Well, Golden Tempo is back for Round 2 in the third jewel of the Triple Crown—the 158th Belmont Stakes. So is his chief “rival,” Renegade, who had it made in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago—until 23-1 Golden Tempo nipped him at the wire.
And the 1-2 Derby finishers pick up Saturday where they left off five weeks ago, with three other Derby expats and four other candidates at Saratoga Race Course. The celebrated upstate New York site of American racing pinch-hits for Belmont Park for the third and final time. Belmont Park’s renovations are scheduled to finish in September, and that track will pick up its mantle as the 1 ½-mile “Test of the Champion” next June.
Once again, due to Saratoga’s structure, the Belmont Stakes will be contested at 1 ¼ miles—the same distance as the Derby. Speaking of the Derby, Golden Tempo and Renegade may be the two headliners for the Belmont Stakes, capping off a spectacular 14-race card highlighted by six Grade 1 events at the Spa.
Belmont Belief
But the way this nine-horse field is situated, don’t expect the Belmont Stakes to be Derby 2.0.
That’s because both members of the Derby exacta are deep closers in a race typically hostile to that particular running genus. Only two horses, Jazil in 2006 and Creator in 2016, captured the Belmont Stakes after trailing by more than 10 lengths. In seven of the last 10 years and 15 times since the turn of the century, the winner has been within three lengths of the leader at the half-mile mark.
Need more proof on the benefits of early speed? Since Jazil’s closing-from-the-clouds victory, 16 of the 20 winners were within 4 ½ lengths after the first half mile. That does include last year’s winner—Sovereignty. He may be a closer, but at the half-mile mark, he was in fourth, only 1 ½ lengths back.
So yes, you want to be on or near the lead, especially since Saratoga is a speed-favoring track and has been for two generations. But you don’t want to be a pace-setter. Only three horses since 2000 have set the pace to win the race. And two of those were Triple Crown winners: American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018. The third was 38-1 freak-show Da’Tara in 2008.
OK, so deep closers and pace-setters need not apply to the winner’s circle. That leaves pace-pressers and stalkers as the most likely Belmont Stakes winners. And yes, before we forget. Don’t be a favorite.
Betting Favorites
Favorites, especially in the two previous Belmont Stakes editions at Saratoga, are out of favor. Last year, favored Journalism finished second. The year before, Sierra Leone took third. Only seven times since 2000 did the favorite run to his odds, the last being Mo Donegal in 2022. He capped a three-race streak of Belmont favorites prevailing, following Tiz the Law (2000) and Essential Quality (2021).
That’s another black mark against Renegade, who opened as the 2-1 morning-line favorite. You can expect the Derby runner-up and one of the best horses in the field to hit the board; he hasn’t missed it in six races. And you can expect him to take more money. Same with Golden Tempo (9-2), who likely won’t leave the starting gate Saturday at those odds.
That brings us to who we do like, starting with Chief Wallabee (3-1). The fourth-place finisher in the Derby actually is the second betting choice here, ahead of Golden Tempo. Had it not been for third-place runner Ocelli bumping him in the deep stretch, he might have factored in the trifecta. As it was, he ran one of the strongest races of any Derby runner, finishing only three lengths back.
Chief Wallabee’s stalking style, combined with the expected soft pace, perfectly fits the profile of a Belmont Stakes winner. That Derby and a solid third in what was the best Derby prep of the winter/spring—the Florida Derby—gave the son of Constitution the foundation for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott to win his second consecutive Belmont. He prevailed with Sovereignty last year.
Also Rans
That brings us to the colt who beat Chief Wallabee in two of those Florida Derby preps: Commandment (6-1). We’re going to remind you of the “forgotten” colt in this field, who finished a troubled seventh in the Derby. Before everyone forgot who this Into Mischief colt was after that also-ran effort, Commandment won four consecutive races and should use his stalking style to rebound nicely at what should be a good price.
If Commandment slipped your mind, you’ve undoubtedly forgotten about Emerging Market (6-1). He was a brief factor in the Derby, zeroing in on stretch leaders Danon Bourbon and So Happy, before hitting the wall and finishing 10th. This was likely a result of his light, three-race foundation punctuated by his victory in the Louisiana Derby. But trainer Chad Brown—who has a third of the nine-horse field in this race—has stud jockey Flavien Prat in the irons and confidence this Candy Ride colt can factor in this field. Expect Emerging Market to emerge further and—if not win—find his way onto the board.
This Belmont Stakes doesn’t feature a deep core of sleepers. But one to watch is the second of Brown’s three entries: Growth Equity (12-1). A rarity in that he not only hasn’t run a Triple Crown race, but skipped the Derby trail. The progeny of 2016 Derby winner Nyquist atoned for those oversights by winning the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes May 9 at Aqueduct. That’s a path taken by two other Belmont winners this century: Tonalist in 2014 and Arcangelo three years ago.
That’s the biggest pelt on Growth Equity’s mantle, and he hasn’t missed the board in four races (2-2-0). His pressing style and improving form may not win this race, but you should put him in the mix on your tickets.
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