If you bet on the Yankees and Arsenal last week, you were rewarded. But we’re sorry about missing on the Detroit Pistons coming back so strong, the Montreal Canadiens losing game 6 at home against the Lighting (but winning in Tampa to take the series in seven games) and a top 10 for Tommy Fleetwood in the Cadillac Championship (he finished in a tie for 23rd).
So our record for the last two weeks is 7-3, nothing to sneeze at. So here’s our five bets for the upcoming weekend.
Ducks Quack at Home?
Friday, May 8
Playoff hockey continues in the NHL. And there’s nothing like the intensity on the road to the Stanley Cup. The young Anaheim Ducks outslugged the veteran Edmonton Oilers in Round 1, but now they are facing an equally difficult opponent.
The Logic: Before the Ducks evened up the series, 1-1, against the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday, the Ducks went from being a live dog at home on Friday to almost even money. The Ducks are now a -105 underdog to VGK’s -115. In the last series against the Utah Mammoths, the Knights went down 2-1 when losing to Utah on the road. The same could happen here, but VGK could also come roaring back to win the series in six or seven games. But this game looks like the Ducks will waddle again.
Back to the Yankees
Saturday, May 9
We’re going back to the well with the New York Yankees, although they are on the road in Milwaukee, facing a Brewers team that is fighting for the lead in the National League Central. It may be a pitcher’s battle, so let’s see if the vaunted Yankees power can break through.
The Logic: The Yankees scheduled starter, Cam Schlittler, has been excellent this season. He’s 5-1 with a 1.52 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts in 47.1 innings. He’s limiting baserunners well, with a WHIP under 0.90. He’s missing bats at a strong rate with 53 strikeouts in 47.1 innings.
For the Brewers, starter Kyle Harrison has been pretty solid this season. The clearest snapshot says he’s 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, with 35 strikeouts. He’s limiting damage well overall, which is what you want from a starter.
He looks like a good, not dominant starter: reliable enough to keep Milwaukee in games, but not the kind of arm you assume will shut teams down every start. Against a strong lineup, the matchup matters a lot more than with an ace-type pitcher. And with Judge, Bellinger, Chisholm, and maybe Stanton if he’s healthy, the Yankee hitters can get hot.
Craven Cottage Jinx
Saturday, May 9
With Fulham getting bounced last week by Arsenal, we’ll take another shot at one of their opponents. Bournemouth has been unbeaten in 13 straight Premier League matches, so we’ll take the safe bet on a win by the Cherries or a draw.
The Logic: Even though the Whites are at home in comfortable Craven Cottage, the side hasn’t played to its potential. While they are pretty far above relegation standing 12th in the current table, they have been more inconsistent and have struggled to score in recent matches. One preview notes Fulham have conceded in 12 straight home league matches as a dog, which is a warning sign for their defensive ceiling here.
Fulham is a slight underdog, so the Bournemouth bet is safe.
Sun Screen
Friday, May 8
Yes, we know the NBA playoffs are in full swing, but let’s focus on the ladies this week. The WNBA season is just getting started, and the New York Liberty is one of the favorites to win the championship, while the Connecticut Sun is playing its last season at Mohegan Sun before moving to Houston as the Comets.
The Logic: The spread on this game is 15.5 points favoring the Liberty, but New York recently beat Connecticut 79-67 in a scrappy, playoff-style game. That game also showed the Liberty controlling the scoring pace and spacing well. The matchup history has also been favorable to New York in recent seasons, even though Connecticut has had stretches of success in the long-term series.
Connecticut can hang around if it wins the paint battle and keeps the Liberty from getting hot from three, but New York’s overall talent edge is still the main story. But the spread is big, so take the Sun +15.5 over laying the huge Liberty number.
Defenders Rolling
Saturday, May 9
Last week, the defending United Football League champion DC Defenders took apart the Dallas Renegades. The Defenders so far are running away from their competitors with a 5-1 record. The Louisville Kings are mired in 6th place with a 2-4 record.
The Logic: The Defenders quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has 981 passing yards and is clearly the elite player in the UFL. DC also has a much bigger rushing advantage, led by Deon Jackson’s 284 yards compared with James Robinson’s 95 for the Kings.
The price will be high, but take the Defenders on both the moneyline and the spread (+3). Louisville becomes interesting only if the spread is large enough to give them a cushion. But the matchup data also points toward DC having value both straight up and against the spread. Do it.
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