summer at Del Mar, where he finished a well-beaten fourth of six—11 ½ lengths behind Buetane, who wasn’t good enough to get into the Derby field. His hooves haven’t touched dirt in a race since. Even on the synthetic, Stark Contrast’s 38.9-second final three furlongs aren’t going to scare anyone here. And they won’t scare us into considering him on any Derby ticket.
Whatever Horse Draws Post 17
Consider this the Post of Death, because horses starting from post position 17 are 0-for-46. It’s the only post that never sends a horse to the winner’s circle. Last year’s unlucky contestant, Chunk of Gold, finished ninth.
Oh, but what about hitting the board, you ask? Horses coming out of post position 17 are 3-for-46 finishing in the money. The last top-five finisher out of this post was Don’t Get Mad, who finished fourth in the wild Derby of 2005.
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