It’s the conference that brought us the last three national champions: blue bloods Michigan (2023) and Ohio State (2024), followed by out-of-the-blue Indiana last year. So could we see a fourth Big Ten team continue the trend?
Yes, we’re talking about you, Oregon.
The Ducks are currently the fourth favorite on BetMGM at +800 to give the Big Ten its fourth consecutive national championship and third in the 12-team playoff era, sitting behind favored Ohio State (+600), Notre Dame and Texas (both +650). The defending champion Hoosiers are also +800.
Speaking of Ohio State, the Buckeyes were the only Big Ten team prior to this run to win a national championship this century: in 2002 and 2014.
We like the Buckeyes. And how can we not like Indiana? But this year, we like Oregon to finally break through and claim the Big Ten title.
Along with our reasons why, here are some other Big Ten bets we like this season.
Oregon to Win the Big Ten (+270), Over 10.5 Wins (+100) and to win the CFP (+800)
Yes, head coach Dan Lanning is 48-8 in his four years at Eugene. And yes, amid that success, he’s had a difficult time beating the best teams, going 1-5 against an eventual national title game participant. Yes, the Ducks were grotesquely exposed and dismantled by Indiana twice last year.
And yes, we are all-in on the Ducks this year.
Why? Oregon’s schedule, for starters. The Ducks will be favored in at least 11 games this season, with an underdog tag likely for their November 7 showdown at Ohio State. The only other potential land mines are September 26 at USC, November 14 vs. Michigan and November 25 against rival Washington. With the latter two of those at home, “land mine” may be an overstatement.
Why, 2.0? Oregon tackles that schedule returning 14 starters from a team that ranked second in explosive offensive plays and seventh in explosive defensive plays. That includes QB Dante Moore (3,565 yards, 30 TDs) and a plethora of weapons in RBs Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr., who combined for 1,323 yards and 20 TDs, and WRs Dakorien Moore and Jeremiah McClellan (a combined 72 catches for 1,054 yards and six TDs). To that, add three blue-chip recruits and a flotilla of transfers.
Defensively, the riches extend further, with DTs A’Mauri Washington and Bear Alexander and OLBs Matayo Ulagalelei and Teitum Tuioto wanting to build on their combined 26.5 tackles for loss, 15.5 sacks and eight pass breakups. The secondary is obscenely talented with returning CB Brandon Finney Jr and S Aaron Flowers welcoming transfers Koi Perich (Minnesota) and Carl Williams IV (Baylor).
The only question, aside from Lanning having to replace both his coordinators after Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal) took Power 4 head coaching jobs, is rebuilding an offensive line that lost three starters. We’ll take our chances that Dan can finally get the Ducks soaring over the top.
Nebraska Under 6.5 Wins (-140 at BetMGM)
One thing we’ve learned over the last, well, 15 years is it’s never a bad idea to selectively short the Cornhuskers—especially late in the season.
And this is one of those times to selectively short Nebraska. Yes, the Cornhuskers return 12 starters. But no, one of them is not QB Dylan Raiola, who transferred to—all together now—OREGON. Yes, Nebraska does have one of the older teams in the conference, with 19 of the 22 projected starters either juniors or seniors.
And yes, those veterans are in for a late—and tough—trip.
Here’s how we see this playing out. Nebraska will delight their fans with a 5-0 sprint out of the gate, courtesy of gimmes against the “Murderer’s Row” of Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota, Michigan State and Maryland.
Then comes the real Murderer’s Row, starting with Indiana, followed by at Oregon, Washington, at Illinois, at Rutgers, Ohio State and at Iowa. Yes, some of those games are winnable. But keep in mind Nebraska coach Matt Rhule is 4-9 on the road in conference games.
Find two wins there, especially with a new QB in UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea, an OL that was 115th in sacks allowed last year, and a defense that couldn’t stop the run (121st in yards allowed before contact, 86th in yards allowed after contact). We dare you.
To all of that, let’s pile on with this inescapable tidbit: Nebraska hasn’t won more than seven games in a season over the last nine years. Finally, the Cornhuskers are 26-54 in those nine years.
Yes, it’s another good time to short the Cornhuskers.
Michigan State Under 4.5 (-165 at BetMGM)
Speaking of shorting, here’s a short you might want to parlay with Nebraska to build some value. Only unlike the Cornhuskers—who won seven games last year—you’re buying Sparty at the bottom.
Michigan State welcomes ex-Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald after purging Jonathan Smith, the latter lasting only two seasons. Fitzgerald did wonders at Evanston before being forced out in a hazing scandal. But any wonders he has for the Spartans will be put on hold for future attractions.
We won’t spend much time here, other than to say Michigan State in its current incarnation of little depth, low physicality and talent gaps everywhere has a difficult path to five wins. Especially going from two likely wins against MAC teams into the meat grinder of Notre Dame—at South Bend.
They do miss Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, USC and Ohio State. But after those two MAC wins, we’re not seeing three more reasons not to short Sparty.
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