Yes, we fell into the trap of loving Ole Miss—or hating Florida—too much. It really was a trap game and a lesson in understanding the always-needed quality of adaptability in wagering. After foundering for most of the last decade-and-a-half, the Gators finally seem to have found their missing coaching savior in Jon Sumrall. Barring any unpleasantries going forward, Florida is a team to watch—especially now.
As for our Oregon-USC total (61.5), the two obliged, scoring 68 points amid one of the ugliest plays you have ever seen on a football field—the poleaxing of a sliding, prone Oregon QB Dante Moore by USC LB Desman Stephens II. Moore went to the hospital with a concussion, and Stephens, who was ejected for targeting, was suspended for one game.
As for our Under-48.5 total in the Utah-Iowa State game? Thank goodness for that half-point, because we needed it in the Utes’ 31-17 victory.
We’re skipping the overhyped matchups this week to focus on three games only the diehards are watching. No College GameDay crews, no media circus, and just a single Top-25 team in the mix. Finding hidden value in these under-the-radar spots is easily the best part of betting college football.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 6-6.
What Happened to Our Go-To Wager?
Savvy readers of this space remember our favorite betting trend: the Service Academy Under. It was as reliable a go-to as there is in college football. Take this series. Between 2020 and 2023, the Under was 3-0-1, with the push happening in 2020 with Air Force’s 40-7 victory.
However… the last two years have turned this trend into a non-friend. Two years ago, the two combined for 41 points. Last year, they broke the bank, racking up 65. We’re left scratching our collective heads, wondering where those defenses that produced combined scores in the 20s went.
Thus far, they’re AWOL. Air Force flew to a 2-1 record behind totals of 34, 70, and 69 points, surrendering 38 to North Dakota State and 33 to Nevada. Navy, meanwhile, shipped out totals of 44-68 and 57, allowing 38 to Florida Atlantic and 24 to UAB—both losses.
Make no mistake. We’re going to see option offenses and plenty of running: both on the Falcon Stadium turf and with the clock. Air Force has the second-highest rushing rate and Navy the fifth among FBS schools. The Midshipmen average 332.3 yards per game on the ground (No. 3 in FBS), while the Falcons are second at 333.7.
So yes, it looks like status quo. But when the defenses can’t keep up, we’re trending away from our once-favorite trend.
Best Bet: Over-46.5 (-108 at Caesars Sportsbook)
More Agony for the Aggies
We’ll admit it now. It doesn’t feel right to type the words “Utah State visits Boise State in the Pac-12 opener for both teams.” But here we are, and here they are.
Despite their 1-3 record, there are reasons to look seriously at the Aggies catching three TDs. They nearly beat Washington as 27.5-point underdogs, losing by only two points. They gave FCS power Idaho State problems before falling, 27-19. And they’re allowing only 22 points a game defensively—good for a respectable 69th among FBS teams.
And yet… we’re selling Utah State. Completely. The Aggies’ 11 turnovers are tied with a horrific Sacramento State team for most in FBS. Their QB, Grady Brosterhous, shows this unpleasant trend: four TDs to six interceptions, including three in that loss to Washington. And Utah State is ranked in the nether regions of FBS in most offensive categories, including yards (319/125th), yards per play (4.9/125th), rushing yards (116.5/122nd), passing yards (203.2/104th), and points per game (13/137th). Note that there are 138 FBS teams.
Boise State, meanwhile, is the flip side of all this. Behind QB Maddux Madsen (814 yards, nine TDs, zero interceptions) and RB Dylan Riley (592 yards, three TDs), the No. 22 Broncos average nearly 34 points a game. They’re 3-1 ATS this season, including a 32-7 pummeling of Mid-American Conference favorite Western Michigan and a 34-27 loss at Oregon—as 25.5-point underdogs.
Oh, and here’s where we add the coup de gras to Utah State. Boise State has won the last 10 meetings. The Broncos have covered in eight of the 10—while scoring 40 points or more in six.
Best Bet: Boise State -20.5 (-108 at BetMGM)
Sun Devils Shine Bright
Here’s one of those games we love: an under-the-radar West Coast night game nobody outside of the fan bases pays attention to.
Perhaps you remember two weeks ago that Arizona State went to London and beat Kansas, 24-17. And perhaps you remember that Baylor is one play away from being undefeated and ranked. Had Baylor QB DJ Lagway’s two-point conversion pass to tight end Matthew Klopfenstein not fallen short, the Bears would have opened their season with a victory over Auburn—instead of a 17-16 defeat—and come into Sun Devil Stadium 4-0.
You probably don’t. But let’s remind you how competitive these two are. Last year, the Sun Devils prevailed, 27-24, in a true rockfight of a game. This year, they’re competitive in offense (Baylor averages nearly 436 yards a game; ASU 426), defense (ASU allows nearly 286; Baylor 306). Baylor’s defense is more feral, allowing an average of 13 points a game and averaging nearly four sacks a game (fifth). In last week’s 23-13 beating of Colorado, the Bears were a fantasy football dream defense: rolling up five sacks, 13 tackles for loss and a fumble recovery.
And yet… we like Arizona State’s chances for breaking out offensively. We like the fact that the Sun Devils are 5-2 ATS when coming off a bye week under head coach Kenny Dillingham. We like the bye week for a coach like Dillingham, one of the biggest sleeper coaches in the country. We like the fact that they are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS as a home favorite giving seven or fewer points. And we love games like this with spreads like this.
Best Bet: Arizona State -3.5 (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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