The Genesis Scottish Open isn’t a major championship. Really, it isn’t. But we understand how the casual golf fan and bettor can make that mistake, because this week’s co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and DP World Tour has a world-class, major field aura.
We’ll get the housekeeping out of the way first. Played at the Renaissance Golf Club, 20 miles east of Edinburgh for the seventh consecutive year, the Scottish Open serves as the primary tune-up for next week’s Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. This explains why you’ll see six of the world’s top-10 ranked players in the field. Yes, it has a major feel to it, even if it doesn’t have a major title to it.
Course Correction
Renaissance plays to 7,282 yards at par-70. It has only three par-5s and five par-3s, with greens among the slowest on any tour. Large, with slopes and undulations, the greens register a glacial 10 on the Stimpmeter. This all adds up to demanding precise iron play, because Renaissance featured the lowest average of total distance of putts. It’s ranked first, fourth and T2 in proximity to the hole since 2023.
Hit the ball to the proper part of the green. Analyst Wes Reynolds of VSiN noted that the top 12 finishers last year averaged 3.1 Strokes Gained: Approach. He added that in 2024, 13 of the top 17 players gained at least 1.6 total strokes on approach, and in 2023, six of the top seven on the leaderboard gained at least 2.3 with their irons.
This sounds simple, right? Well, we did mention this is the SCOTTISH Open. As in Scotland. As in rain and wind possibilities anytime—or all the time. The forecast for this week is moderate winds that will fluctuate in direction and highs not expected to surpass 70 degrees.
Renaissance comes with five-inch rough, testing what a field of bombers is; the average driving distance in last year’s event surpassed 300 yards. But with narrower fairways and the ever-present wind, gaining strokes off the tee is almost as important.
Factoring all of that in—along with form and course function—who are the players in this all-star field to watch this week?
Rory McIlroy (+1000 to win, +200 Top 5 at BetMGM)
Yes, there’s chalk on this one. But why shouldn’t there be, considering who we’re talking about here? You’re getting 10-1 on a player who won here in 2023, finished T4 in 2024 and T2 last year. That T4 is his worst finish here, and his 2.18 Strokes Gained Per Round in his five trips here is the best in the field.
Off-the-tee, McIlroy is, well, McIlroy. He’s averaging 323.2 yards per measured drive, which is third in this field. His 0.875 Strokes Gained: Off the Tee leads this field. As inconsistent as McIlroy can be at times, and yes, admit you were thinking this as you were reading it, he’s fifth in the field in bogey avoidance and—wait for it—has finished the top-5 in a quarter of his events this year. And outside of a T32 outlier at the U.S. Open, he’s found his way into the top 20 in his last five events.
We’ll eat a little chalk this week to get tasty pieces of this.
Wyndham Clark (+2800 to Win, +225 Top 10 at BetMGM)
You’re playing the hottest player in the world right now, and we’re here to remind you the U.S. Open champion is currently riding a scorching tsunami of form. The results from his last five events read T5, 1, T11, 3, 1. Take it back to the Masters in early April, and Clark has seven top 20s in nine starts. He’s 8-for-9 in made cuts.
One reason why Clark is rolling is the way he’s rolling his putts. He’s gained 1.22 strokes per round putting during those nine events, and the image of him making everything he looked at during the U.S. Open wasn’t a mirage. He was making everything he looked at. Somehow, Clark is a middling 21st in the field for the season in Strokes Gained: Putting, but nobody is more confident on the greens right now.
Now, we mention Clark has four top 25 finishes in four trips to the Renaissance Club. He’s gained strokes off the tee and strokes on the greens, leading to 10th and 11th-place finishes the last two years. And compare his form now to then. You simply can’t leave him off your tickets this week.
Tyrrell Hatton (+2800 to win at BetMGM)
What? We’re picking a LIV player not named Brooks Koepka or Jon Rahm this week? In a non-major? We’re only able to do that because this is a co-sanctioned event with the DP World Tour, where Hatton is a member.
You’ve probably forgotten about the volatile Hatton, since he’s been relegated to pitching his fits in the forgotten realm of LIV. But Hatton hasn’t pitched too many fits of late, considering he finished T7 at the U.S. Open and won LIV Golf Andalusia in Spain. He’s racked up four top 10s in his nine LIV starts, and his ball-striking has been sublime. Hatton has gained 0.989 strokes approach this season.
Hatton’s Renaissance Club resume further explains his necessary presence on your tickets. In four starts there, the last coming in 2023, Hatton has never finished worse than his T24 in 2022. He finished T6 in 2023 and has gained nearly 1.7 strokes per round in his four starts. And, Hatton is one of the best links players in the world, winning the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship three times.
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