Fernando Mendoza is the projected #1 pick for the Las Vegas Raiders in the 2026 NFL Draft, but the real intrigue begins with the rest of the Top 10.
Aside from Mendoza, the rest of this year’s quarterback class is not as promising as previous seasons. The incoming batch of QB prospects includes Ty Simpson (Alabama), Garrett Nussmeier (LSU), Drew Allar (Penn State), and Carson Beck (Miami).
According to BetMGM, Simpson is -210 odds to be selected in the first round, and his current price has been driven by late-cycle hype. His modest resume has not convinced his skeptics. Simpson has a career 11-4 record in one season as Alabama’s starter.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite to pick Simpson at +120. They have the second pick in the second round or #34 overall. The New York Jets also need a quarterback. With a pair of first-round picks and the top pick in the second round at #33 overall, the Jets are +195 odds to land Simpson.
BetMGM offers another prop bet on the number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round. The total is set at 1.5, and the Under pays +160. The Over pays -210 if you think either Simpson, Nussmeier, or anyone else sneaks into the first round.
Now let’s look at the betting favorites for the Top 10 picks:
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Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana) -10000
Mendoza won the Heisman and led Indiana to a national championship, which is why he’s a massive favorite as the #1 pick at -10000. The Raiders signed veteran gunslinger Kirk Cousins, and the current game plan is that he will start. Cousins will mentor Mendoza until new head coach Klint Kubiak feels the #1 pick is comfortable to take over. That could be later in the year or maybe next season. The Raiders have a flexible and patient timeline. They don’t want to rush Mendoza into action to play behind a porous offensive line.
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New York Jets: David Bailey (Edge, Texas Tech) -200
This might be the year the Jets finally turn their franchise around. Okay, you’ve heard that phrase before describing the laughingstock of the league. Maybe the “LOL Jets” are perpetually doomed. Then again, they have ample draft capital this year to address major roster holes.
The Jets have a choice between the top two defensive players in the draft in Arvell Reese (Ohio State) and David Bailey (Texas Tech). The Jets have notoriously bungled the draft over the last 30 years, but have never selected a defensive player higher than the third pick.
Reese was the slight betting favorite last week before Bailey surged ahead of him. Bailey is -200 to become the #2 pick in the draft, and Reese is +145. Scouts love Bailey’s advanced analytics with a career 18.7 percent pressure rate, including 20.4 percent in 2025, which is the third-highest mark in the last decade. Although Reese has more upside, he’s considered a work in progress. A pro-ready Bailey can make an immediate impact as a Week 1 starter for Gang Green.
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Arizona Cardinals: Arvell Reese (Edge/LB, Ohio State) +100
The NFC West is loaded with offensive juggernauts, so the Cardinals need to stock up on elite pass rushers. They will pick either Reese or Bailey, depending on who the Jets pick. Reese is the outright favorite as the third pick at +100, and Bailey is the second favorite at +275.
The Cardinals are looking to replace Kyler Murray, who signed with the Vikings, but they’d be wise to wait until Day 2 or 3 to select a quarterback.
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Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame) +140
Jeremiyah Love, the premier running back on the draft board, fills a need for the Titans, which is why he’s the favorite for the fourth pick at +140. The Titans’ defense is also in shambles. They could grab either Bailey (+500) or Reese (+650) if they’re available. If they prioritize defense, Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. (+500) or Ohio State’s Sonny Styles (+650) are also possibilities.
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New York Giants: Sonny Styles (LB, Ohio State) +200
With John Harbaugh at the helm, the Giants are expected to focus on defense. A ferocious linebacker like Sonny Styles is a Harbaugh-type player. He started three seasons for Ohio State and even won a national title in 2024. If they want to improve their secondary, then safety Caleb Downs (+500) is an option. He also played at Ohio State.
If the Giants decide to strengthen their offensive line to protect Jaxson Dart, then Francis Mauigoa (+375) emerges as a strong option with the fifth pick.
The Giants had only one running back rush over 1,000 yards in the last six seasons (Saquon Barkley in 2022). Cam Skattebo is returning from a gruesome injury, but his long-term health status is unknown. The Gants also have Tyrone Tracey and Devin Singletary on the roster, but they could make a bold move by selecting Love (+550) if the Titans pass on him.
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Cleveland Browns: Carnell Tate (WR Ohio State) +155
The Browns could tap into Ohio State’s wide receiver pipeline. The Buckeyes produced some of the NFL’s most exciting and talented WRs in recent years like Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njiba, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Emeke Ebuka. Carnell Tate, who has drawn comparisons to Olave, could be the next on that impressive list. The Browns would be foolish to pass on Tate (+155) at #6.
The Browns also need to revamp their offensive line. If they want a tough player who can dominate the trenches, options include Georgia’s Monroe Freeling (+500), Miami’s Francis Mauigoa (+525), or Utah’s Spencer Fano (+750).
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Washington Commanders: Mansoor Delane (CB, LSU) +500
The Commanders find themselves in a prime spot at #7. They have the flexibility to grab a top-tier player who slips out of the Top 6. If the draft follows a predictable script, they can still secure a standout player.
If Washington leans offense, they can pounce on Love (+200) if the Titans or Giants don’t pick the best running back in the draft. If the Browns focus on their O-line, the Commanders could provide Jayden Daniels another offensive weapon in Tate (+450).
On the defensive side, the Commanders can’t go wrong with Styles (+400) if the Giants pass on him. Mansoor Delane (+500) saw his draft stock rising in recent weeks, and the LSU star can help the Commanders bolster their secondary. Delane is the favorite to become the first cornerback selected in the draft at -200. If they’re looking for an explosive pass rusher, then Rueben Bain Jr. (+600) is a great fit.
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New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain Jr. (Edge, Miami) +360
Bain anchored the defense for the Miami Hurricanes during their magical journey to the National Championship game. Some scouts don’t like Bain’s short arms, which is why he probably slips to the back end of the Top 10. The Saints would gladly add Bain (+360) if he’s available.
If Tate (+375) is somehow available, he can join fellow Buckeye Chris Olave to create a lethal one-two WR punch in New Orleans.
The Saints need help in their secondary, so they’ll gladly add Delane (+500) or Jermod McCoy (+550) if they’re available. Safety Caleb Downs (+800) is another viable option.
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Kansas City Chiefs: Jermod McCoy (CB, Tennessee) +650
The Chiefs have been so good during the Patrick Mahomes era that this is their first Top 10 pick in almost a decade. It’s difficult to predict what happens with the ninth pick, which is why six players are lumped together and priced between +400 and +800.
Bain (+400) and Delane (+450) are the favorites if either slips. Jermod McCoy (+650) missed the 2025 season while recovering from a torn ACL, but he impressed scouts with a 4.38 time in the 40-yard dash. At +125 odds, McCoy is the second favorite as the first CB drafted behind Delane.
If the Chiefs focus on keeping Mahomes healthy, they could add an offensive lineman like Mauioga (+700) or Fano (+700) if they’re available.
If they’re looking at WRs, then Tate (+800) is a no-brainer if he’s still on the board. The Chiefs could also take a flier on Jordyn Tyson (+1100), regarded as the second-best WR in the draft. Former NFL star Hines Ward coached Tyson at Arizona State. He’s the type of flexible player that Andy Reid likes because he can play all three receiver spots.
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Cincinnati Bengals: Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State) +333
The Bengals have a subpar secondary, and they would welcome safety Caleb Downs, who played his collegiate ball up the road in Columbus for the last two seasons. Defense is a priority in this draft, so they’ll gladly select anyone who slips like Delane (+500), McCoy (+500), Bain (+550), or Styles (+600).
The Bengals could also invest in an offensive lineman to preserve Joe Burrow’s health. Mauigoa (+1300) would be a steal if he’s still out there. Otherwise, they could grab the versatile Fano (+1800), who was a three-year starter at Utah in both tackle spots.
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